Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported better-than-expected performance in Q3FY25, with 3% revenue growth to ¥1,144B, driven by continued strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products. All key parameters beat estimates.</li>
<li>Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, as well as revised foreign exchange assumptions. Takeda has also announced ¥100B buyback.</li>
<li>Continued strong performance of its Growth and Launch product portfolio, ripe late-stage pipeline, and expected margin improvement from FY26 envisage long-term growth prospect of the company.  </li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported better-than-expected performance in Q3FY25, with 3% revenue growth to ¥1,144B, driven by continued strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products. All key parameters beat estimates.
Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, as well as revised foreign exchange assumptions. Takeda has also announced ¥100B buyback.
Continued strong performance of its Growth and Launch product portfolio, ripe late-stage pipeline, and expected margin improvement from FY26 envisage long-term growth prospect of the company.  


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Strong Q3 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; ¥100B Buyback Announced

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ascentage has filed with the SEC to raise up to US$100 million in a US IPO. We think its future market value is expected to surpass that of Hutchmed.</li>
<li>The outlook of olverembatinib is clear. Takeda can give more possibilities to olverembatinib. 2025 Sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach RMB500 million.Market value contribution from olverembatinib is US$1-1.5 billion. </li>
<li>Investors have higher expectations on APG-2575 to be out-licensed to MNCs. We think the peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass that of olverembatinib in overseas markets. </li>
</ul>


Ascentage has filed with the SEC to raise up to US$100 million in a US IPO. We think its future market value is expected to surpass that of Hutchmed.
The outlook of olverembatinib is clear. Takeda can give more possibilities to olverembatinib. 2025 Sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach RMB500 million.Market value contribution from olverembatinib is US$1-1.5 billion. 
Investors have higher expectations on APG-2575 to be out-licensed to MNCs. We think the peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass that of olverembatinib in overseas markets. 


Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma - The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. </li>
<li>Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). </li>
<li>Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. </li>
</ul>


With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. 
Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun'24). 
Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. 


Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Takeda Pharmaceutical   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Production problems of Vyvanse generics seem to be largely resolved with nine of the ten suppliers back in stock.</li>
<li>Safety concerns with Takeda’s approved psoriasis competitor does raise further concerns as they are both TYK-2 inhibitors.</li>
<li>The company’s $900 m big restructure and cited areas for margin improvement are not “convincing” and lack detail.   </li>
</ul>


Production problems of Vyvanse generics seem to be largely resolved with nine of the ten suppliers back in stock.
Safety concerns with Takeda’s approved psoriasis competitor does raise further concerns as they are both TYK-2 inhibitors.
The company’s $900 m big restructure and cited areas for margin improvement are not “convincing” and lack detail.   


Additional Points Add to Our Recent Bearish View on Takeda.

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> Postpones <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novelis-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39969:1" rel="noopener">Novelis Corporation (0620365D US)</a> IPO Amid Market Considerations</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a>'s Tata Motors Finance to Merge with Tata Capital</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-stock-exchange" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23751:1" rel="noopener">National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN)</a> Sets World Record for Highest Number of Transactions in a Single Day</li>
</ul>



Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) Postpones Novelis Corporation (0620365D US) IPO Amid Market Considerations

Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)'s Tata Motors Finance to Merge with Tata Capital

National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) Sets World Record for Highest Number of Transactions in a Single Day


#8 India Insight: Novelis IPO Postponed, TMFL Merger, Angle One Client Growth, NSE World Record

Japan

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is engaged in research and development, manufacturing, sales and marketing, and import and export of pharmaceutical drugs. The Company focuses on the core therapeutic areas of oncology, gastrointestinal, and central nervous system disease.

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK US)

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Strong Q3 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; ¥100B Buyback Announced

Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, and revised Fx...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma - The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

Ascentage aims to raise $100 million in US IPO, with potential valuation surpassing Hutchmed. Olverembatinib's outlook is certain. Catalyst is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Additional Points Add to Our Recent Bearish View on Takeda.

Additional points add to our recent bearish view on Takeda. We are particularly concerned about the psoriasis acquisition and restructuring.

daaimon

#8 India Insight: Novelis IPO Postponed, TMFL Merger, Angle One Client Growth, NSE World Record

Hindalco Industries postpones Novelis Corporation IPO, Tata Motors Finance to merge with Tata Capital, NSE sets world record for transactions in a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Strong Q3 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; ¥100B Buyback Announced

​Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, and revised Fx...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma - The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

​Ascentage aims to raise $100 million in US IPO, with potential valuation surpassing Hutchmed. Olverembatinib's outlook is certain. Catalyst is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

​Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Additional Points Add to Our Recent Bearish View on Takeda.

Additional points add to our recent bearish view on Takeda. We are particularly concerned about the psoriasis acquisition and restructuring.

daaimon

#8 India Insight: Novelis IPO Postponed, TMFL Merger, Angle One Client Growth, NSE World Record

​Hindalco Industries postpones Novelis Corporation IPO, Tata Motors Finance to merge with Tata Capital, NSE sets world record for transactions in a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, and revised Fx...

Ascentage aims to raise $100 million in US IPO, with potential valuation surpassing Hutchmed. Olverembatinib's outlook is certain. Catalyst is...

Japanese interest rates are set to normalize amid robust nominal GDP. But a rebounding JPY (at ¥125/US$ by end'24) precludes further BoJ hikes,...

Hindalco Industries postpones Novelis Corporation IPO, Tata Motors Finance to merge with Tata Capital, NSE sets world record for transactions in a...