Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>'s transition from a pure explorer to an upstream gas producer hasn't exactly gone to plan. </li>
<li>Strike started pumping &amp; selling gas from its Perth-basin Walyering project in September 2023; and green lit a gas-fired peaking power plant in November 2024.</li>
<li>The share price is now at a six-year low. Yesterday, Strike announced CEO, non-executive chair, and NED changes/retirements; and following an independent review, a move towards a smaller board.</li>
</ul>



Strike Energy (STX AU)'s transition from a pure explorer to an upstream gas producer hasn't exactly gone to plan. 
Strike started pumping &amp; selling gas from its Perth-basin Walyering project in September 2023; and green lit a gas-fired peaking power plant in November 2024.
The share price is now at a six-year low. Yesterday, Strike announced CEO, non-executive chair, and NED changes/retirements; and following an independent review, a move towards a smaller board.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Shareholders have approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a>'s acquisition by Paine Schwartz Partners and the stock is expected to stop trading after the close on 8 February.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> will be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 8 February.</li>
<li>There will be positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> but we do not expect it to be excessively large and there could be some outperformance over the next week.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders have approved Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)'s acquisition by Paine Schwartz Partners and the stock is expected to stop trading after the close on 8 February.

Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) will be replaced by Strike Energy (STX AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 8 February.
There will be positioning in Strike Energy (STX AU) but we do not expect it to be excessively large and there could be some outperformance over the next week.


S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Strike Energy (STX) To Replace Costa Group (CGC)

<ul>
<li>The Scheme Meeting for PSP's acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> will be held on 30 January and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group</a> could stop trading after the close on 8 February.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siteminder-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34688:1" rel="noopener">SiteMinder (SDR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/audinate-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26757:1" rel="noopener">Audinate (AD8 AU)</a> are potential inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at an ad hoc rebalance.</li>
<li>For the stocks that are not added at the ad hoc rebalance, there is a very high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> inclusion at the March rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The Scheme Meeting for PSP's acquisition of Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) will be held on 30 January and Costa Group could stop trading after the close on 8 February.

Strike Energy (STX AU), SiteMinder (SDR AU) and Audinate (AD8 AU) are potential inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at an ad hoc rebalance.
For the stocks that are not added at the ad hoc rebalance, there is a very high probability of S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) inclusion at the March rebalance.


Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.</li>
<li>There are some doubts over the fate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a>'s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023. </li>
<li>Don't punt <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.</li>
</ul>



NTT (9432 JP) will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.
There are some doubts over the fate of Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)'s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023. 
Don't punt Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

<ul>
<li>O&amp;G junior <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talon-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15556:1" rel="noopener">Talon Energy (TPD AU)</a> announced it had received a non-binding Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>. 
</li>
<li>The all-scrip bid - by way of a Scheme - entailed an implied A$0.20/share in Strike shares plus Talon shareholders retaining their holding in Talon’s Mongolia gas project.</li>
<li>After Talon said it intended to undertake a process of evaluation of the Proposal before offering due diligence, Strike promptly withdrew its bid.</li>
</ul>


O&amp;G junior Talon Energy (TPD AU) announced it had received a non-binding Offer from Strike Energy (STX AU). 

The all-scrip bid - by way of a Scheme - entailed an implied A$0.20/share in Strike shares plus Talon shareholders retaining their holding in Talon’s Mongolia gas project.
After Talon said it intended to undertake a process of evaluation of the Proposal before offering due diligence, Strike promptly withdrew its bid.


Australia

Talon Energy Limited is an exploration company. The Company acquires, explores, and develops properties for petroleum resources. Talon Energy serves customers in the United States.

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Talon Energy (TPD AU)

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S&P/ASX 200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Strike Energy (STX) To Replace Costa Group (CGC)

Strike Energy will replace Costa Group in the ASX200 at the close on 8 Feb. The inclusion was expected and there is positioning in the stock. But...

Brian Freitas

Costa Group (CGC AU): Potential ASX200 Replacements

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Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Strike Energy Yanks Its NBIO For Talon

Strike has walked, and Talon is trading 10% below the scrip terms, ex-Mongolia. IF you believe Talon can convert its significant resources to...

David Blennerhassett

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