Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.</li>
<li>US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.</li>
<li>Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.
US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.
Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.


Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> has announced 9MFY26 result, with revenue declining 3% YoY to ¥3,411B, dragged by Vyvanse. Growth and launch products revenue grew 7%, with improving QoQ growth rate.</li>
<li>The company raised its full-year forecasts based on cost discipline and FX tailwind, while its revenue management guidance has been updated primarily due to the impact of Vyvanse generics.</li>
<li>Takeda has multiple late-stage programs with multibillion-dollar peak revenue potential. The company is poised to launch three drugs in the next 18 months, setting it on a new growth trajectory.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) has announced 9MFY26 result, with revenue declining 3% YoY to ¥3,411B, dragged by Vyvanse. Growth and launch products revenue grew 7%, with improving QoQ growth rate.
The company raised its full-year forecasts based on cost discipline and FX tailwind, while its revenue management guidance has been updated primarily due to the impact of Vyvanse generics.
Takeda has multiple late-stage programs with multibillion-dollar peak revenue potential. The company is poised to launch three drugs in the next 18 months, setting it on a new growth trajectory.


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Decent 9MFY26 Show; Guidance Revision Amid New Leg of Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported better-than-expected performance in Q3FY25, with 3% revenue growth to ¥1,144B, driven by continued strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products. All key parameters beat estimates.</li>
<li>Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, as well as revised foreign exchange assumptions. Takeda has also announced ¥100B buyback.</li>
<li>Continued strong performance of its Growth and Launch product portfolio, ripe late-stage pipeline, and expected margin improvement from FY26 envisage long-term growth prospect of the company.  </li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported better-than-expected performance in Q3FY25, with 3% revenue growth to ¥1,144B, driven by continued strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products. All key parameters beat estimates.
Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, as well as revised foreign exchange assumptions. Takeda has also announced ¥100B buyback.
Continued strong performance of its Growth and Launch product portfolio, ripe late-stage pipeline, and expected margin improvement from FY26 envisage long-term growth prospect of the company.  


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Strong Q3 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; ¥100B Buyback Announced

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Ascentage Pharma / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ascentage has filed with the SEC to raise up to US$100 million in a US IPO. We think its future market value is expected to surpass that of Hutchmed.</li>
<li>The outlook of olverembatinib is clear. Takeda can give more possibilities to olverembatinib. 2025 Sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach RMB500 million.Market value contribution from olverembatinib is US$1-1.5 billion. </li>
<li>Investors have higher expectations on APG-2575 to be out-licensed to MNCs. We think the peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass that of olverembatinib in overseas markets. </li>
</ul>


Ascentage has filed with the SEC to raise up to US$100 million in a US IPO. We think its future market value is expected to surpass that of Hutchmed.
The outlook of olverembatinib is clear. Takeda can give more possibilities to olverembatinib. 2025 Sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach RMB500 million.Market value contribution from olverembatinib is US$1-1.5 billion. 
Investors have higher expectations on APG-2575 to be out-licensed to MNCs. We think the peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass that of olverembatinib in overseas markets. 


Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma - The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Takeda Pharmaceutical   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Production problems of Vyvanse generics seem to be largely resolved with nine of the ten suppliers back in stock.</li>
<li>Safety concerns with Takeda’s approved psoriasis competitor does raise further concerns as they are both TYK-2 inhibitors.</li>
<li>The company’s $900 m big restructure and cited areas for margin improvement are not “convincing” and lack detail.   </li>
</ul>


Production problems of Vyvanse generics seem to be largely resolved with nine of the ten suppliers back in stock.
Safety concerns with Takeda’s approved psoriasis competitor does raise further concerns as they are both TYK-2 inhibitors.
The company’s $900 m big restructure and cited areas for margin improvement are not “convincing” and lack detail.   


Additional Points Add to Our Recent Bearish View on Takeda.

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is engaged in research and development, manufacturing, sales and marketing, and import and export of pharmaceutical drugs. The Company focuses on the core therapeutic areas of oncology, gastrointestinal, and central nervous system disease.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK US)

Silver Measured Move to 35.50

Gold looks a bit fatigued and silver likely to play catch up. Greenback could present headwinds for equities. Japan reverses big gains in 2024.

Douglas Busch

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Decent 9MFY26 Show; Guidance Revision Amid New Leg of Growth

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports 9MFY26 result with revenue declining 3%. The company raised FY26 forecasts on cost discipline and FX tailwind....

Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Strong Q3 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; ¥100B Buyback Announced

Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, and revised Fx...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma - The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

Ascentage aims to raise $100 million in US IPO, with potential valuation surpassing Hutchmed. Olverembatinib's outlook is certain. Catalyst is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Additional Points Add to Our Recent Bearish View on Takeda.

Additional points add to our recent bearish view on Takeda. We are particularly concerned about the psoriasis acquisition and restructuring.

daaimon

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Silver Measured Move to 35.50

Gold looks a bit fatigued and silver likely to play catch up. Greenback could present headwinds for equities. Japan reverses big gains in 2024.

Douglas Busch

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Decent 9MFY26 Show; Guidance Revision Amid New Leg of Growth

​Takeda Pharmaceutical reports 9MFY26 result with revenue declining 3%. The company raised FY26 forecasts on cost discipline and FX tailwind....

Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Strong Q3 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; ¥100B Buyback Announced

​Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, and revised Fx...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma - The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

​Ascentage aims to raise $100 million in US IPO, with potential valuation surpassing Hutchmed. Olverembatinib's outlook is certain. Catalyst is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Additional Points Add to Our Recent Bearish View on Takeda.

Additional points add to our recent bearish view on Takeda. We are particularly concerned about the psoriasis acquisition and restructuring.

daaimon

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports 9MFY26 result with revenue declining 3%. The company raised FY26 forecasts on cost discipline and FX tailwind....

Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, and revised Fx...

Ascentage aims to raise $100 million in US IPO, with potential valuation surpassing Hutchmed. Olverembatinib's outlook is certain. Catalyst is...