Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes averaged more than HK$100bn a day this past week, which gets us back above halfway to the peak earlier this spring. Net flows were negative HK$8bn+.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, financials, utilities, and energy REALLY stand out. Among top sells, industrials, info tech, and consumer discretionary are tops.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes averaged more than HK$100bn a day this past week, which gets us back above halfway to the peak earlier this spring. Net flows were negative HK$8bn+.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, financials, utilities, and energy REALLY stand out. Among top sells, industrials, info tech, and consumer discretionary are tops.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tencent reported 1Q25 financial results: total revenue was up by 13% YoY to RMB180.0bn, 3% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate, thanks to strong growth of games/marketing revenue (+24/20% YoY).</li><li>Non-IFRS net income grew by 22% YoY to RMB61.3bn, 3% ahead of consensus estimate, primarily due to solid top-line performance and better-than-expected GPM expansion (+3.2ppts YoY).</li><li>In view of the sustainable GPM expansion trend on favourable revenue mix shift and improved cost efficiency, we raise FY25-27E non-IFRS earnings forecast by 3-7%, and lift our SOTP-derived target price to HK$660.0 (previous: HK$625.0). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tencent reported 1Q25 financial results: total revenue was up by 13% YoY to RMB180.0bn, 3% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate, thanks to strong growth of games/marketing revenue (+24/20% YoY).Non-IFRS net income grew by 22% YoY to RMB61.3bn, 3% ahead of consensus estimate, primarily due to solid top-line performance and better-than-expected GPM expansion (+3.2ppts YoY).In view of the sustainable GPM expansion trend on favourable revenue mix shift and improved cost efficiency, we raise FY25-27E non-IFRS earnings forecast by 3-7%, and lift our SOTP-derived target price to HK$660.0 (previous: HK$625.0). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent (700 HK) - 1Q25 Results Beat; AI Accelerates Business Growth

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 1Q25, both total revenue and game revenue growth rates accelerated.</li>
<li>The authorities have been turning from containing games to encouraging games.</li>
<li>We expect the stock has an upside of 34% and a price target of HK$700. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q25, both total revenue and game revenue growth rates accelerated.
The authorities have been turning from containing games to encouraging games.
We expect the stock has an upside of 34% and a price target of HK$700. Buy.


Tencent (700 HK): 1Q25, Game Revenue Up by 24% YoY, as Industry Encouraged by Authorities

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.</li>
<li>Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.</li>
<li>Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.</li>
</ul>


Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.
Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.


Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

<ul>
<li>Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. Five weeks into Q2 we are at HK$175bn.</li>
<li>3 weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. last week it was tech. This week it was again tech sold (ETFs bought) suggesting risk-off.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by &gt;HK$100bn. Five weeks into Q2 we are at HK$175bn.
3 weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. last week it was tech. This week it was again tech sold (ETFs bought) suggesting risk-off.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

SOUTHBOUND volumes pick up. Net flows drop into negative territory again for only the second week in a few months. Banks saw strong inflows. Tech...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK) - 1Q25 Results Beat; AI Accelerates Business Growth

We are upbeat on Tencent’s AI development, and expect AI will continue to support the growth of its different business lines. Maintain BUY.

CMB International

Tencent (700 HK): 1Q25, Game Revenue Up by 24% YoY, as Industry Encouraged by Authorities

In 1Q25, both total revenue and game revenue growth rates accelerated. We believe the authorities are turning from containing games to encouraging...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...

John Ley

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

SOUTHBOUND flows still slow. Gross SOUTHBOUND trading is still moving at HK$80-100bn a day which is higher than the last years but half the peaks...

Travis Lundy

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HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

SOUTHBOUND volumes pick up. Net flows drop into negative territory again for only the second week in a few months. Banks saw strong inflows. Tech...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK) - 1Q25 Results Beat; AI Accelerates Business Growth

We are upbeat on Tencent’s AI development, and expect AI will continue to support the growth of its different business lines. Maintain BUY.

CMB International

Tencent (700 HK): 1Q25, Game Revenue Up by 24% YoY, as Industry Encouraged by Authorities

In 1Q25, both total revenue and game revenue growth rates accelerated. We believe the authorities are turning from containing games to encouraging...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

​Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...

John Ley

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

SOUTHBOUND flows still slow. Gross SOUTHBOUND trading is still moving at HK$80-100bn a day which is higher than the last years but half the peaks...

Travis Lundy

Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...