Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Policy clarity and domestic GPU shift remove key overhangs; China’s AI build-out proceeding under self-reliance base case.</li>
<li>AI token usage doubling every 3–6 months makes hyperscaler capex upgrades inevitable over the coming quarters - a key catalyst driving order wins.</li>
<li>VNET’s 400 MW annual additions and REIT monetisation support 25–30% EBITDA CAGR per consensus; re-rating to 13-15x EV/ EBITDA from current 11x EV/EBITDA implies potential of 90% upside.</li>
</ul>


Policy clarity and domestic GPU shift remove key overhangs; China’s AI build-out proceeding under self-reliance base case.
AI token usage doubling every 3–6 months makes hyperscaler capex upgrades inevitable over the coming quarters - a key catalyst driving order wins.
VNET’s 400 MW annual additions and REIT monetisation support 25–30% EBITDA CAGR per consensus; re-rating to 13-15x EV/ EBITDA from current 11x EV/EBITDA implies potential of 90% upside.


VNET Group (VNET US) - Re-Rating On: Clarity on Chips, Geopolitics, and Hyperscaler Capex

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Top Ten most active contracts for the week all traded on Monday. Most of the active contracts were Calls with December expiries.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> makes the Top Ten non-Tencent most active contracts with both Puts and Call active – likely stock replacement and hedges following torrid run higher.</li>
<li>Tencent implied vols trading at their lowest levels of the past year.</li>
</ul>


Top Ten most active contracts for the week all traded on Monday. Most of the active contracts were Calls with December expiries.

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) makes the Top Ten non-Tencent most active contracts with both Puts and Call active – likely stock replacement and hedges following torrid run higher.
Tencent implied vols trading at their lowest levels of the past year.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 1 change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>Depending on the stocks included in the universe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> could be deleted and that could lead to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technologie" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)</a>'s inclusion. </li>
<li>If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).</li>
</ul>


There could be 1 change for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
Depending on the stocks included in the universe, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) could be deleted and that could lead to Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)'s inclusion. 
If the add and deletes are as forecast, one-way turnover will be 4.25% and will result in a round-trip trade of HK$25.3bn (US$3.22bn).


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Consistent compounders, stocks with steady earnings growth and excess returns over a long period of time, are difficult to find. It's even more difficult to find reasonably valued compounders.</li>
<li>From the universe of large Asian companies, we screen those with steady profit growth (&gt;10%) and excess returns in each of last 10 years and over next three forecast years.</li>
<li>Our list of 20 inexpensive compounders comprises 10 from onshore China, 5 from HK, 3 from India and 1 each from Japan and the Philippines.</li>
</ul>


Consistent compounders, stocks with steady earnings growth and excess returns over a long period of time, are difficult to find. It's even more difficult to find reasonably valued compounders.
From the universe of large Asian companies, we screen those with steady profit growth (&gt;10%) and excess returns in each of last 10 years and over next three forecast years.
Our list of 20 inexpensive compounders comprises 10 from onshore China, 5 from HK, 3 from India and 1 each from Japan and the Philippines.


Asian Equities: Twenty Inexpensive Consistent Compounders

<ul>
<li>Strong price action across the market this week coupled with implied vols having caught down to historic vols has put a floor on implied vols.</li>
<li>Tencent sees strong call buying in December 410 and 420 Calls with month end 400 strike Put buying for December and January.</li>
<li>Cathay Pacific, +21% over past 3 weeks, HSBC, at 52-week high plus up 38% on the year and BABA, down 21% from Oct 02 high all active names.</li>
</ul>


Strong price action across the market this week coupled with implied vols having caught down to historic vols has put a floor on implied vols.
Tencent sees strong call buying in December 410 and 420 Calls with month end 400 strike Put buying for December and January.
Cathay Pacific, +21% over past 3 weeks, HSBC, at 52-week high plus up 38% on the year and BABA, down 21% from Oct 02 high all active names.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 02 - 06

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

VNET Group (VNET US) - Re-Rating On: Clarity on Chips, Geopolitics, and Hyperscaler Capex

China's AI gains momentum with policy clarity and domestic GPU shift, driving potential 90% upside for VNET with 25-30% EBITDA CAGR as hyperscaler...

Raj S, CA, CFA

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

Top Ten most active contracts traded on Monday, mostly Calls with December expiries. Xiaomi Corp makes most active contracts list with Puts and...

John Ley

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

Leapmotor could be added to the HSTECH in Dec, replacing ASMPT - it's a close call. Impact on the stocks is pretty big. Even with no stock changes,...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equities: Twenty Inexpensive Consistent Compounders

Finding consistent compounders with steady earnings growth and excess returns is challenging, especially those that are reasonably valued. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 02 - 06

Market showing strong price action this week with implied vols stabilizing, Tencent sees call buying, Cathay Pacific, HSBC, and BABA all active...

John Ley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

VNET Group (VNET US) - Re-Rating On: Clarity on Chips, Geopolitics, and Hyperscaler Capex

​China's AI gains momentum with policy clarity and domestic GPU shift, driving potential 90% upside for VNET with 25-30% EBITDA CAGR as hyperscaler...

Raj S, CA, CFA

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

​Top Ten most active contracts traded on Monday, mostly Calls with December expiries. Xiaomi Corp makes most active contracts list with Puts and...

John Ley

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Can Leapmotor Leap into the Index?

Leapmotor could be added to the HSTECH in Dec, replacing ASMPT - it's a close call. Impact on the stocks is pretty big. Even with no stock changes,...

Brian Freitas

Asian Equities: Twenty Inexpensive Consistent Compounders

​Finding consistent compounders with steady earnings growth and excess returns is challenging, especially those that are reasonably valued. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 02 - 06

​Market showing strong price action this week with implied vols stabilizing, Tencent sees call buying, Cathay Pacific, HSBC, and BABA all active...

John Ley

China's AI gains momentum with policy clarity and domestic GPU shift, driving potential 90% upside for VNET with 25-30% EBITDA CAGR as hyperscaler...

Top Ten most active contracts traded on Monday, mostly Calls with December expiries. Xiaomi Corp makes most active contracts list with Puts and...

Finding consistent compounders with steady earnings growth and excess returns is challenging, especially those that are reasonably valued. We...

Market showing strong price action this week with implied vols stabilizing, Tencent sees call buying, Cathay Pacific, HSBC, and BABA all active...