Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) delivered a strong set of numbers on the back of higher-than-expected growth in AUM (+32% YoY), customer additions (+42% YoY) and new loans booked (+34% YoY)</li><li>Asset quality improved marginally with GS-II/GS-III at 1.2%/0.9% however, credit costs were slightly higher on the back of prudent provisioning</li><li>Operating efficiency remained steady with the C/I ratio at 34%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance (BAF) delivered a strong set of numbers on the back of higher-than-expected growth in AUM (+32% YoY), customer additions (+42% YoY) and new loans booked (+34% YoY)Asset quality improved marginally with GS-II/GS-III at 1.2%/0.9% however, credit costs were slightly higher on the back of prudent provisioningOperating efficiency remained steady with the C/I ratio at 34%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Colgate Palmolive

<ul><li>We hosted the ISG index call (link) and the key message was recovery in the business environment ahead</li><li>While ISG maintained the CY23 outlook on growth in managed services deal bookings (+5% for CY23), recovery ahead is based on (1) improving pipeline for new scope projects (vs renewals &amp; extension heavy recently that drove vendor consolidation) (2) approval threshold for projects and transition timelines normalising with stable pricing environment (3) pipeline build-up for SIs with increased enterprise interest in captives and (4) stability to return in BFSI, which was impacted by executive movement earlier in enterprises</li><li>The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary services</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hosted the ISG index call (link) and the key message was recovery in the business environment aheadWhile ISG maintained the CY23 outlook on growth in managed services deal bookings (+5% for CY23), recovery ahead is based on (1) improving pipeline for new scope projects (vs renewals &amp; extension heavy recently that drove vendor consolidation) (2) approval threshold for projects and transition timelines normalising with stable pricing environment (3) pipeline build-up for SIs with increased enterprise interest in captives and (4) stability to return in BFSI, which was impacted by executive movement earlier in enterprisesThe current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary servicesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>IT sector growth has slipped on account of first-order and second-order implications of the prevalent macros</li><li>The macro challenges are manifesting into a set of outcomes for the sector ranging from cuts in discretionary spending, delay in decision making (slower conversion from pipeline to TCV), slower deal ramp-up, to change in the propensity for price increases/volume discounts</li><li>While the resilience/opportunity in the sector is the medium-term recoil (high-single digit CC growth in FY25E following mid-single digit in FY24E), in this note we focus on the ‘near-term demand’ markers and assess the growth dispersion despite the aggregate slowdown</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IT sector growth has slipped on account of first-order and second-order implications of the prevalent macrosThe macro challenges are manifesting into a set of outcomes for the sector ranging from cuts in discretionary spending, delay in decision making (slower conversion from pipeline to TCV), slower deal ramp-up, to change in the propensity for price increases/volume discountsWhile the resilience/opportunity in the sector is the medium-term recoil (high-single digit CC growth in FY25E following mid-single digit in FY24E), in this note we focus on the ‘near-term demand’ markers and assess the growth dispersion despite the aggregate slowdownContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

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Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN)

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Colgate Palmolive

Bajaj Finance (BAF) delivered a strong set of numbers on the back of higher-than-expected growth in AUM (+32% YoY), customer additions (+42% YoY)...

HDFC Securities

IT Sector Update: Recovery ahead

The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary service

HDFC Securities

IT Sector Update - Recovery Ahead

The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary services

HDFC Securities

IT sector: Mixed signals; stay selective

The macro challenges are manifesting into a set of outcomes for the sector ranging from cuts in discretionary spending, delay in decision making

HDFC Securities

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