Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were below our estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected credit costs (65 bps) and lower other income</li><li>While the loan growth moderated to ~15% YoY, the deposit traction remained steady</li><li>NIMs continued to remain under pressure (-11bps QoQ) due to reducing share of unsecured retail and rising cost of funds (+5 bps QoQ) and are likely to moderate further during FY25</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were below our estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected credit costs (65 bps) and lower other incomeWhile the loan growth moderated to ~15% YoY, the deposit traction remained steadyNIMs continued to remain under pressure (-11bps QoQ) due to reducing share of unsecured retail and rising cost of funds (+5 bps QoQ) and are likely to moderate further during FY25Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra, IndiaMART InterMESH, RBL Bank, Mastek

<ul><li>The IT sector growth is in the middle of its recovery, having bottomed out two quarters ago, and is expected to achieve a high single-digit over the next three quarters</li><li>Current stock prices reflect increased confidence in this trajectory</li><li>AI is proving to be a net positive for the sector, and with GCC growth differential peaking, concerns around terminal growth are easing, supporting sustained demand</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The IT sector growth is in the middle of its recovery, having bottomed out two quarters ago, and is expected to achieve a high single-digit over the next three quartersCurrent stock prices reflect increased confidence in this trajectoryAI is proving to be a net positive for the sector, and with GCC growth differential peaking, concerns around terminal growth are easing, supporting sustained demandContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IT Sector (Q2FY25E Results Preview): Recovery in progress

<ul><li>We hosted over 15 companies and several industry experts at the HDFC Securities’ 8th annual IT conference</li><li>Key takeaways included (1) continued (prosaic) commentary on cost optimisation focus but signs of improvement in demand</li><li>(2) stable to upward bias in pricing and some improvement in the decision cycle</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hosted over 15 companies and several industry experts at the HDFC Securities’ 8th annual IT conferenceKey takeaways included (1) continued (prosaic) commentary on cost optimisation focus but signs of improvement in demand(2) stable to upward bias in pricing and some improvement in the decision cycleContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Axis Top Picks: We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 41% over the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50 index (31.1% return over the same period) by a wide margin.</li><li>Also, it delivered a return of 2.7% in the last month against the 1.1% returns posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.</li><li>A few picks that reported excellent returns included Lupin (17.2%), TVS Motor Company (11.2%), Aurobindo Pharma (9.4%), HCL Technologies (6.7%) and Bharti Airtel (6.5%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks: We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 41% over the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50 index (31.1% return over the same period) by a wide margin.Also, it delivered a return of 2.7% in the last month against the 1.1% returns posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.A few picks that reported excellent returns included Lupin (17.2%), TVS Motor Company (11.2%), Aurobindo Pharma (9.4%), HCL Technologies (6.7%) and Bharti Airtel (6.5%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Aug 2024

India

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

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Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN)

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra, IndiaMART InterMESH, RBL Bank, Mastek

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were below our estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected credit costs (65 bps) and...

HDFC Securities

IT Sector (Q2FY25E Results Preview): Recovery in progress

The IT sector growth is in the middle of its recovery, having bottomed out two quarters ago, and is expected to achieve a high single-digit over...

HDFC Securities

IT Sector: Recovery Signs

Key takeaways included (1) continued (prosaic) commentary on cost optimisation focus but signs of improvement in demand (2) stable to upward bias...

HDFC Securities

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Aug 2024

A few picks that reported excellent returns included Lupin (17.2%), TVS Motor Company (11.2%), Aurobindo Pharma (9.4%), HCL Technologies (6.7%) and...

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)