Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months in March and April.</li><li>M&amp;A remained elevated in the month following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices.</li><li>Sentiment Update Following two very strong months in March and April (Gold, Silver, and the GDX were up 8.6%, 19.3%, and 18.9%, respectively), precious metals took a breath and were down slightly in the month of May.</li></ul>

The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months in March and April.M&amp;A remained elevated in the month following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices.Sentiment Update Following two very strong months in March and April (Gold, Silver, and the GDX were up 8.6%, 19.3%, and 18.9%, respectively), precious metals took a breath and were down slightly in the month of May.

<ul><li>The precious metals and mining market continued to rise in April even after a sizeable outperformance of broader indices in March</li><li>M&amp;A accelerated in the month of April following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices</li><li>This month only strengthens our confidence that 2023 will be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals, and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly</li></ul>

The precious metals and mining market continued to rise in April even after a sizeable outperformance of broader indices in MarchM&amp;A accelerated in the month of April following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals pricesThis month only strengthens our confidence that 2023 will be a standout year for both precious metals and base metals, and encourage investors to position themselves accordingly

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week's FOMC announcement and quad witching allowed for some breadth improvement, and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Russell Micro Cap indexes broke above their respective downtrends.</li>
<li>While this is undoubtedly a positive, we are waiting for more confirmation. It is not uncommon to have misdirection following important FOMC meetings.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000(IWM) remains below major resistance at $209, which was support for all of 2021. This is arguably the most important resistance level in regards to the broad market.</li>
</ul>


Last week's FOMC announcement and quad witching allowed for some breadth improvement, and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Russell Micro Cap indexes broke above their respective downtrends.
While this is undoubtedly a positive, we are waiting for more confirmation. It is not uncommon to have misdirection following important FOMC meetings.
The Russell 2000(IWM) remains below major resistance at $209, which was support for all of 2021. This is arguably the most important resistance level in regards to the broad market.


Russell 2000 Testing Resistance; Buying Steel, Copper, Uranium, Ag Equipment Stocks

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

Teck Resources (TECK/B CN)

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

Mining Monthly: May Edition

The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months...

Atrium Research

Mining Monthly: April Edition

What you need to know: • The precious metals and mining market continued to rise in April even after a sizeable outperformance of broader indices...

Atrium Research

Russell 2000 Testing Resistance; Buying Steel, Copper, Uranium, Ag Equipment Stocks

The Russell 2000 $IWM remains below major resistance at $209, which was support for all of 2021. This is arguably the most important resistance...

Vermilion Research

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research