Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US</li>
<li>Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment</li>
<li>The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com</li>
</ul>


Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
Temu won't sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, &amp; will rely on local fulfillment
The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com


In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

<ul>
<li>For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative</li>
<li>We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data -- not surprising</li>
<li>New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust</li>
</ul>


For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative
We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data -- not surprising
New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum remains very weak, and spot rates are already below 2024 lows</li>
<li>Multiple deep-sea carriers have recently guided to a collapse in core earnings in 2025</li>
<li>USTR / MARAD proposed rule changes could add to US tariff chaos &amp; raise carriers' costs</li>
</ul>


Price momentum remains very weak, and spot rates are already below 2024 lows
Multiple deep-sea carriers have recently guided to a collapse in core earnings in 2025
USTR / MARAD proposed rule changes could add to US tariff chaos &amp; raise carriers' costs


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Down | Chorus of Weak Guidance | USTR-MARAD (March 2025)

<ul>
<li>We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025</li>
<li>Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was <em>negative</em> 0.8%</li>
<li>We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID</li>
</ul>


We expect container shipping profits to begin to revert to historical levels in 2025
Between 2009 and 2019, Evergreen Marine's mean OpInc margin was negative 0.8%
We believe path to mean industry returns &amp; near-term risks both misunderstood; AVOID


Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>In Target Corporation’s third-quarter earnings, Target witnessed a healthy 2.4% traffic growth, translating to over 10 million additional transactions compared to last year.</li><li>This is indicative of customer engagement and loyalty, supported by the company's attractive offerings combining essential services and promotional activities.</li><li>The digital sector also emerged as a strong contender, showcasing an impressive growth of nearly 11%.</li></ul>

In Target Corporation’s third-quarter earnings, Target witnessed a healthy 2.4% traffic growth, translating to over 10 million additional transactions compared to last year.This is indicative of customer engagement and loyalty, supported by the company's attractive offerings combining essential services and promotional activities.The digital sector also emerged as a strong contender, showcasing an impressive growth of nearly 11%.

How Target Corporation's Digital Power Play is Transforming Shopping & Boosting Stock Potential! - Major Drivers

United States

Target Corporation operates general merchandise discount stores. The Company focuses on merchandising operations which includes general merchandise and food discount stores and a fully integrated online business. Target also offers credit to qualified applicants through its branded proprietary credit cards.

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Target Corp (TGT US)

In Response to Tariff & "De Minimis" Changes, Temu Alters US Business Model, Morphing Into...Amazon?

In the US, Pinduoduo's Temu platform has made sudden, dramatic changes to its business model. The changes could bring Temu into direct competition...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)

In March we believe average deep-sea container rates fell Y/Y. Risks facing the carriers -- higher tariffs, new levies on Chinese ships in the US,...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Down | Chorus of Weak Guidance | USTR-MARAD (March 2025)

Container rates continue to fall, and major carriers are guiding to a collapse in core margins in FY25. Proposed US rules could potentially make...

Tracking Traffic

Container Shipping: Mean Reversion in 2025, Yes, but to WHICH Mean?

If container carrier profitability begins to revert to historical mean levels in 2025, it suggests a dramatic decline in financial performance in...

Tracking Traffic

How Target Corporation's Digital Power Play is Transforming Shopping & Boosting Stock Potential! - Major Drivers

In Target Corporation’s third-quarter earnings, Target witnessed a healthy 2.4% traffic growth, translating to over 10 million additional...

Baptista Research

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