Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> has lost nearly 30% of its value since its mid-January peak—half of that decline occurred by early March, prior to Trump’s tariff announcement. </li>
<li>
The stock is very oversold, although it bounced off its lows last week, and reached 903 this Monday. This insight will analyze how far this rebound can go.
</li>
<li>Earnings will be reported on April 17. Our model suggests the stock has room to move in either direction—the results will be the catalyst. Check out our targets.
</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) has lost nearly 30% of its value since its mid-January peak—half of that decline occurred by early March, prior to Trump’s tariff announcement. 

The stock is very oversold, although it bounced off its lows last week, and reached 903 this Monday. This insight will analyze how far this rebound can go.

Earnings will be reported on April 17. Our model suggests the stock has room to move in either direction—the results will be the catalyst. Check out our targets.



TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rapid changes in US's tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI's forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.</li>
<li>Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.</li>
<li>Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&amp;M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.</li>
</ul>


Rapid changes in US's tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI's forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.
Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.
Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&amp;M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.


Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline</li>
<li>Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared</li>
<li>PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline
Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared
PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported March 2025 revenues of NT$285.96 billion, up 10% MoM and up 46.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Revenue for January through March 2025 totaled NT$839.25 billion, an increase of 41.6% YoY.</li>
<li>At the forecasted exchange rate of NT$32.8 to the US$, this translates into Q125 revenues of $25.58 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint of $25.4 billion</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported March 2025 revenues of NT$285.96 billion, up 10% MoM and up 46.5% YoY.
Revenue for January through March 2025 totaled NT$839.25 billion, an increase of 41.6% YoY.
At the forecasted exchange rate of NT$32.8 to the US$, this translates into Q125 revenues of $25.58 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint of $25.4 billion


Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  </li>
<li>We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  </li>
</ul>


Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  
We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

TSMC has dropped 30% since mid-January, rebounding recently but still VERY oversold. Earnings report on April 17 will act as a catalyst for the...

Nico Rosti

Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

Severe volatility has created opportunities in Asia. We identify 35 stocks on strong EPS growth, high ROE, low PEG & low leverage. Notably, TSMC,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Q125 Earnings Preview

TSMC's Q125 revenue totaled NT$839.25 billion, an increase of 41.6% YoY. All ears will be glued to their earnings call next Thursday. Buckle up &...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

​TSMC has dropped 30% since mid-January, rebounding recently but still VERY oversold. Earnings report on April 17 will act as a catalyst for the...

Nico Rosti

Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

​Severe volatility has created opportunities in Asia. We identify 35 stocks on strong EPS growth, high ROE, low PEG & low leverage. Notably, TSMC,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

​TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Q125 Earnings Preview

TSMC's Q125 revenue totaled NT$839.25 billion, an increase of 41.6% YoY. All ears will be glued to their earnings call next Thursday. Buckle up &...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

​US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

TSMC has dropped 30% since mid-January, rebounding recently but still VERY oversold. Earnings report on April 17 will act as a catalyst for the...

Severe volatility has created opportunities in Asia. We identify 35 stocks on strong EPS growth, high ROE, low PEG & low leverage. Notably, TSMC,...

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.