Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>The 1Q24F outlook is still showing a decline, with a slightly increase in revenue of 2% QoQ. However, the GM is expected to decrease to 9-11% from 16.4% in 4Q23.</li>
<li>Management predicts that there will be a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F. Revenue in 2024F is expected to grow annually by mid-single-digit.</li>
<li>The main areas of growth for SMIC in 2024F will be in mobile phones, smart homes, IoT, and computing.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q24F outlook is still showing a decline, with a slightly increase in revenue of 2% QoQ. However, the GM is expected to decrease to 9-11% from 16.4% in 4Q23.
Management predicts that there will be a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F. Revenue in 2024F is expected to grow annually by mid-single-digit.
The main areas of growth for SMIC in 2024F will be in mobile phones, smart homes, IoT, and computing.


SMIC (981.HK): The GM Reaches a New Low of 9-11% in 1Q24F, Despite Revenue Growing by 2% QoQ.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE &amp; Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting</li>
<li>Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb &amp; March</li>
<li>TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home</li>
</ul>


Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE &amp; Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting
Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb &amp; March
TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,458.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,072mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Mega Financial, Umc, Alchip Tech, Delta Elec, Chailease, Asustek Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,458.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,072mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Mega Financial, Umc, Alchip Tech, Delta Elec, Chailease, Asustek Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 2nd): TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Umc

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/feng-tay-enterprise-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18329:1" rel="noopener">Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT)</a> in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip</a> is trading 330% higher from a year ago and this inclusion will come on the heels of the stock being added to global indices in second half of 2023.</li>
<li>Short interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alchip-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20219:1" rel="noopener">Alchip Technologies (3661 TT)</a> has more than halved over the last week and the stock price has moved higher.</li>
</ul>



Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) could replace Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT) in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the March rebalance.

Alchip is trading 330% higher from a year ago and this inclusion will come on the heels of the stock being added to global indices in second half of 2023.
Short interest in Alchip Technologies (3661 TT) has more than halved over the last week and the stock price has moved higher.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Short Covering Drives Alchip (3661 TT) Higher

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD63.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD63.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

SMIC (981.HK): The GM Reaches a New Low of 9-11% in 1Q24F, Despite Revenue Growing by 2% QoQ.

SMIC's 1Q24F outlook predicts a slight revenue increase but a large decrease in GM. SMIC expects a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F, with growth...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 2nd): TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Short Covering Drives Alchip (3661 TT) Higher

Alchip was added to global indices in the second half of 2023 and could now be added to the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Feng Tay has dropped in price over...

Brian Freitas

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SMIC (981.HK): The GM Reaches a New Low of 9-11% in 1Q24F, Despite Revenue Growing by 2% QoQ.

​SMIC's 1Q24F outlook predicts a slight revenue increase but a large decrease in GM. SMIC expects a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F, with growth...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

​Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Feb 2nd): TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Umc

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer, Unimicron...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Short Covering Drives Alchip (3661 TT) Higher

Alchip was added to global indices in the second half of 2023 and could now be added to the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Feng Tay has dropped in price over...

Brian Freitas

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech, Wiwynn, TSMC

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Wt, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Alchip Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SMIC's 1Q24F outlook predicts a slight revenue increase but a large decrease in GM. SMIC expects a double U-shaped recovery in 2024F, with growth...

Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...