European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Poste’s €10.8bn cash-and-share offer for TIM leaves no meaningful arbitrage spread, with shares trading at parity to deal value and implying full completion plus residual optionality.</li>
<li>Conversion of savings shares raises execution complexity, requiring 58.53% minority acceptance; while achievable, this introduces coordination risk and modest potential for a sweetener if participation stalls.</li>
<li>With arbitrage carry effectively zero, the opportunity shifts to Poste, where post-announcement weakness may offer entry into a strategically attractive, synergy-driven consolidation at undemanding valuation.</li>
</ul>


Poste’s €10.8bn cash-and-share offer for TIM leaves no meaningful arbitrage spread, with shares trading at parity to deal value and implying full completion plus residual optionality.
Conversion of savings shares raises execution complexity, requiring 58.53% minority acceptance; while achievable, this introduces coordination risk and modest potential for a sweetener if participation stalls.
With arbitrage carry effectively zero, the opportunity shifts to Poste, where post-announcement weakness may offer entry into a strategically attractive, synergy-driven consolidation at undemanding valuation.


Poste–TIM: A Done Deal in Pricing, Not Yet in Votes

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.</li>
<li>We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.
In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.
We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

<ul>
<li>June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.</li>
<li>Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.</li>
</ul>


June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.
Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.
Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

<ul>
<li>May saw selective convergence reassert itself across Europe’s dual-class universe, with broad tightening in several structurally wide and liquidity-driven spreads offsetting renewed widening in Carlsberg and Grifols.</li>
<li>Both median and mean tightened, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights. Dispersion remains driven by liquidity, concentrated ownership, implementation constraints and episodic positioning reversals across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Handelsbanken, Media-for-Europe and Telecom Italia delivered the strongest tightening moves in May, while Carlsberg and Grifols reversed sharply, re-widening after April’s convergence phase.</li>
</ul>


May saw selective convergence reassert itself across Europe’s dual-class universe, with broad tightening in several structurally wide and liquidity-driven spreads offsetting renewed widening in Carlsberg and Grifols.
Both median and mean tightened, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights. Dispersion remains driven by liquidity, concentrated ownership, implementation constraints and episodic positioning reversals across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Handelsbanken, Media-for-Europe and Telecom Italia delivered the strongest tightening moves in May, while Carlsberg and Grifols reversed sharply, re-widening after April’s convergence phase.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '26 Report

Italy

Telecom Italia S.p.A., through subsidiaries, offers fixed line and mobile telephone and data transmission services in Italy and abroad.  The Company offers local and long-distance telephone, satellite communications, Internet access, and teleconferencing services.

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Telecom Italia SPA (TIT IM)

Poste–TIM: A Done Deal in Pricing, Not Yet in Votes

Poste’s bid for TIM looks like a done deal on price—but not yet on votes. With the spread gone, the real question shifts to execution risk and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

SE600 members Beazley and Schroders will be deleted from the index after today's close. We expect Vontobel (VONN SW) and B&M European Value Retail...

Afridi Reyal

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

June brought renewed divergence across European ord/pref pairs. Structural outliers widened, convergence became more selective, and implementation...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '26 Report

European dual-class spreads tightened again in May as liquidity-driven convergence resumed. Handelsbanken, MFE and Telecom Italia led compression,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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