European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Telefónica plans a largely voluntary ERE (6–7k exits) post-4 Nov plan, targeting FY25 provisioning alongside Hispam exits. This creates a reset year and positions FY26 for cleaner margins and FCF.</li>
<li>Benchmarking prior ERE, we forecast €0.5–0.6bn run-rate savings; ~€260m EBITDA uplift in 2026. Applying 5.2× EV/NTM EBITDA to adjusted base yields €6.40/share TP, before associates, minorities, lease-policy adjustments.</li>
<li>Catalysts: 4 Nov strategy, ERE launch mid-Nov, Hispam closings. Key risks: uptake, regulation (Chile/Argentina), backfill erosion. Recommendation: BUY (12–18m); accumulate on weakness into plan headlines and execution milestones.</li>
</ul>


Telefónica plans a largely voluntary ERE (6–7k exits) post-4 Nov plan, targeting FY25 provisioning alongside Hispam exits. This creates a reset year and positions FY26 for cleaner margins and FCF.
Benchmarking prior ERE, we forecast €0.5–0.6bn run-rate savings; ~€260m EBITDA uplift in 2026. Applying 5.2× EV/NTM EBITDA to adjusted base yields €6.40/share TP, before associates, minorities, lease-policy adjustments.
Catalysts: 4 Nov strategy, ERE launch mid-Nov, Hispam closings. Key risks: uptake, regulation (Chile/Argentina), backfill erosion. Recommendation: BUY (12–18m); accumulate on weakness into plan headlines and execution milestones.


<ul>
<li>Telefónica sold its Peruvian subsidiary to Integra Tec for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion in debt, following the unit’s bankruptcy filing and prolonged tax disputes in Peru.</li>
<li>The sale marks a strategic step in Telefónica’s Hispam exit, following disposals in Argentina and Colombia, and reinforces the company’s focus on core markets with higher returns.</li>
<li>Despite crystallizing a €620 million loss, the transaction removes a distressed asset, improves group visibility, and underscores management’s commitment to financial discipline and geopolitical de-risking across Latin America.</li>
</ul>


Telefónica sold its Peruvian subsidiary to Integra Tec for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion in debt, following the unit’s bankruptcy filing and prolonged tax disputes in Peru.
The sale marks a strategic step in Telefónica’s Hispam exit, following disposals in Argentina and Colombia, and reinforces the company’s focus on core markets with higher returns.
Despite crystallizing a €620 million loss, the transaction removes a distressed asset, improves group visibility, and underscores management’s commitment to financial discipline and geopolitical de-risking across Latin America.


Dropped the Line: Telefónica Disconnects from Peru

<ul>
<li>Telefónica is nearing completion of its Latin American divestment strategy, unlocking capital from low-margin markets and reducing geopolitical risk, with €2.5 billion equity value estimated for remaining Hispam units.</li>
<li>A conservative 4x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to Hispam subsidiaries yields a fair value of €5.06 per share, while a prudent €4.50 target reflects geopolitical and execution risk buffers.</li>
<li>Proceeds from disposals strengthen Telefónica’s balance sheet, support its 7% dividend yield, and enable reinvestment into high-growth segments like Tech and fibercos, enhancing long-term shareholder value and operating efficiency.</li>
</ul>


Telefónica is nearing completion of its Latin American divestment strategy, unlocking capital from low-margin markets and reducing geopolitical risk, with €2.5 billion equity value estimated for remaining Hispam units.
A conservative 4x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to Hispam subsidiaries yields a fair value of €5.06 per share, while a prudent €4.50 target reflects geopolitical and execution risk buffers.
Proceeds from disposals strengthen Telefónica’s balance sheet, support its 7% dividend yield, and enable reinvestment into high-growth segments like Tech and fibercos, enhancing long-term shareholder value and operating efficiency.


Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

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<ul>
<li>Telefónica is actively pursuing asset sales in Latin America and Europe, aiming to streamline operations and reduce net debt. The company anticipates generating approximately €3.27 billion from these transactions.</li>
<li>Assuming minimal tax liabilities due to potential offsets from existing losses, the net proceeds could be applied directly to debt reduction, representing an 11.4% decrease in net debt (2.5x EBITDA).</li>
<li>Telefónica’s dividend remains well covered, with a dividend yield of 7.2% for 2025e, significantly above the 10-year Spanish bond yield (3.2%).</li>
</ul>


Telefónica is actively pursuing asset sales in Latin America and Europe, aiming to streamline operations and reduce net debt. The company anticipates generating approximately €3.27 billion from these transactions.
Assuming minimal tax liabilities due to potential offsets from existing losses, the net proceeds could be applied directly to debt reduction, representing an 11.4% decrease in net debt (2.5x EBITDA).
Telefónica’s dividend remains well covered, with a dividend yield of 7.2% for 2025e, significantly above the 10-year Spanish bond yield (3.2%).


Asset Sales as a Catalyst for Share Price Recovery

Spain

Telefonica S.A. provides telecommunications services mainly to countries in Europe and Latin America.  The Company offers fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet, and data transmission services to residential and corporate customers.

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Telefonica SA (TEF SM)

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Telefónica front-loads FY25 (Hispam exits, 6–7k voluntary ERE) to reset earnings. FY26 margin/FCF uplift likely; Chile optionality. BUY, €6.40 TP;...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Dropped the Line: Telefónica Disconnects from Peru

Telefónica sells Peruvian subsidiary for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion debt, part of strategic exit from Hispam to focus on core...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

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TEF: Front-Load Pain, Bank FY26 Gains

Telefónica front-loads FY25 (Hispam exits, 6–7k voluntary ERE) to reset earnings. FY26 margin/FCF uplift likely; Chile optionality. BUY, €6.40 TP;...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Dropped the Line: Telefónica Disconnects from Peru

​Telefónica sells Peruvian subsidiary for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion debt, part of strategic exit from Hispam to focus on core...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

​Telefónica's Latin American divestment strategy nears completion, unlocking capital, reducing risk, and strengthening balance sheet for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Mar-2025): TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor tactics -DIGITIMES

TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor strategy, Tesla advances AI in electric vehicles and robots, European telecoms focus on AI and discuss...

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Asset Sales as a Catalyst for Share Price Recovery

​Telefónica plans to sell assets in Latin America and Europe to reduce debt by €3.27 billion, potentially lowering net debt by 11.4% and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefónica sells Peruvian subsidiary for €0.9 million, transferring €1.24 billion debt, part of strategic exit from Hispam to focus on core...

Telefónica's Latin American divestment strategy nears completion, unlocking capital, reducing risk, and strengthening balance sheet for...

Telefónica plans to sell assets in Latin America and Europe to reduce debt by €3.27 billion, potentially lowering net debt by 11.4% and...