Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.</li>
<li>Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.</li>
<li>Outperformance to continue? <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> ,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a>have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.</li>
</ul>


On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.
Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.
Outperformance to continue? JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN),Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) ,Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.


Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights, DBX Commodities Limited

DBX Commodities

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights

DBX Commodities Limited

DBX provides the most accurate and comprehensive real-time data and insights for dry bulk commodities based on satellite imagery and intelligence.

Alex CLAUDE, an expert in commodity tech with 15 years experience in the commodity trading industry, teamed up with the Signal Group in 2020 and started DBX. 

Our product is the result of a unique combination of domain and technological expertise. We offer the most comprehensive, accurate and deepest research analytics of the dry bulk commodity market: coal, iron ore, alumina, bauxite, sugar, wheat, soybeans and soymeal.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power  generation reached a record monthly high.</li>
<li>Power  demand in India—and consequently coal demand—is  expected to rise sharply, with peak demand  projected to approach 200 TWh in May according to official sources, driven by warmer weather and  anticipated heat waves. </li>
<li>The monthly decline in power generation resulted in  a 3.4 TWh drop in coal-fired output, while generation  from other energy sources remained broadly stable.</li>
</ul>


Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power  generation reached a record monthly high.
Power  demand in India—and consequently coal demand—is  expected to rise sharply, with peak demand  projected to approach 200 TWh in May according to official sources, driven by warmer weather and  anticipated heat waves. 
The monthly decline in power generation resulted in  a 3.4 TWh drop in coal-fired output, while generation  from other energy sources remained broadly stable.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

National Stock Exchange of India / Index Rebalance

National Stock Exchange of India (NSE IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-stock-exchange" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23751:1" rel="noopener">National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$2.4bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>NSE operates electronic platforms for trading equities, derivatives, currencies, and debt securities, also earning revenue from clearing and settlement services, market data, index licensing, listing fees, connectivity, and technology services.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the index impact, or lack thereof.</li>
</ul>



National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) is looking to raise about US$2.4bn in its upcoming India IPO.
NSE operates electronic platforms for trading equities, derivatives, currencies, and debt securities, also earning revenue from clearing and settlement services, market data, index licensing, listing fees, connectivity, and technology services.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the index impact, or lack thereof.


Aequitas: NSE IPO -Index Flows Won’t Help in the near Term but Will Pickup Later

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Since October, FIIs have sold US$24.2 bn Indian stocks. DIIs have bought US$36bn. The market has been supported by the latter, benefitting from steady SIPs - now at US$3bn monthly.</li>
<li>India households' historical under-ownership of equities and the steady decline in interest rates and returns from property turned domestic investors towards equity. With Indian equities declining steadily, that could change.</li>
<li>Looking at DIIs' sector-wise ownership, we think if domestic MFs are forced to sell, then industrials, consumer discretionary, materials and to a lesser extent, financials could be at risk.</li>
</ul>


Since October, FIIs have sold US$24.2 bn Indian stocks. DIIs have bought US$36bn. The market has been supported by the latter, benefitting from steady SIPs - now at US$3bn monthly.
India households' historical under-ownership of equities and the steady decline in interest rates and returns from property turned domestic investors towards equity. With Indian equities declining steadily, that could change.
Looking at DIIs' sector-wise ownership, we think if domestic MFs are forced to sell, then industrials, consumer discretionary, materials and to a lesser extent, financials could be at risk.


Asian Equities: Which Sectors Could Suffer when Indian Domestics Sell?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability due to tighter scrap spreads and flooding at one of the European units.</li><li>Consolidated EBITDA grew by 26% YoY but declined by 5% QoQ to Rs 7,601 Cr (3% beat vs. consensus), led by strong upstream Aluminium and Copper EBITDA.</li><li>NALCO’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT beat our and consensus estimates because of strong performance by both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability due to tighter scrap spreads and flooding at one of the European units.Consolidated EBITDA grew by 26% YoY but declined by 5% QoQ to Rs 7,601 Cr (3% beat vs. consensus), led by strong upstream Aluminium and Copper EBITDA.NALCO’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT beat our and consensus estimates because of strong performance by both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals & Mining: Q3FY25 Review - Steel EBITDA Weakness Persists

India

Tata Steel Limited is an Indian multinational steel company that manufactures and distributes a wide range of steel products, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel, tubes, and wire rods. The company serves diverse sectors such as automotive, construction, engineering, and consumer goods. Tata Steel is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on August 26, 1907.

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Tata Steel (TATA IN)

Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

Rahul Jain

India Coal Monitor (12 March 2025)

Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power generation reached a record monthly high. Power demand in India—and consequently coal...

DBX Commodities

Aequitas: NSE IPO -Index Flows Won’t Help in the near Term but Will Pickup Later

National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) is looking to raise about US$2.4bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the index flows or...

Sumeet Singh

Asian Equities: Which Sectors Could Suffer when Indian Domestics Sell?

Indian DIIs have bought $36bn since October vs $24.2bn FII selling. But if SIPs drop & DIIs are forced to sell some sectors may be at significant...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Metals & Mining: Q3FY25 Review - Steel EBITDA Weakness Persists

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability due to tighter scrap spreads and flooding at one of the...

Axis Direct

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Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

​India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

Rahul Jain

India Coal Monitor (12 March 2025)

Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power generation reached a record monthly high. Power demand in India—and consequently coal...

DBX Commodities

Aequitas: NSE IPO -Index Flows Won’t Help in the near Term but Will Pickup Later

National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) is looking to raise about US$2.4bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the index flows or...

Sumeet Singh

Asian Equities: Which Sectors Could Suffer when Indian Domestics Sell?

​Indian DIIs have bought $36bn since October vs $24.2bn FII selling. But if SIPs drop & DIIs are forced to sell some sectors may be at significant...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Metals & Mining: Q3FY25 Review - Steel EBITDA Weakness Persists

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability due to tighter scrap spreads and flooding at one of the...

Axis Direct

India's DGTR recommends 12% safeguard duty on steel imports, large steel companies lobbying for it, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Jindal Steel have...

Indian DIIs have bought $36bn since October vs $24.2bn FII selling. But if SIPs drop & DIIs are forced to sell some sectors may be at significant...