Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng indices announced June 2026 index review changes on Friday. Most changes to indices with significant tracking AUM were as expected. Quiddity correctly predicted 11/11 ex-HSI.</li>
<li>HSI was, as always, a process of dart-throwing. HSI is trying to add stocks to increase count, and by our analysis, needed to add names from Healthcare, Industrials, and Materials. </li>
<li>HSI selected one from each. Among the 6 top indices affected, there is HK$29bn to trade across 200 names, but only 12 with more than one day of ADV.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng indices announced June 2026 index review changes on Friday. Most changes to indices with significant tracking AUM were as expected. Quiddity correctly predicted 11/11 ex-HSI.
HSI was, as always, a process of dart-throwing. HSI is trying to add stocks to increase count, and by our analysis, needed to add names from Healthcare, Industrials, and Materials. 
HSI selected one from each. Among the 6 top indices affected, there is HK$29bn to trade across 200 names, but only 12 with more than one day of ADV.


[Quiddity Index] HSI Rebal Results Almost All As Predicted - HK$29bn One-Way

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd-69366efb-cf6b-404d-a0e4-c6b9b2e128dc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)</a> rallied in US trading after reporting earnings, pointing to a positive read-through for Hong Kong trading on 14 May.</li>
<li>
Highlights: The US-listed moves point to a positive opening impulse for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> in Hong Kong, with potential follow-through into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH </a> futures.</li>
<li>
Why Read: The note links ADR moves, index weights, futures pricing, and Alibaba’s post-earnings implied volatility reset into one short market update.</li>
</ul>



Context:Alibaba (BABA US) and Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) rallied in US trading after reporting earnings, pointing to a positive read-through for Hong Kong trading on 14 May.

Highlights: The US-listed moves point to a positive opening impulse for Alibaba (9988 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) in Hong Kong, with potential follow-through into HSI and HSTECH  futures.

Why Read: The note links ADR moves, index weights, futures pricing, and Alibaba’s post-earnings implied volatility reset into one short market update.


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA), Tencent (700 HK/TCEHY) Rally Overnight; HSI Futures Point to Higher Open

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q26 beat consensus driven by advertising, gaming, and cloud-related AI demand. AI is already lifting monetisation, engagement, and margins across the ecosystem.</li>
<li>Tencent increasingly resembles an integrated “AI operating system” sitting on top of China’s largest social, payments, gaming, and enterprise ecosystem. The market still underestimates this strategic positioning.</li>
<li>Consensus fair value of HKD724/share implies +56% UPSIDE potential from current share price. Risk reward is compelling, and we suggest to ACCUMULATE </li>
</ul>


1Q26 beat consensus driven by advertising, gaming, and cloud-related AI demand. AI is already lifting monetisation, engagement, and margins across the ecosystem.
Tencent increasingly resembles an integrated “AI operating system” sitting on top of China’s largest social, payments, gaming, and enterprise ecosystem. The market still underestimates this strategic positioning.
Consensus fair value of HKD724/share implies +56% UPSIDE potential from current share price. Risk reward is compelling, and we suggest to ACCUMULATE 


Tencent (700 HK) 1Q FY2026 Review: AI Monetisation Is Arriving Faster Than Expected

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The game revenue slowed down, as the lunar new year was late this year.</li>
<li>However, the game business is far from dead according to gross margin, deferred revenue, and operating cash flow.</li>
<li>The difference means an upside of 24% and a price target of HK$572 for year end 2026.</li>
</ul>


The game revenue slowed down, as the lunar new year was late this year.
However, the game business is far from dead according to gross margin, deferred revenue, and operating cash flow.
The difference means an upside of 24% and a price target of HK$572 for year end 2026.


Tencent (700 HK): Game Slowing, But Far from Dead After Close Look at 1Q26 Results

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has been in a downtrend since the end of September 2025. The correction repriced the 2024 rally that tripled the stock's value. A reversal may be underway. 
</li>
<li>
Our model signals a potential upcoming short-term trend reversal, the May 13 Q1 2026 earnings announcement could act as a potential near-term catalyst. Could become a major turning point.</li>
<li>Consensus: bullish. According to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/gaudenz-schneider" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:66501" rel="noopener">Gaudenz Schneider</a> 46 analysts cover the stock with a median price target of HKD 724, implying ~53% upside from current levels, consistent with our LONG signal.
</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) has been in a downtrend since the end of September 2025. The correction repriced the 2024 rally that tripled the stock's value. A reversal may be underway. 


Our model signals a potential upcoming short-term trend reversal, the May 13 Q1 2026 earnings announcement could act as a potential near-term catalyst. Could become a major turning point.
Consensus: bullish. According to Gaudenz Schneider 46 analysts cover the stock with a median price target of HKD 724, implying ~53% upside from current levels, consistent with our LONG signal.



Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is the Selloff Over? Model Signals Reversal Ahead of Earnings

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

[Quiddity Index] HSI Rebal Results Almost All As Predicted - HK$29bn One-Way

The Hang Seng indices announced review results on Friday. The inclusion/exclusion date is 5 June. Capping is finalised three days before. 14...

Travis Lundy

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA), Tencent (700 HK/TCEHY) Rally Overnight; HSI Futures Point to Higher Open

Alibaba and Tencent rallied in US trading after earnings, with HSI and HSTECH futures pointing to a higher Hong Kong open and Alibaba IV resetting...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK) 1Q FY2026 Review: AI Monetisation Is Arriving Faster Than Expected

Tencent's strong performance driven by AI, with potential for 56% upside in share price. Market underestimates strategic positioning as an...

Mo Aziz

Tencent (700 HK): Game Slowing, But Far from Dead After Close Look at 1Q26 Results

The game revenue slowed down, as the lunar new year was late this year. However, the game business is far from dead according to gross margin,...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is the Selloff Over? Model Signals Reversal Ahead of Earnings

Tencent reported earnings on May 13. The projected targets and analysis are currently valid, our model suggests the stock will go higher from here,...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Quiddity Index] HSI Rebal Results Almost All As Predicted - HK$29bn One-Way

The Hang Seng indices announced review results on Friday. The inclusion/exclusion date is 5 June. Capping is finalised three days before. 14...

Travis Lundy

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA), Tencent (700 HK/TCEHY) Rally Overnight; HSI Futures Point to Higher Open

Alibaba and Tencent rallied in US trading after earnings, with HSI and HSTECH futures pointing to a higher Hong Kong open and Alibaba IV resetting...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK) 1Q FY2026 Review: AI Monetisation Is Arriving Faster Than Expected

​Tencent's strong performance driven by AI, with potential for 56% upside in share price. Market underestimates strategic positioning as an...

Mo Aziz

Tencent (700 HK): Game Slowing, But Far from Dead After Close Look at 1Q26 Results

The game revenue slowed down, as the lunar new year was late this year. However, the game business is far from dead according to gross margin,...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is the Selloff Over? Model Signals Reversal Ahead of Earnings

Tencent reported earnings on May 13. The projected targets and analysis are currently valid, our model suggests the stock will go higher from here,...

Nico Rosti

Tencent's strong performance driven by AI, with potential for 56% upside in share price. Market underestimates strategic positioning as an...