IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$236 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:130521" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case</a></strong></em>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$236 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share.
We previously discussed the IPO in Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550. We would participate in the IPO.


Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Amrutha Raj

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the year. Cyber Monday comes second. This year BFCM set a record of USD 38 billion across 200+ million shoppers.</li>
<li>Buy Now, Pay Later drove USD 940m in online spending on Cyber Monday, up a staggering 42.5% YoY. Online Sales via smartphone set a fresh record of 59%.  </li>
<li>In a year, where good news for the main street is unwelcome news for the wall street, record shattering holiday shopping numbers comes amid a buoyant stock market.</li>
</ul>


Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the year. Cyber Monday comes second. This year BFCM set a record of USD 38 billion across 200+ million shoppers.
Buy Now, Pay Later drove USD 940m in online spending on Cyber Monday, up a staggering 42.5% YoY. Online Sales via smartphone set a fresh record of 59%.  
In a year, where good news for the main street is unwelcome news for the wall street, record shattering holiday shopping numbers comes amid a buoyant stock market.


US Consumers Remain Resilient While Setting Record Sales During Black Friday and Cyber Monday

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>US users of the popular SHEIN and Temu shopping apps tend to be relatively young</li>
<li>Compared to older Americans, younger Americans (18-34) tend to have less political clout</li>
<li>What does this mean for SHEIN and Temu, and how will they respond to political challenges?</li>
</ul>


US users of the popular SHEIN and Temu shopping apps tend to be relatively young
Compared to older Americans, younger Americans (18-34) tend to have less political clout
What does this mean for SHEIN and Temu, and how will they respond to political challenges?


As a Group, Typical SHEIN & Temu Users in the US Lack Political Clout; Why It Matters

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sml-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36102:1" rel="noopener">SML Group (SMLGZ HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>SML Group (SMLG) is a vertically integrated digital identification solutions provider. It primarily engages in developing, manufacturing and selling label and tag products with radio frequency identification (RFID).</li>
<li>SMLG’s revenue growth rebounded post-COVID on the back of improved consumer sentiment. However, the firm’s profitability growth has been slowing down yet it has undertaken additional debt to payout dividends.</li>
</ul>



SML Group (SMLGZ HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
SML Group (SMLG) is a vertically integrated digital identification solutions provider. It primarily engages in developing, manufacturing and selling label and tag products with radio frequency identification (RFID).
SMLG’s revenue growth rebounded post-COVID on the back of improved consumer sentiment. However, the firm’s profitability growth has been slowing down yet it has undertaken additional debt to payout dividends.


SML Group Pre-IPO - Guided Decline in Profitability but Spike in Dividend Payout

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. </li>
<li>Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.</li>
<li>Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.</li>
</ul>


Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. 
Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.
Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.


Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

United States

Target Corporation operates general merchandise discount stores. The Company focuses on merchandising operations which includes general merchandise and food discount stores and a fully integrated online business. Target also offers credit to qualified applicants through its branded proprietary credit cards.

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Target Corp (TGT US)

Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts

Trial has upsized its IPO from US$236m to US$260m by launching its IPO at JPY1,600-1,700 per share vs. the reference price of JPY1,550. The offer...

Arun George

US Consumers Remain Resilient While Setting Record Sales During Black Friday and Cyber Monday

The CFA Institute published an insightful analysis of US Consumers, The Paper mentions: slower income growth, rising inequality, and demographic...

Mint Finance

As a Group, Typical SHEIN & Temu Users in the US Lack Political Clout; Why It Matters

In this insight we explain why SHEIN's and Temu's youthful customer base in the US is a political liability, despite its attractive growth potential.

Tracking Traffic

SML Group Pre-IPO - Guided Decline in Profitability but Spike in Dividend Payout

SML Group (SMLGZ HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The firm’s profitability growth has been slowing down yet it...

Ethan Aw

Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

Maersk's Q1 result showed a steep Y/Y decline in earnings due to lower rates. But RoE is fine, and the company maintained guidance, which supports...

Tracking Traffic

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