Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>Vulcan Steel Limited (Vulcan), a pure-play value-added steel distributor and processor, raised around US$273m (A$371m) in its Australia and NZ IPO.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Vulcan operates as a link between steel producers and bulk traders, and end-users. It has a network of 29 operating sites, 16 in Australia and 13 in New Zealand, through which it services over 7,000 customers, as of Jun 21. </p>
</div>
<p>We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vulcan-steel-limited-ipo-past-performance-looks-fine-but-margins-might-be-at-cyclical-highs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vulcan Steel Limited IPO - Past Performance Looks Fine but Margins Might Be at Cyclical Highs</a>.</p>
<p>In this note, we will look at deal dynamics and provide a table for valuation at different share price levels.</p>


Vulcan Steel Limited (Vulcan), a pure-play value-added steel distributor and processor, raised around US$273m (A$371m) in its Australia and NZ IPO.


Vulcan operates as a link between steel producers and bulk traders, and end-users. It has a network of 29 operating sites, 16 in Australia and 13 in New Zealand, through which it services over 7,000 customers, as of Jun 21. 

We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note, Vulcan Steel Limited IPO - Past Performance Looks Fine but Margins Might Be at Cyclical Highs.
In this note, we will look at deal dynamics and provide a table for valuation at different share price levels.

Vulcan Steel Limited IPO Trading - Don't See a Reason for Paying a Premium

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Quantitative Analysis

<p>In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividend. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 150+ and 20+ companies, respectively, that have a high likelihood of raising/cutting dividends, over the next five years.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>What's Original?</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>We have two separate models, one for forecasting Dividend Raise and the other for Dividend Cut.</li>
<li>Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;90% hit rate for our Dividend Raise model and 100% hit rate for our Dividend Cut model.</li>
<li>For our Dividend Raise model, we apply a combination of eight stringent parameters and use last 7Y historical data to find companies that have consistently performed strong, lending our model a high hit rate.</li>
<li>For our Dividend Cut model, we differentiate from other models by focusing on companies that have had high dividend payout ratio (&gt;50%) over last 3Y. This criterion helps us in identifying companies where there is limited scope for dividend growth through increase in dividend payouts. In our observation, such companies are most vulnerable to cut dividend when faced with weakening fundamentals or deteriorating balance sheet.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h3>Insight Flow</h3>
<ul>
<li>Live Dashboard</li>
<li> Methodology
<ul>
<li>Philosophy</li>
<li>Dividend Raise Model</li>
<li>Dividend Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Universe</li>
<li>Back Test Results
<ul>
<li>Dividend Raise Model</li>
<li>Dividend Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Model Results
<ul>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Dividend Raise</li>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Dividend Cut</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Model Risks &amp; Limitations</li>
<li>Conclusion</li>
</ul>

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut dividend. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 150+ and 20+ companies, respectively, that have a high likelihood of raising/cutting dividends, over the next five years.

What's Original?

We have two separate models, one for forecasting Dividend Raise and the other for Dividend Cut.
Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;90% hit rate for our Dividend Raise model and 100% hit rate for our Dividend Cut model.
For our Dividend Raise model, we apply a combination of eight stringent parameters and use last 7Y historical data to find companies that have consistently performed strong, lending our model a high hit rate.
For our Dividend Cut model, we differentiate from other models by focusing on companies that have had high dividend payout ratio (&gt;50%) over last 3Y. This criterion helps us in identifying companies where there is limited scope for dividend growth through increase in dividend payouts. In our observation, such companies are most vulnerable to cut dividend when faced with weakening fundamentals or deteriorating balance sheet.


Insight Flow

Live Dashboard
 Methodology

Philosophy
Dividend Raise Model
Dividend Cut Model


Universe
Back Test Results

Dividend Raise Model
Dividend Cut Model


Model Results

Companies with High Probability of Dividend Raise
Companies with High Probability of Dividend Cut


Model Risks &amp; Limitations
Conclusion


Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Event-Driven

Singapore Telecommunications / Event-Driven

<p>Since the start of February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a>'s share price has declined by about 11%. As per Smartkarma's Holding Companies (HoldCo) monitor, Singtel is trading close at a historically wide discount to NAV and two standard deviations away from the mean.</p><p>In this insight, we will share our SOTP valuation and where we think it should trade at once the volatility subside and coronavirus fears blow over.</p>

Since the start of February, Singtel (ST SP)'s share price has declined by about 11%. As per Smartkarma's Holding Companies (HoldCo) monitor, Singtel is trading close at a historically wide discount to NAV and two standard deviations away from the mean.In this insight, we will share our SOTP valuation and where we think it should trade at once the volatility subside and coronavirus fears blow over.

Singtel HoldCo Trade - A Good Level to Build a Position

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Private Capital Markets

<p>We believe Circles.Life is likely Singapore's newest unicorn thanks to its recent investment from global PE firm Warburg Pincus. We believe the digital telco has already captured over 5% market share in Singapore, is rapidly expanding its presence in Taiwan &amp; Australia, and the company has said that they are now eyeing two new markets to enter by end-2020.</p><p>We believe that Circles.Life's success indicates a broader shift in the telco industry to competing more on customer service &amp; digital experiences - away from the price competition and commoditized offerings, the old business model that traditional incumbents are used to. </p>

We believe Circles.Life is likely Singapore's newest unicorn thanks to its recent investment from global PE firm Warburg Pincus. We believe the digital telco has already captured over 5% market share in Singapore, is rapidly expanding its presence in Taiwan &amp; Australia, and the company has said that they are now eyeing two new markets to enter by end-2020.We believe that Circles.Life's success indicates a broader shift in the telco industry to competing more on customer service &amp; digital experiences - away from the price competition and commoditized offerings, the old business model that traditional incumbents are used to. 

Circles.Life: Singapore Just Created A Stealth Unicorn - Regional Incumbent Telcos Should Worry

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

Singapore Telecommunications / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> recently reported 1QFY20 results. They were not great, with revenues around 1.5% below our estimates as pressure in Singapore and Australia continued. Singtel still aims for mid-single digit revenue growth for the year  but relies on easier comparables in 2H, and a recovery in Australia (yesterday's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telstra-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690:1" rel="noopener">Telstra Corp (TLS AU)</a> FY19 result was pretty mixed and may suggest that a  recovery is longer term).</p><p>Cost savings are also expected to help EBITDA in 2H, with growth of 1% in 1Q20 well below the revised guidance for ‘high single digit’ EBITDA growth, following the adoption of SFRS16.</p><p>FCF guidance was increased, but this relates purely to accounting standard changes. Although trends in Singapore and Australia look weak, the upside to our target price is based predominantly on the regional assets which amount to 65% of total EV. The dividend is predicated on cash upstreaming from the associates which we anticipate to continue. As a result, we expect the stock to be supported at these levels and we maintain a Buy recommendation.</p>

Singtel (ST SP) recently reported 1QFY20 results. They were not great, with revenues around 1.5% below our estimates as pressure in Singapore and Australia continued. Singtel still aims for mid-single digit revenue growth for the year  but relies on easier comparables in 2H, and a recovery in Australia (yesterday's Telstra Corp (TLS AU) FY19 result was pretty mixed and may suggest that a  recovery is longer term).Cost savings are also expected to help EBITDA in 2H, with growth of 1% in 1Q20 well below the revised guidance for ‘high single digit’ EBITDA growth, following the adoption of SFRS16.FCF guidance was increased, but this relates purely to accounting standard changes. Although trends in Singapore and Australia look weak, the upside to our target price is based predominantly on the regional assets which amount to 65% of total EV. The dividend is predicated on cash upstreaming from the associates which we anticipate to continue. As a result, we expect the stock to be supported at these levels and we maintain a Buy recommendation.

Singtel 1Q20 Result Shows Tough Trends but Guidance Retained. Needs a 2H Recovery.

Australia

Telstra Corporation Limited is a full service domestic and international telecommunications provider for Australia.  The Company provides telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, supplying local, long distance and international telephone calls and supplying mobile telecommunications services. Telstra also provides data, internet, on-line services and directory services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Telstra Corp (TLS AU)

Vulcan Steel Limited IPO Trading - Don't See a Reason for Paying a Premium

Vulcan Steel Limited (Vulcan), a pure-play value-added steel distributor and processor, raised around US$273m (A$371m) in its Australia and NZ IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies

Methodology Back Test Results Companied

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Singtel HoldCo Trade - A Good Level to Build a Position

Since the start of February, Singtel (ST SP)'s share price has declined by about 11%. As per Smartkarma's Holding Companies (HoldCo) monitor,...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Circles.Life: Singapore Just Created A Stealth Unicorn - Regional Incumbent Telcos Should Worry

We believe Circles.Life is likely Singapore's newest unicorn thanks to its recent investment from global PE firm Warburg Pincus. We believe the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Singtel 1Q20 Result Shows Tough Trends but Guidance Retained. Needs a 2H Recovery.

Singtel (ST SP) recently reported 1QFY20 results. They were not great, with revenues around 1.5% below our estimates as pressure in Singapore and...

New Street Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)