Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

During this decade, the digital data universe is expected to grow 75-fold from 1.2 zettabytes to 90 zettabytes. (1 zettabyte = 1 trillion gigabytes).Ask any CEO how he expects to sell more products and cut more costs and he will tell you that Big Data features prominently in his strategy. Big Data refers to the technology processes by which companies can profit from the large amounts of data to which they have access.But investors who want to ride the Big Data wave are finding that it is not that easy to identify where to invest.In this report, we delve deep down into the Big Data supply chain and look at where the investment opportunities really lie.&nbsp;

During this decade, the digital data universe is expected to grow 75-fold from 1.2 zettabytes to 90 zettabytes. (1 zettabyte = 1 trillion gigabytes).Ask any CEO how he expects to sell more products and cut more costs and he will tell you that Big Data features prominently in his strategy. Big Data refers to the technology processes by which companies can profit from the large amounts of data to which they have access.But investors who want to ride the Big Data wave are finding that it is not that easy to identify where to invest.In this report, we delve deep down into the Big Data supply chain and look at where the investment opportunities really lie.&nbsp;

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

We wrote previously that the Philppine telcos; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4215" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4215">Philippine Long Distance Tel</a> (PLDT) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1926" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1926">Globe Telecom Inc</a> (Globe) already discounted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/690" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690">Telstra Corp Ltd</a>'s (Telstra) possible entry as a third operator.  We continue to see a number of hurdles before that becomes a reality and our numbers already reflect lower prices. However, we did not foresee the earnings shock from PLDT announced this week that drove the share price down 19% since 29 Feb.PLDT management has become decidedly more cautious on…

We wrote previously that the Philppine telcos; Philippine Long Distance Tel (PLDT) and Globe Telecom Inc (Globe) already discounted Telstra Corp Ltd's (Telstra) possible entry as a third operator.  We continue to see a number of hurdles before that becomes a reality and our numbers already reflect lower prices. However, we did not foresee the earnings shock from PLDT announced this week that drove the share price down 19% since 29 Feb.PLDT management has become decidedly more cautious on…

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/690" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690">Telstra Corp Ltd</a>'s (Telstra) 1H16 report last week showed underlying trends close to forecast although Ebitda was a bit weak. On the positive side, we are seeing mobile margin upswing and rapid growth in NBN payments. Our view is that Telstra can manage long term margin dilution (post NBN payments and migration) and retain LT margins above 30%. Revenue was strong across all key lines, helped by the weak $A. However, the mix favored low margin content and complex services.  Consumer grew through…

Telstra Corp Ltd's (Telstra) 1H16 report last week showed underlying trends close to forecast although Ebitda was a bit weak. On the positive side, we are seeing mobile margin upswing and rapid growth in NBN payments. Our view is that Telstra can manage long term margin dilution (post NBN payments and migration) and retain LT margins above 30%. Revenue was strong across all key lines, helped by the weak $A. However, the mix favored low margin content and complex services.  Consumer grew through…

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/690" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690">Telstra Corp Ltd</a>  (Telstra) reports later this week (Thu 18th Feb) and we expect the company to show decent revenue growth. We believe Telstra is in the early stage of a 3-5 year period of revenue and Ebitda growth in mid-high single digit levels. We expect Telstra to report significant payments from the NBN which is now ahead of target on roll-out and activations. FCF will rise in coming years supporting a rising dividend payment. With a strong domestic business generating growth in free cash flow, Telstra can afford moderate investments in Asia (Philippines).  Whether they will generate a reasonable return is another issue but the size of the investment is not enough to derail the income story.

Telstra Corp Ltd  (Telstra) reports later this week (Thu 18th Feb) and we expect the company to show decent revenue growth. We believe Telstra is in the early stage of a 3-5 year period of revenue and Ebitda growth in mid-high single digit levels. We expect Telstra to report significant payments from the NBN which is now ahead of target on roll-out and activations. FCF will rise in coming years supporting a rising dividend payment. With a strong domestic business generating growth in free cash flow, Telstra can afford moderate investments in Asia (Philippines).  Whether they will generate a reasonable return is another issue but the size of the investment is not enough to derail the income story.

Telstra: Domestic Strength Can Support Moderate Philippine Investment

We believe that PLDT and Globe's share price now fully discounts the risk of new entry. This note looks at the damage new entry could do to the two incumbents. The Philippine market is fundamentally attractive with two operators generating reasonable to high returns and a large unused block of spectrum potentially available to a new venture. The macro picture is also pretty good with minimal linkage to China while smartphone penetration in the Philippines is low and usage even lower. That is a huge unmet opportunity, or at least that is the view seen by Telstra.While the impact of Telstra entering the market is clearly negative, we believe this is now fully discounted. In any case there is a reasonable chance Telstra decides not to proceed. In that case the case to BUY would be even stronger.  A new entrant would lead to lower prices, lower earnings and cash flow and lower valuations but even then we see the two incumbents as being attractive at current prices.

We believe that PLDT and Globe's share price now fully discounts the risk of new entry. This note looks at the damage new entry could do to the two incumbents. The Philippine market is fundamentally attractive with two operators generating reasonable to high returns and a large unused block of spectrum potentially available to a new venture. The macro picture is also pretty good with minimal linkage to China while smartphone penetration in the Philippines is low and usage even lower. That is a huge unmet opportunity, or at least that is the view seen by Telstra.While the impact of Telstra entering the market is clearly negative, we believe this is now fully discounted. In any case there is a reasonable chance Telstra decides not to proceed. In that case the case to BUY would be even stronger.  A new entrant would lead to lower prices, lower earnings and cash flow and lower valuations but even then we see the two incumbents as being attractive at current prices. 

Philippine Telcos: Telstra's Entry Now Fully Discounted?

Australia

Telstra Corporation Limited is a full service domestic and international telecommunications provider for Australia.  The Company provides telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, supplying local, long distance and international telephone calls and supplying mobile telecommunications services. Telstra also provides data, internet, on-line services and directory services.

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Telstra Corp (TLS AU)

Big Data as an Investment Theme

During this decade, the digital data universe is expected to grow 75-fold from 1.2 zettabytes to 90 zettabytes. (1 zettabyte = 1 trillion...

CM Research

PLDT's Earnings Shocker. Guidance Reset.

We wrote previously that the Philppine telcos; Philippine Long Distance Tel (PLDT) and Globe Telecom Inc (Globe) already discounted Telstra Corp...

New Street Research

Telstra: Good Underlying Trends

Telstra Corp Ltd's (Telstra) 1H16 report last week showed underlying trends close to forecast although Ebitda was a bit weak. On the positive side,...

New Street Research

Telstra: Domestic Strength Can Support Moderate Philippine Investment

Telstra Corp Ltd (Telstra) reports later this week (Thu 18th Feb) and we expect the company to show decent revenue growth. We believe Telstra is...

New Street Research

Philippine Telcos: Telstra's Entry Now Fully Discounted?

We believe that PLDT and Globe's share price now fully discounts the risk of new entry. This note looks at the damage new entry could do to the two...

New Street Research

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