External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong Indian Operations: FY26 India EBITDA rose to Rs 33,036 Cr, up 17% YoY, with margins rising to 24% from 21% YoY, aided by record volumes.</li><li>Q4 EBITDA/t stood robust at Rs 15,245/t (4% ahead of our estimate, up 20%/16% YoY/QoQ), driven by higher NSRs and volume ramp-up at Kalinganagar Phase II (fully commissioned now).</li><li>Netherlands Uncertainty an Overhang: Netherlands EBITDA grew by 9% QoQ (+373% QoQ on the impacted base) to Rs 624 Cr, led by higher steel deliveries, partly offset by lower NSRs. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong Indian Operations: FY26 India EBITDA rose to Rs 33,036 Cr, up 17% YoY, with margins rising to 24% from 21% YoY, aided by record volumes.Q4 EBITDA/t stood robust at Rs 15,245/t (4% ahead of our estimate, up 20%/16% YoY/QoQ), driven by higher NSRs and volume ramp-up at Kalinganagar Phase II (fully commissioned now).Netherlands Uncertainty an Overhang: Netherlands EBITDA grew by 9% QoQ (+373% QoQ on the impacted base) to Rs 624 Cr, led by higher steel deliveries, partly offset by lower NSRs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tata Steel Ltd - Robust Q4, EBITDA Beats Consensus; Outlook Positive

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The steel market is tightening fast: demand is running ahead of production, while higher coking coal costs strengthen the case for price hikes.</li>
<li>Export momentum is broadening mills’ demand pool, with Asian markets emerging as an increasingly important outlet for Indian steelmakers.</li>
<li>Imports are the catch: rising Chinese inflows could put a ceiling on domestic prices, limiting how far mills can push realizations.</li>
</ul>


The steel market is tightening fast: demand is running ahead of production, while higher coking coal costs strengthen the case for price hikes.
Export momentum is broadening mills’ demand pool, with Asian markets emerging as an increasingly important outlet for Indian steelmakers.
Imports are the catch: rising Chinese inflows could put a ceiling on domestic prices, limiting how far mills can push realizations.


India’s Steel Market Turns Constructive, With Imports Emerging as the Wildcard

<ul><li>India volumes strong; pricing recovery underway post trough: Despite record sales of 6 MT and Rs 890 Cr in cost savings, Indian operations' EBITDA fell 5% QoQ due to steel prices hitting a 5-year low.</li><li>However, Q3 likely marked the cycle's floor; management expects a recovery in spreads in Q4 with NSRs rising Rs 2,300/t, partly offset by a $15/t bump in coking coal consumption costs.</li><li>With a strong downstream mix and volume growth from Ludhiana and a full furnace schedule (no relining) in FY27, the outlook remains resilient. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India volumes strong; pricing recovery underway post trough: Despite record sales of 6 MT and Rs 890 Cr in cost savings, Indian operations' EBITDA fell 5% QoQ due to steel prices hitting a 5-year low.However, Q3 likely marked the cycle's floor; management expects a recovery in spreads in Q4 with NSRs rising Rs 2,300/t, partly offset by a $15/t bump in coking coal consumption costs.With a strong downstream mix and volume growth from Ludhiana and a full furnace schedule (no relining) in FY27, the outlook remains resilient. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tata Steel Ltd - Q3: Largely Inline; Europe Policy Reset Structurally Supportive

<ul>
<li>Tata Steel India hit record output of 6.34 MT in 3QFY26, with deliveries crossing 6 MT, driven by strong domestic demand.</li>
<li>EU’s CBAM raises carbon costs and pressures exports, but tightening import rules could advantage Tata Steel Netherlands through stronger local demand.</li>
<li>CCI’s cartel findings against major steelmakers introduce regulatory overhang, potential penalties, and prolonged review risk, with pricing conduct under scrutiny.</li>
</ul>


Tata Steel India hit record output of 6.34 MT in 3QFY26, with deliveries crossing 6 MT, driven by strong domestic demand.
EU’s CBAM raises carbon costs and pressures exports, but tightening import rules could advantage Tata Steel Netherlands through stronger local demand.
CCI’s cartel findings against major steelmakers introduce regulatory overhang, potential penalties, and prolonged review risk, with pricing conduct under scrutiny.


Tata Steel: Strong India Momentum Provides Cushion as Carbon Costs and CCI Scrutiny Build

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Premium hard-coking-coal averaged about USD 236/ton FOB Australia in Jan–July 2026, up 25% year on year, as Australian disruptions, Chinese supply losses and Middle East freight risks tightened the market.</li>
<li>India imports the overwhelming majority of metallurgical coking coal used by blast-furnace mills. Every USD 10/ton rise in coal can add roughly USD 7–9/ton to steelmaking costs.</li>
<li>The near-term earnings risk is concentrated in blast-furnace producers with weaker pricing power. Longer term, India’s capacity expansion deepens coking-coal exposure unless domestic washing and blending improve materially.</li>
</ul>


Premium hard-coking-coal averaged about USD 236/ton FOB Australia in Jan–July 2026, up 25% year on year, as Australian disruptions, Chinese supply losses and Middle East freight risks tightened the market.
India imports the overwhelming majority of metallurgical coking coal used by blast-furnace mills. Every USD 10/ton rise in coal can add roughly USD 7–9/ton to steelmaking costs.
The near-term earnings risk is concentrated in blast-furnace producers with weaker pricing power. Longer term, India’s capacity expansion deepens coking-coal exposure unless domestic washing and blending improve materially.


How Rising Coking Coal Prices Impacting Indian Steel Producers?

India

Tata Steel Limited is an Indian multinational steel company that manufactures and distributes a wide range of steel products, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel, tubes, and wire rods. The company serves diverse sectors such as automotive, construction, engineering, and consumer goods. Tata Steel is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on August 26, 1907.

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Tata Steel (TATA IN)

Tata Steel Ltd - Robust Q4, EBITDA Beats Consensus; Outlook Positive

Strong Indian Operations: FY26 India EBITDA rose to Rs 33,036 Cr, up 17% YoY, with margins rising to 24% from 21% YoY, aided by record volumes.

Axis Direct

India’s Steel Market Turns Constructive, With Imports Emerging as the Wildcard

Consumption is leaving production behind in India’s steel market, with the widening gap adding fresh momentum to the price outlook.

Mint Finance

Tata Steel Ltd - Q3: Largely Inline; Europe Policy Reset Structurally Supportive

Despite record sales of 6 MT and Rs 890 Cr in cost savings, Indian operations' EBITDA fell 5% QoQ due to steel prices hitting a 5-year low.

Axis Direct

Tata Steel: Strong India Momentum Provides Cushion as Carbon Costs and CCI Scrutiny Build

Record Indian volumes and safeguard duties strengthen earnings visibility, while CBAM costs and cartel reviews introduce manageable, time-bound...

Mint Finance

How Rising Coking Coal Prices Impacting Indian Steel Producers?

The headline is a 25% YoY rise in premium hard coking-coal prices during the first seven months of 2026. How this will impact the Indian steel...

Nimish Maheshwari

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