Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Vitesco Technologies Group / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>The official index changes for the March 2024 review could be announced after the close of 5th March 2024.</li>
<li>I currently do not see any changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
The official index changes for the March 2024 review could be announced after the close of 5th March 2024.
I currently do not see any changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: M&A Candidates Morphosys and Vitesco Could Face Index Flows

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There are currently no changes expected for the DAX changes but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-lufthansa-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21667:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresenius-medical-care-ag-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21622:1" rel="noopener">Fresenius Medical Care &amp; (FME GR)</a> are quite close to becoming ADDs.</li>
<li>For the MDAX index, there could an intra-review change in January 2024 and then one more change in the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
There are currently no changes expected for the DAX changes but Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR) and Fresenius Medical Care &amp; (FME GR) are quite close to becoming ADDs.
For the MDAX index, there could an intra-review change in January 2024 and then one more change in the March 2024 index rebal event.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Lufthansa, Zalando, Telefonica, Befesa

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.</li>
<li>Recco or Ascendant for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys (HOLI US)</a>? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12385:1" rel="noopener">Sankyo (6417 JP)</a> is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.</li>
</ul>


The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.
Recco or Ascendant for Hollysys (HOLI US)? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. 

Sankyo (6417 JP) is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefonica Deutschland Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21299:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica SA (TEF SM)</a> surprised everyone with a €2.35/share voluntary cash offer for the minorities in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonica-deutschland-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21687:1" rel="noopener">Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D GR)</a>, 37.6% premium, 4.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs.5.1x Telefonica), €1970 million value.</li>
<li>The premium is attractive, c.31% premium to median IBES consensus TP, so I believe the offer will succeed. There will be no additional acceptance period. Spread is +0.17%.</li>
<li>Telefonica will add 7% more leverage at a time it is seeking the opposite: on the cards are some sort of divestment of Virgin Media O2 or a dividend cut.</li>
</ul>



Telefonica SA (TEF SM) surprised everyone with a €2.35/share voluntary cash offer for the minorities in Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D GR), 37.6% premium, 4.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs.5.1x Telefonica), €1970 million value.
The premium is attractive, c.31% premium to median IBES consensus TP, so I believe the offer will succeed. There will be no additional acceptance period. Spread is +0.17%.
Telefonica will add 7% more leverage at a time it is seeking the opposite: on the cards are some sort of divestment of Virgin Media O2 or a dividend cut.


Telefonica/Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG: Offer for Minorities

<ul>
<li>The index changes for the STOXX Europe Indices for the June 2022 Rebalance were announced yesterday. </li>
<li>There will be 11 Adds and 11 Deletes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index. Some of these changes will also be reflected in the EURO STOXX Index.</li>
<li>Below is a closer look at the Inclusion Parameters and price performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.</li>
</ul>


The index changes for the STOXX Europe Indices for the June 2022 Rebalance were announced yesterday. 
There will be 11 Adds and 11 Deletes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index. Some of these changes will also be reflected in the EURO STOXX Index.
Below is a closer look at the Inclusion Parameters and price performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.


STOXX Europe June 2022 Rebal: Focus on Wacker Chemie, Telefonica Deutschland, CD Projekt, and Nokian

Germany

Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG provides telecommunications services in Germany. The Company offers fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet, and data transmission services to residential and corporate customers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D GR)

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: M&A Candidates Morphosys and Vitesco Could Face Index Flows

I expect Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC GR) to trigger the fast exit rule and get deleted from the MDAX index and MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could get...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Lufthansa, Zalando, Telefonica, Befesa

I expect Telefonica Deutschland to be deleted from the MDAX index in January 2024 once the Tender Offer results are confirmed. If this happens,...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Telefonica/Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG: Offer for Minorities

Telefonica surprises with a cash offer for Telefonica Deutschland, offering a 38% premium and potentially adding more leverage. The offer should...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe June 2022 Rebal: Focus on Wacker Chemie, Telefonica Deutschland, CD Projekt, and Nokian

STOXX Europe June 2022 Index changes have been confirmed. The estimated volume impacts seem low but historical performance is promising and paying...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: M&A Candidates Morphosys and Vitesco Could Face Index Flows

I expect Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC GR) to trigger the fast exit rule and get deleted from the MDAX index and MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could get...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Lufthansa, Zalando, Telefonica, Befesa

I expect Telefonica Deutschland to be deleted from the MDAX index in January 2024 once the Tender Offer results are confirmed. If this happens,...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Telefonica/Telefonica Deutschland Holding AG: Offer for Minorities

​Telefonica surprises with a cash offer for Telefonica Deutschland, offering a 38% premium and potentially adding more leverage. The offer should...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe June 2022 Rebal: Focus on Wacker Chemie, Telefonica Deutschland, CD Projekt, and Nokian

STOXX Europe June 2022 Index changes have been confirmed. The estimated volume impacts seem low but historical performance is promising and paying...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Telefonica surprises with a cash offer for Telefonica Deutschland, offering a 38% premium and potentially adding more leverage. The offer should...