Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).</li>
<li>TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.</li>
<li>TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.


TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Taiwan startup secures military contract for anti-drone tech, expanding manufacturing in mobile sector</li><li>Dixon sees phone sales spike, eyes display fab with India semiconductor incentive</li><li>Samsung delays DRAM development, CG Power granted subsidy for OSAT facility, Poland faces US sanctions, Taiwan quake impacts semiconductor production, ByteDance dominates AI chatbot market, Broadcom and Marvell compete in ASIC opportunities</li></ul>

Taiwan startup secures military contract for anti-drone tech, expanding manufacturing in mobile sectorDixon sees phone sales spike, eyes display fab with India semiconductor incentiveSamsung delays DRAM development, CG Power granted subsidy for OSAT facility, Poland faces US sanctions, Taiwan quake impacts semiconductor production, ByteDance dominates AI chatbot market, Broadcom and Marvell compete in ASIC opportunities

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Jan-2025): Taiwan startup wins military deal for anti-drone tech.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Fallen But Remains in Historically Extreme Territory</li>
<li>UMC: -3.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +0.3% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Fallen But Remains in Historically Extreme Territory
UMC: -3.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
ASE: +0.3% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

<ul>
<li>UMC Results This Week; Insight Into Supply/Demand Environment for More Mature Semiconductor Segments</li>
<li>Nvidia and TSMC Announce Partnership in Silicon Photonics Technology -- Will Enable More Energy-Efficient AI</li>
<li>TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth </li>
</ul>


UMC Results This Week; Insight Into Supply/Demand Environment for More Mature Semiconductor Segments
Nvidia and TSMC Announce Partnership in Silicon Photonics Technology -- Will Enable More Energy-Efficient AI
TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>AI related demand accounted for ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025</li>
<li>5 year growth CAGR of 20%, at the top end of the previously guided 15-20% range</li>
<li>On track for $100 billion revenue in 2025, and most likely, $200 billion by 2030</li>
</ul>


AI related demand accounted for ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025
5 year growth CAGR of 20%, at the top end of the previously guided 15-20% range
On track for $100 billion revenue in 2025, and most likely, $200 billion by 2030


Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Jan-2025): Taiwan startup wins military deal for anti-drone tech.

Taiwan startup wins military contract, Dixon expands phone sales, Samsung delays DRAM development, CG Power receives subsidy in India, Poland faces...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

UMC will report results this week. Nvidia and TSMC partnership in silicon photonics to tackle AI's high energy problem.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. The Juggernaut Accelerates!

AI related demand ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025. 5 year growth CAGR 20%, >$100 billion...

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

​Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Jan-2025): Taiwan startup wins military deal for anti-drone tech.

Taiwan startup wins military contract, Dixon expands phone sales, Samsung delays DRAM development, CG Power receives subsidy in India, Poland faces...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology

​UMC will report results this week. Nvidia and TSMC partnership in silicon photonics to tackle AI's high energy problem.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. The Juggernaut Accelerates!

AI related demand ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025. 5 year growth CAGR 20%, >$100 billion...

William Keating

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

UMC will report results this week. Nvidia and TSMC partnership in silicon photonics to tackle AI's high energy problem.