Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>RBI's MPC cut its policy repo rate by 50bp (to 5.5%, implying cuts totalling 100bp in the past half year), and also a phased 100bp cut in CRR by Dec'25. </li>
<li>Despite CPI inflation moderating below 3.2%YoY in Apr'25, the RBI has only slightly lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7% (from 4%), and hence returned to a neutral stance. </li>
<li>Given an above-normal monsoon, already strong Rabi crop, and low crude oil prices, we expect CPI inflation to average less than 3%YoY in Jun-Dec'25, allowing 75bp of further rate cuts. </li>
</ul>


RBI's MPC cut its policy repo rate by 50bp (to 5.5%, implying cuts totalling 100bp in the past half year), and also a phased 100bp cut in CRR by Dec'25. 
Despite CPI inflation moderating below 3.2%YoY in Apr'25, the RBI has only slightly lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7% (from 4%), and hence returned to a neutral stance. 
Given an above-normal monsoon, already strong Rabi crop, and low crude oil prices, we expect CPI inflation to average less than 3%YoY in Jun-Dec'25, allowing 75bp of further rate cuts. 


India: 50bp Rate Cut, 100bp of CRR Cuts Pave the Way for Faster RGDP Growth

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.</li>
<li>Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.</li>
<li>Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.</li>
</ul>


The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.


EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (2498 HK)</a> raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.</li>
<li>The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

<ul>
<li>In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a>. Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in Mar 2022.</li>
<li>CPPIB will be released from its placement linked lockup early next month.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and past deals performance.</li>
</ul>


In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in Mar 2022.
CPPIB will be released from its placement linked lockup early next month.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and past deals performance.


Kotak Mahindra Bank - US$1.2 Billion Lockup Release

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tata Motors PV reported record quarterly wholesales of 1.71 lakh units in Q3 FY26(+22% YoY). Q3FY26 domestic sales reached 6.31 lakh units, overtaking Hyundai for the first time.</li>
<li>JLR’s cyber disruption led to a sharp decline in Q3 (revenue -39% YoY, EBIT -6.8%), masking strong recovery in India PV, driven by EVs, CNG, and SUVs gaining traction together.</li>
<li>With EBITDA margins at ~7% and EVs turning EBITDA-positive early, the key question is whether volume growth can translate into sustainable profitability before competition intensifies by FY27.</li>
</ul>


Tata Motors PV reported record quarterly wholesales of 1.71 lakh units in Q3 FY26(+22% YoY). Q3FY26 domestic sales reached 6.31 lakh units, overtaking Hyundai for the first time.
JLR’s cyber disruption led to a sharp decline in Q3 (revenue -39% YoY, EBIT -6.8%), masking strong recovery in India PV, driven by EVs, CNG, and SUVs gaining traction together.
With EBITDA margins at ~7% and EVs turning EBITDA-positive early, the key question is whether volume growth can translate into sustainable profitability before competition intensifies by FY27.


Tata Motors PV: The Revival Is Real, but Margins Are Waiting Their Turn

India

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited is an Indian multinational automobile manufacturer that designs, manufactures, and sells a diverse portfolio of passenger cars and utility vehicles, including electric variants. The company is a key player in India's electric vehicle market and also owns the British car manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover. It is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in 1945 as Tata Motors Limited, with the passenger vehicles business later carved out as a dedicated subsidiary.

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Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV IN)

India: 50bp Rate Cut, 100bp of CRR Cuts Pave the Way for Faster RGDP Growth

We forecast 8.5% real GDP growth in FY26, with another 75bp of rate cuts by Dec'25 (after 100bp cuts in Feb-Jun'25) boosting fixed investment,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

Kotak Mahindra Bank - US$1.2 Billion Lockup Release

In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in...

Sumeet Singh

Tata Motors PV: The Revival Is Real, but Margins Are Waiting Their Turn

Tata Motors PV sees record sales in Q3 FY26, overtaking Hyundai domestically, but JLR's cyber disruption leads to sharp decline in revenue.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: 50bp Rate Cut, 100bp of CRR Cuts Pave the Way for Faster RGDP Growth

We forecast 8.5% real GDP growth in FY26, with another 75bp of rate cuts by Dec'25 (after 100bp cuts in Feb-Jun'25) boosting fixed investment,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

​Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

Kotak Mahindra Bank - US$1.2 Billion Lockup Release

In Jun 2023, CPPIB raised around US$750m via selling a 1.6% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). Prior to that it had sold a similar amount in...

Sumeet Singh

Tata Motors PV: The Revival Is Real, but Margins Are Waiting Their Turn

​Tata Motors PV sees record sales in Q3 FY26, overtaking Hyundai domestically, but JLR's cyber disruption leads to sharp decline in revenue.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Tata Motors PV sees record sales in Q3 FY26, overtaking Hyundai domestically, but JLR's cyber disruption leads to sharp decline in revenue.