Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With CPI inflation at 2.1%YoY in Jun'25, the real policy rate is +3.4% -- higher than in Jan'25 (+2.19%) before the 100bp of repo rate cuts. </li>
<li>Despite a shift to a larger rate cut (accompanied by reductions in CRR), the RBI is still a bit behind the curve. We expect another 100bp of cuts by Feb'26. </li>
<li>Vegetable deflation will persist through H2CY25, so we expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.9% in FY26, obliging more rate cuts, enabling real GDP growth of 8.5%+ in FY26. </li>
</ul>


With CPI inflation at 2.1%YoY in Jun'25, the real policy rate is +3.4% -- higher than in Jan'25 (+2.19%) before the 100bp of repo rate cuts. 
Despite a shift to a larger rate cut (accompanied by reductions in CRR), the RBI is still a bit behind the curve. We expect another 100bp of cuts by Feb'26. 
Vegetable deflation will persist through H2CY25, so we expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.9% in FY26, obliging more rate cuts, enabling real GDP growth of 8.5%+ in FY26. 


India: More Rate Cuts Likely as Inflation Edges to the Bottom of RBI's Target Range

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India’s ambitious growth trajectory aims for 8-10% of global GDP by 2040, driven by strategic investments in 18 high-growth sectors, blending national priorities and global opportunities. </li>
<li>
Key sectors identified span technology, manufacturing, and sustainability, with a projected $1.7-2 trillion in revenue by 2030, shaping India’s global economic leadership. </li>
<li>Collaborative action and policy support are essential for unlocking sectoral potential, positioning India to capitalize on its capabilities and become a key player in the global economy.</li>
</ul>


India’s ambitious growth trajectory aims for 8-10% of global GDP by 2040, driven by strategic investments in 18 high-growth sectors, blending national priorities and global opportunities. 

Key sectors identified span technology, manufacturing, and sustainability, with a projected $1.7-2 trillion in revenue by 2030, shaping India’s global economic leadership. 
Collaborative action and policy support are essential for unlocking sectoral potential, positioning India to capitalize on its capabilities and become a key player in the global economy.


Thematic Report on Sectors of the Future: India’s Path to Global Economic Leadership

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Softer demand both domestically and globally continues to impact volume growth</li><li>Key exceptions to this are TVS Motor, Eicher Motors, and Mahindra &amp; Mahindra</li><li>While TVS Motors is riding on the back of its successful models and variants, including the EVs, it has also been expanding its geographic footprint, thus adding further legs to its growth</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Softer demand both domestically and globally continues to impact volume growthKey exceptions to this are TVS Motor, Eicher Motors, and Mahindra &amp; MahindraWhile TVS Motors is riding on the back of its successful models and variants, including the EVs, it has also been expanding its geographic footprint, thus adding further legs to its growthContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Autos (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Operating deleverage, RM cost to impact margin

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Jun’25 Wholesale Volumes: The overall domestic 2W industry witnessed 2% marginal uptick (and 10% YoY without HMSI) in volumes, led by outperformance in exports (up 35% YoY) while the domestic industry witnessed 3% YoY decline.</li><li>Domestic PV industry sales volume was down 7-8% YoY, due to declines in Hyundai /TaMo /Maruti being partly offset by strong volumes by M&amp;M and JSW MG, followed by Toyota.</li><li>The domestic CV industry (proxy) saw a degrowth of 4% YoY, while the domestic tractor industry (proxy) registered 15% YoY volume growth in Jun’25.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jun’25 Wholesale Volumes: The overall domestic 2W industry witnessed 2% marginal uptick (and 10% YoY without HMSI) in volumes, led by outperformance in exports (up 35% YoY) while the domestic industry witnessed 3% YoY decline.Domestic PV industry sales volume was down 7-8% YoY, due to declines in Hyundai /TaMo /Maruti being partly offset by strong volumes by M&amp;M and JSW MG, followed by Toyota.The domestic CV industry (proxy) saw a degrowth of 4% YoY, while the domestic tractor industry (proxy) registered 15% YoY volume growth in Jun’25.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>May’25 Wholesale Volumes: The overall domestic 2W industry witnessed a 3% marginal uptick (and 7% YoY without HMSI) in volumes led by outperformance in TVS, RE, Suzuki Motorcycles (Bajaj/ Hero grew by 2% each).</li><li>Domestic PV industry sales volumes were flat YoY. While Toyota, M&amp;M, JSW, MG, and Kia reported strong volumes, this was offset by volume declines in Hyundai, TaMo, and Maruti.</li><li>The domestic CV industry saw a degrowth of 1% YoY, while the domestic tractor industry registered 8% YoY volume growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

May’25 Wholesale Volumes: The overall domestic 2W industry witnessed a 3% marginal uptick (and 7% YoY without HMSI) in volumes led by outperformance in TVS, RE, Suzuki Motorcycles (Bajaj/ Hero grew by 2% each).Domestic PV industry sales volumes were flat YoY. While Toyota, M&amp;M, JSW, MG, and Kia reported strong volumes, this was offset by volume declines in Hyundai, TaMo, and Maruti.The domestic CV industry saw a degrowth of 1% YoY, while the domestic tractor industry registered 8% YoY volume growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Limited is an Indian multinational automobile manufacturer that designs, manufactures, and sells a diverse portfolio of passenger cars and utility vehicles, including electric variants. The company is a key player in India's electric vehicle market and also owns the British car manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover. It is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in 1945 as Tata Motors Limited, with the passenger vehicles business later carved out as a dedicated subsidiary.

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Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV IN)

India: More Rate Cuts Likely as Inflation Edges to the Bottom of RBI's Target Range

Despite faster easing, RBI is still behind the curve with real policy rate at +3.4%. Vegetable deflation to persist Jul-Dec'25, prompting 100bp...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Thematic Report on Sectors of the Future: India’s Path to Global Economic Leadership

India aims for 8-10% of global GDP by 2040 through strategic investments in key sectors, projecting $1.7-2 trillion in revenue by 2030 and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Autos (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Operating deleverage, RM cost to impact margin

While TVS Motors is riding on the back of its successful models and variants, including the EVs, it has also been expanding its geographic...

HDFC Securities

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - June 2025

Domestic PV industry sales volume was down 7-8% YoY, due to declines in Hyundai /TaMo /Maruti being partly offset by strong volumes by M&M and JSW...

Axis Direct

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - May 2025

The overall domestic 2W industry witnessed a 3% marginal uptick (and 7% YoY without HMSI) in volumes led by outperformance in TVS, RE, Suzuki...

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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India: More Rate Cuts Likely as Inflation Edges to the Bottom of RBI's Target Range

​Despite faster easing, RBI is still behind the curve with real policy rate at +3.4%. Vegetable deflation to persist Jul-Dec'25, prompting 100bp...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Thematic Report on Sectors of the Future: India’s Path to Global Economic Leadership

​India aims for 8-10% of global GDP by 2040 through strategic investments in key sectors, projecting $1.7-2 trillion in revenue by 2030 and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Autos (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Operating deleverage, RM cost to impact margin

While TVS Motors is riding on the back of its successful models and variants, including the EVs, it has also been expanding its geographic...

HDFC Securities

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - June 2025

Domestic PV industry sales volume was down 7-8% YoY, due to declines in Hyundai /TaMo /Maruti being partly offset by strong volumes by M&M and JSW...

Axis Direct

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - May 2025

The overall domestic 2W industry witnessed a 3% marginal uptick (and 7% YoY without HMSI) in volumes led by outperformance in TVS, RE, Suzuki...

Axis Direct

Despite faster easing, RBI is still behind the curve with real policy rate at +3.4%. Vegetable deflation to persist Jul-Dec'25, prompting 100bp...

India aims for 8-10% of global GDP by 2040 through strategic investments in key sectors, projecting $1.7-2 trillion in revenue by 2030 and...