Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.</li>
<li>How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.</li>
<li>Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.</li>
</ul>


We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.
How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.
Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.


China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off -- Nvidia CEO unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer investment plan with Hon Hai, TSMC as key partners.</li>
<li>
Nvidia Opens Up Ecosystem with new "NVLink Fusion" -- A strategic move to cement long-term platform dominance.</li>
<li>
PC Monitor -- Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs' Next Edge AI Shift </li>
</ul>



COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off -- Nvidia CEO unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer investment plan with Hon Hai, TSMC as key partners.

Nvidia Opens Up Ecosystem with new "NVLink Fusion" -- A strategic move to cement long-term platform dominance.

PC Monitor -- Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs' Next Edge AI Shift 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off -- Nvidia CEO Unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer Investment

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +19.2% Premium; Rebounded from Previous Lows, Consider Shorting ADR Spread at 20% or Higher</li>
<li>ASE: +6.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ChipMOS: +3.4% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +19.2% Premium; Rebounded from Previous Lows, Consider Shorting ADR Spread at 20% or Higher
ASE: +6.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
ChipMOS: +3.4% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Rebounds Back to Recent Highs; ChipMOS Premium at Extreme

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel (INTC US)</a> is starting to look less competitive.</li>
<li>According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.
</li>
<li>While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.</li>
</ul>



TSMC (2330 TT) recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor Intel (INTC US) is starting to look less competitive.
According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.

While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.


TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

<ul>
<li>
TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs</li>
<li>
ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long</li>
<li>
CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR</li>
</ul>



TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs

ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long

CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off -- Nvidia CEO Unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer Investment

Nvidia CEO announces investment plan for Taiwan AI Supercomputer with key partners, Asus warns of PC slowdown; but remains strongly positioned for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Rebounds Back to Recent Highs; ChipMOS Premium at Extreme

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off -- Nvidia CEO Unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer Investment

​Nvidia CEO announces investment plan for Taiwan AI Supercomputer with key partners, Asus warns of PC slowdown; but remains strongly positioned for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Rebounds Back to Recent Highs; ChipMOS Premium at Extreme

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

​TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nvidia CEO announces investment plan for Taiwan AI Supercomputer with key partners, Asus warns of PC slowdown; but remains strongly positioned for...

TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...