European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>De Beers sale shows competitive tension: Endiama bid vs Botswana match rights; potential $2.5–4bn proceeds improve Anglo’s simplification and special-dividend optics.</li>
<li>Votes: circular early/mid-Nov; same-day early-Dec. Teck-B 66⅔% remains higher-beta; interloper low pre-vote, very low post-vote.</li>
<li>Spread: AAL 2,832p; TECK C$58.50; GBPCAD 1.86685 → implied TECK C$70.32; ~16.7% discount (~20.1% upside). Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged.</li>
</ul>


De Beers sale shows competitive tension: Endiama bid vs Botswana match rights; potential $2.5–4bn proceeds improve Anglo’s simplification and special-dividend optics.
Votes: circular early/mid-Nov; same-day early-Dec. Teck-B 66⅔% remains higher-beta; interloper low pre-vote, very low post-vote.
Spread: AAL 2,832p; TECK C$58.50; GBPCAD 1.86685 → implied TECK C$70.32; ~16.7% discount (~20.1% upside). Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301× AAL, fully FX-hedged.


Copper Convergence — Votes & De Beers in Focus

<ul>
<li>Anglo and Teck agreed an at-market merger of equals, creating a copper-tilted major. Pro forma ownership about 62%/38%; HQ Vancouver, primary LSE listing. Anglo plans a sizeable pre-close special dividend.</li>
<li>Scenario-Based synergy valuation indicates multi-billion upside, with recurring cost savings earlier and long-dated Chile adjacency optionality subject to partner alignment and permitting. This frames interloper incentives, break-price support, and re-rating.</li>
<li>Approvals hinge on Canada’s net-benefit test and multi-jurisdictional antitrust; shareholder hurdles look manageable. I favor a hedged long-TECK/short-AAL pair capturing a double-digit spread, with dividend liabilities on the AAL short.</li>
</ul>


Anglo and Teck agreed an at-market merger of equals, creating a copper-tilted major. Pro forma ownership about 62%/38%; HQ Vancouver, primary LSE listing. Anglo plans a sizeable pre-close special dividend.
Scenario-Based synergy valuation indicates multi-billion upside, with recurring cost savings earlier and long-dated Chile adjacency optionality subject to partner alignment and permitting. This frames interloper incentives, break-price support, and re-rating.
Approvals hinge on Canada’s net-benefit test and multi-jurisdictional antitrust; shareholder hurdles look manageable. I favor a hedged long-TECK/short-AAL pair capturing a double-digit spread, with dividend liabilities on the AAL short.


Copper Convergence — Anglo–Teck’s Path to Scale and Value

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>Following the regulatory approval from the Government of Canada, Glencore's cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources (EVR) is expected to close on 11 July 2024.</li>
<li>The cash acquisition is forecasted not to cause any passive fund flows based on the deal structure.</li>
<li>The potential demerger introduces the risk for Glencore approaching the exit threshold of STOXX Europe 50. This is yet undetermined due to the long time horizon.</li>
</ul>


Following the regulatory approval from the Government of Canada, Glencore's cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources (EVR) is expected to close on 11 July 2024.
The cash acquisition is forecasted not to cause any passive fund flows based on the deal structure.
The potential demerger introduces the risk for Glencore approaching the exit threshold of STOXX Europe 50. This is yet undetermined due to the long time horizon.


Glencore (GLEN): Green Light from Canada for $6.9bn Acquisition of EVR. Demerger on the Table.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.</li>
<li>Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
<li>ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.</li>
</ul>


A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.


Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports <em>that are currently being tested</em> would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

Canada

Teck Resources Ltd. is an integrated natural resource group with activities in mining, smelting, and refining.  The Company mines zinc, copper, molybdenum, gold, and metallurgical coal in the United States, Canada, Peru, and Chile. Teck also produces refined metals, specialized metal products, and other products.

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Teck Resources (TECK/B CN)

Copper Convergence — Votes & De Beers in Focus

Anglo–Teck nears early-Dec votes as De Beers sale heats up (Endiama vs Botswana). Spread ~16.7% offers ~20% upside to terms. Stay long TECK(B)...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Copper Convergence — Anglo–Teck’s Path to Scale and Value

Anglo–Teck nil-premium merger creates a copper-heavy major. Double-digit spread solid synergies, approvals manageable. Trade: long TECK/short AAL...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Glencore (GLEN): Green Light from Canada for $6.9bn Acquisition of EVR. Demerger on the Table.

Glencore's $6.9bn cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources is expected to be followed by a demerger which increases the risk...

Dimitris Ioannidis

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Copper Convergence — Votes & De Beers in Focus

Anglo–Teck nears early-Dec votes as De Beers sale heats up (Endiama vs Botswana). Spread ~16.7% offers ~20% upside to terms. Stay long TECK(B)...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Copper Convergence — Anglo–Teck’s Path to Scale and Value

Anglo–Teck nil-premium merger creates a copper-heavy major. Double-digit spread solid synergies, approvals manageable. Trade: long TECK/short AAL...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Glencore (GLEN): Green Light from Canada for $6.9bn Acquisition of EVR. Demerger on the Table.

​Glencore's $6.9bn cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources is expected to be followed by a demerger which increases the risk...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Commodities Testing Resistance; Buys in Global Defensives (Staples, Utilities, Telecomm), Commodity...

Vermilion Research

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

Glencore's $6.9bn cash acquisition of 77% stake in Teck's Elk Valley Resources is expected to be followed by a demerger which increases the risk...