Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Over the last six months, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sosei-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:770:1" rel="noopener">Sosei Group (4565 JP)</a> gained 37%, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a> plunged 21%. During the same time, benchmark indices Nikkei 225 and Topix gained 1.8%.</li>
<li>Sosei is expected to continue its outperformance driven by clinical progress of the existing collaboration programs. Sosei’s strong track record of drug discovery enhances conviction on its future growth potential.</li>
<li>Takara has been on an accelerated growth path since FY21, thanks to COVID-19 testing revenue. The company will be negatively impacted by the declining demand for the COVID-19 tests.</li>
</ul>


Over the last six months, Sosei Group (4565 JP) gained 37%, while Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) plunged 21%. During the same time, benchmark indices Nikkei 225 and Topix gained 1.8%.
Sosei is expected to continue its outperformance driven by clinical progress of the existing collaboration programs. Sosei’s strong track record of drug discovery enhances conviction on its future growth potential.
Takara has been on an accelerated growth path since FY21, thanks to COVID-19 testing revenue. The company will be negatively impacted by the declining demand for the COVID-19 tests.


Japan Healthcare: Pair Trade Ideas- Long Sosei Group (4565 JP), Short Takara Bio (4974 JP)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.</li>
<li>This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.</li>
<li>This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.</li>
</ul>


As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.
This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.
This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.


2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a> reported 55% y/y growth in revenue during the first nine months of FY22, mainly driven by 129% y/y surge in COVID-19 PCR test reagent revenue.</li>
<li><span lang="EN-US">Although Takara Bio is likely to beat its FY22 guidance, uncertainty is prevailing for revenue earning potential beyond FY22, when the COVID-19 test demand will fade away.   </span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-US">We would stay away from this idea for now and wait on the sideline for a clarity of growth potential and recovery in the base business in FY23 and beyond. </span></li>
</ul>



Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP) reported 55% y/y growth in revenue during the first nine months of FY22, mainly driven by 129% y/y surge in COVID-19 PCR test reagent revenue.
Although Takara Bio is likely to beat its FY22 guidance, uncertainty is prevailing for revenue earning potential beyond FY22, when the COVID-19 test demand will fade away.   
We would stay away from this idea for now and wait on the sideline for a clarity of growth potential and recovery in the base business in FY23 and beyond. 


Takara Bio (4974 JP): FY23 Looks Uncertain as COVID-19 PCR Testing Number Decline Is Inevitable

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-March 2022.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-March 2022.


JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leaderboard End-Mar 2022

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/phc-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34198:1" rel="noopener">PHC Holdings (6523 JP)</a> is a diversified healthcare company, which serves ~$25 billion broader end-market, of which global glucose monitoring is the largest end-market.</li>
<li>The company’s diabetes management business is the highest margin earning segment and is poised to grow through expanding presence in continuous glucose monitoring system.</li>
<li>PHC can be an early investment idea as a passive play on the fastest growing segment of the global diabetes management segment ahead of its global launch of next-generation CGM.</li>
</ul>



PHC Holdings (6523 JP) is a diversified healthcare company, which serves ~$25 billion broader end-market, of which global glucose monitoring is the largest end-market.
The company’s diabetes management business is the highest margin earning segment and is poised to grow through expanding presence in continuous glucose monitoring system.
PHC can be an early investment idea as a passive play on the fastest growing segment of the global diabetes management segment ahead of its global launch of next-generation CGM.


PHC Holdings (6523 JP): Eyeing a Bigger Pie of Global Diabetes Management Solution

Japan

TAKARA BIO INC. is a biopharmaceutical company.  The Company researches and develops reagents for genome engineering and analysis, technology used for gene therapy, and natural health food products using mushrooms and seaweed body and extracts.

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Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)

Japan Healthcare: Pair Trade Ideas- Long Sosei Group (4565 JP), Short Takara Bio (4974 JP)

Over the last six months, Sosei shares gained 37%, while Takara Bio shares plunged 21%. No immediate reversal is expected. The performance gap...

Tina Banerjee

2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

JPX Nikkei 400 rebalance is going the right way in the 6 trading days so far, and it wasn't done on Day1 (which was lacklustre). It may be under...

Travis Lundy

Takara Bio (4974 JP): FY23 Looks Uncertain as COVID-19 PCR Testing Number Decline Is Inevitable

With COVID-19 test demand declining and base business recovery is not on full swing, Takara Bio’s growth potential beyond FY22 seems to be uncertain.

Tina Banerjee

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leaderboard End-Mar 2022

A look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-March 2022.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

PHC Holdings (6523 JP): Eyeing a Bigger Pie of Global Diabetes Management Solution

Ahead of the global launch on Senseonics’ next-generation implantable CGM in Q2 2022, we are bullish on the long-term growth prospect of PHC.

Tina Banerjee

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