Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.</li>
<li>The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI -- ACWI-US) and the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remain topside their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As discussed last week (October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass), we upgraded our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish, saying to use any pre-election pullback as opportunity to buy.
The pullback appears to be underway, and we are buyers as long as ACWI-US and S&amp;P 500 remain above their aforementioned bases


Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).</li>
<li>Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).
Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were below our estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected credit costs (65 bps) and lower other income</li><li>While the loan growth moderated to ~15% YoY, the deposit traction remained steady</li><li>NIMs continued to remain under pressure (-11bps QoQ) due to reducing share of unsecured retail and rising cost of funds (+5 bps QoQ) and are likely to moderate further during FY25</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were below our estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected credit costs (65 bps) and lower other incomeWhile the loan growth moderated to ~15% YoY, the deposit traction remained steadyNIMs continued to remain under pressure (-11bps QoQ) due to reducing share of unsecured retail and rising cost of funds (+5 bps QoQ) and are likely to moderate further during FY25Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra, IndiaMART InterMESH, RBL Bank, Mastek

<ul><li>The IT sector growth is in the middle of its recovery, having bottomed out two quarters ago, and is expected to achieve a high single-digit over the next three quarters</li><li>Current stock prices reflect increased confidence in this trajectory</li><li>AI is proving to be a net positive for the sector, and with GCC growth differential peaking, concerns around terminal growth are easing, supporting sustained demand</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The IT sector growth is in the middle of its recovery, having bottomed out two quarters ago, and is expected to achieve a high single-digit over the next three quartersCurrent stock prices reflect increased confidence in this trajectoryAI is proving to be a net positive for the sector, and with GCC growth differential peaking, concerns around terminal growth are easing, supporting sustained demandContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IT Sector (Q2FY25E Results Preview): Recovery in progress

<ul><li>We hosted over 15 companies and several industry experts at the HDFC Securities’ 8th annual IT conference</li><li>Key takeaways included (1) continued (prosaic) commentary on cost optimisation focus but signs of improvement in demand</li><li>(2) stable to upward bias in pricing and some improvement in the decision cycle</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hosted over 15 companies and several industry experts at the HDFC Securities’ 8th annual IT conferenceKey takeaways included (1) continued (prosaic) commentary on cost optimisation focus but signs of improvement in demand(2) stable to upward bias in pricing and some improvement in the decision cycleContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

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Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN)

Buying Global Technology; SPX and MSCI ACWI Above Base Supports; Sea, TSMC, SAP, Luxshare, & More

Buying Global Technology; $SPX and MSCI $ACWI Remain Above Base Supports at 5650-5670 and $117; Buying Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $SE $SAP $GRAB...

Vermilion Research

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

There could be 16 constituent changes in December. one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra, IndiaMART InterMESH, RBL Bank, Mastek

Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank’s (KMB) earnings were below our estimates, largely due to higher-than-expected credit costs (65 bps) and...

HDFC Securities

IT Sector (Q2FY25E Results Preview): Recovery in progress

The IT sector growth is in the middle of its recovery, having bottomed out two quarters ago, and is expected to achieve a high single-digit over...

HDFC Securities

IT Sector: Recovery Signs

Key takeaways included (1) continued (prosaic) commentary on cost optimisation focus but signs of improvement in demand (2) stable to upward bias...

HDFC Securities

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