Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Taiwan is the latest market to join our high conviction Asian short group near the 17,200-400 zone to break below 16,900 pivot support with targets at 15,300 and 15,900. Divergence to dominate in October.Bear divergence forms when upside momentum tapers off along with buy volumes and support when a market becomes over owned amid complacency.The NDX break below trend support is a contributing factor.

Taiwan is the latest market to join our high conviction Asian short group near the 17,200-400 zone to break below 16,900 pivot support with targets at 15,300 and 15,900. Divergence to dominate in October.Bear divergence forms when upside momentum tapers off along with buy volumes and support when a market becomes over owned amid complacency.The NDX break below trend support is a contributing factor.

Taiwan Bear Target on the Back of Divergence

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)</a> is 17.5% higher from its lows a couple of months ago. The margin balance is also at a new high and has risen by nearly US$3bn over the last 2 months.At the same time, short notional has increased by US$3.7bn. Of the increase, only US$470m has come from new shorts being created while the rest is a result of higher stock prices.The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)</a> is one of the best performing Asian markets over the last year and could be susceptible to a pullback. The sharp increase in margin balance could lead to an equally sharp unwind that could lead to a repeat of the forced selling in May.With geo-political tensions and the COVID19 variants still around, plus the higher margin balances, we would look to reduce long positions in Taiwan or put appropriate hedges in place to cushion the impact of a sharp selloff in markets.

The Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX) is 17.5% higher from its lows a couple of months ago. The margin balance is also at a new high and has risen by nearly US$3bn over the last 2 months.At the same time, short notional has increased by US$3.7bn. Of the increase, only US$470m has come from new shorts being created while the rest is a result of higher stock prices.The Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX) is one of the best performing Asian markets over the last year and could be susceptible to a pullback. The sharp increase in margin balance could lead to an equally sharp unwind that could lead to a repeat of the forced selling in May.With geo-political tensions and the COVID19 variants still around, plus the higher margin balances, we would look to reduce long positions in Taiwan or put appropriate hedges in place to cushion the impact of a sharp selloff in markets.

Taiwan: TWSE & Margin Balance at New Highs

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)</a> was featured as a top short bet in Asia in recent insights followed by the Nikkei where acceleration pivots were broken. Taiwan call to short near 17,500/700 and add below 17,400 is working.The early warning sign was the RSI crack (two hard impulsive down days on May 3 and 4) and first break below 17,300 micro wedge support (used to add to short).Real bear pressure stemmed from MACD bear divergence and the expected break below the "0" acceleration point which we witnessed today.Near resistance lies at at 16,000 and 16,300 and the next support cluster at 14,400 and 14,000. Macro support is the bigger buy zone near 13,000.

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX) was featured as a top short bet in Asia in recent insights followed by the Nikkei where acceleration pivots were broken. Taiwan call to short near 17,500/700 and add below 17,400 is working.The early warning sign was the RSI crack (two hard impulsive down days on May 3 and 4) and first break below 17,300 micro wedge support (used to add to short).Real bear pressure stemmed from MACD bear divergence and the expected break below the "0" acceleration point which we witnessed today.Near resistance lies at at 16,000 and 16,300 and the next support cluster at 14,400 and 14,000. Macro support is the bigger buy zone near 13,000.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26056" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1">Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)</a> has been one of the best relative perform markets in Asia along with the Nikkei and a hiding place that will come under pressure.Markets that have held up are now vulnerable to redemption and late cycle selling (India, Australia and Taiwan with Japan the tail).Taiwan technical triggers are breaking down, suggesting the index will break triangulation to the downside, resulting in high momentum fallout . TSMC is fading from key resistance.Taiwan buckling would part of the capitulation cycle that gets Asia closer to a cycle low in late October/November.Taiwan's cycle has a history of going linear once a key cycle turn take place.

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX) has been one of the best relative perform markets in Asia along with the Nikkei and a hiding place that will come under pressure.Markets that have held up are now vulnerable to redemption and late cycle selling (India, Australia and Taiwan with Japan the tail).Taiwan technical triggers are breaking down, suggesting the index will break triangulation to the downside, resulting in high momentum fallout . TSMC is fading from key resistance.Taiwan buckling would part of the capitulation cycle that gets Asia closer to a cycle low in late October/November.Taiwan's cycle has a history of going linear once a key cycle turn take place.

Taiwan

The TWSE, or TAIEX, Index is capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The index has a base value of 100 based on its 1966 level. The index is also known as the TSEC Index.

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Taiwan Bear Target on the Back of Divergence

Taiwan is the latest market to join our high conviction Asian short group near the 17,200-400 zone to break below 16,900 pivot support with targets...

Thomas Schroeder

Taiwan: TWSE & Margin Balance at New Highs

The TWSE and margin balances are both at a new high. With geo-political concerns and COVID-19 still major factors, we would look to lower long...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Trapdoor - Where Next?

TWSE INDEX was featured as a top short bet in Asia in recent insights followed by the Nikkei where acceleration pivots were broken. Taiwan call to...

Thomas Schroeder

Taiwan the Next Shoe to Drop in Asia

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX) has been one of the best relative perform markets in Asia along with the Nikkei and a hiding...

Thomas Schroeder