Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 25 May, when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> enter into a SPA with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>'s CEO, with a follow-on Tender Offer, the whole construct looked pretty clean.</li>
<li>Then in August <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insulet-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5252:1" rel="noopener">Insulet Corp (PODD US)</a> launched its lawsuit, which in hindsight, should have been expected. Then earlier this month, news surfaced concerning a stock-backed loan to the CEO.</li>
<li>Now the CEO is selling, presumably to repay his collateralized loan. Shares are down 38% since the resumption of trading, and are now at a whopping 122% spread to terms. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 25 May, when Medtronic Plc (MDT US) enter into a SPA with EOFlow (294090 KS)'s CEO, with a follow-on Tender Offer, the whole construct looked pretty clean.
Then in August Insulet Corp (PODD US) launched its lawsuit, which in hindsight, should have been expected. Then earlier this month, news surfaced concerning a stock-backed loan to the CEO.
Now the CEO is selling, presumably to repay his collateralized loan. Shares are down 38% since the resumption of trading, and are now at a whopping 122% spread to terms. 


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Beta Bionics Inc. has successfully completed its upsized US IPO in January and sold 13.8M shares at $17.00 per share, above the marketed price range.</li>
<li>Maker of the first FDA-cleared insulin delivery device reported better than expected 3Q’25 results, including revenue of $27.3M and an adjusted EBITDA loss of ~$12M.</li>
<li>While there is long term potential from interesting pipeline, I believe that the valuation is full, and I would wait a share pull-back before becoming more positive on the stock.</li>
</ul>


Beta Bionics Inc. has successfully completed its upsized US IPO in January and sold 13.8M shares at $17.00 per share, above the marketed price range.
Maker of the first FDA-cleared insulin delivery device reported better than expected 3Q’25 results, including revenue of $27.3M and an adjusted EBITDA loss of ~$12M.
While there is long term potential from interesting pipeline, I believe that the valuation is full, and I would wait a share pull-back before becoming more positive on the stock.


Beta Bionics Inc. (BBNX.US): Solid 3Q’25 Results But Valuation Full at Current Levels

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Beta Bionics, a high-growth medtech company and developer of an integrated bionics pancreas system called iLet, filed for an IPO in the United States.</li>
<li>Maker of insulin delivery device cleared by the FDA offers 7.5M shares at a price range between $14.00 and $16.00 per share.</li>
<li>With the most recent S-1/A, Beta Bionics plans to raise ~$122M at the high end of range at $16.00 per share, including a concurrent private placement.</li>
</ul>


Beta Bionics, a high-growth medtech company and developer of an integrated bionics pancreas system called iLet, filed for an IPO in the United States.
Maker of insulin delivery device cleared by the FDA offers 7.5M shares at a price range between $14.00 and $16.00 per share.
With the most recent S-1/A, Beta Bionics plans to raise ~$122M at the high end of range at $16.00 per share, including a concurrent private placement.


Beta Bionics IPO: Will The Innovative MedTech Company Repeat The Success of Livongo Health?

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

<ul>
<li>Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.</li>
<li>The accretion trade is going to plan as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> sells <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>; and Prosus and Tencent both back their own shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>'s board capacity to sabotage calling an SGM has finally run out of puff.</li>
</ul>


Now the time decay to expected approvals and tender offer start for JSR Corp (4185 JP) are getting steep. Time to Fight The FUD.
The accretion trade is going to plan as Prosus NV (PRX NA) sells Tencent (700 HK); and Prosus and Tencent both back their own shares.

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)'s board capacity to sabotage calling an SGM has finally run out of puff.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Prosus/Tencent, Hollysys, Tata Consultancy, Geely, EOFlow

United States

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. produces medical devices. The Company designs, develops, and commercializes products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. Tandem Diabetes Care offers its products to the medical industries in the United States.

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Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US)

EOFlow (Further) Tests Investor Patience

The Appellant Brief Is out. EOFlow flags. inter alia, the statute of limitations; whether Insulet faces a significant risk of irreparable harm;...

David Blennerhassett

Beta Bionics Inc. (BBNX.US): Solid 3Q’25 Results But Valuation Full at Current Levels

Beta Bionics stock outperformed its peers in the U.S. in 2025. In my insight, I revised my estimates and set a new 12-month TP for Beta Bionics...

Andrei Zakharov

Beta Bionics IPO: Will The Innovative MedTech Company Repeat The Success of Livongo Health?

Beta Bionics, a developer of bionic pancreas system called iLet, is expected to IPO next week. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation and...

Andrei Zakharov

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

For the month of November, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$13bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Prosus/Tencent, Hollysys, Tata Consultancy, Geely, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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