Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> will report earnings on August 12th. This tactical view updates the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-700-hk-tactical-outlook-imminent-pullback-buy-entry-ahead-of-q2-earnings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tencent's analysis presented on July 17th</a> with new support and targets calculated ahead of the earnings.</li>
<li>The Market expectation is framed as solid core operational delivery under margin pressure. Any minimal disappointment could lead to a (continuation of the) sell-off.</li>
<li>At the end of last week our model flagged the stock as overbought. Although a continuation of the rally is possible for a third week or more, it appears unlikely.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) will report earnings on August 12th. This tactical view updates the Tencent's analysis presented on July 17th with new support and targets calculated ahead of the earnings.
The Market expectation is framed as solid core operational delivery under margin pressure. Any minimal disappointment could lead to a (continuation of the) sell-off.
At the end of last week our model flagged the stock as overbought. Although a continuation of the rally is possible for a third week or more, it appears unlikely.


Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Earnings: Possible Sell-Off, Buy the Dip

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved is higher than in 2023 and 2024.</li>
<li>The pace of China game approval is above its pre-tightening level of August 2020 to July 2021.</li>
<li>Of the companies that we are monitoring, none got approval.</li>
</ul>


China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved is higher than in 2023 and 2024.
The pace of China game approval is above its pre-tightening level of August 2020 to July 2021.
Of the companies that we are monitoring, none got approval.


Tencent/Netease: Two Months Without Approvals Despite Second-Highest Count Since 2022

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>will announce H1 2026 results on 12 Aug, with 14 Aug options providing direct exposure to the earnings event.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Historical earnings-day moves have been modest in absolute terms but remain above the current option-implied move, despite realised and implied volatility sitting near the top of their historical ranges.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into Tencent’s earnings-day price history, option-implied move, volatility term structure, and trade implications around straddles and calendar spreads.</li>
</ul>



Context: Tencent (700 HK)will announce H1 2026 results on 12 Aug, with 14 Aug options providing direct exposure to the earnings event.

Highlight: Historical earnings-day moves have been modest in absolute terms but remain above the current option-implied move, despite realised and implied volatility sitting near the top of their historical ranges.

Why Read: Gain insight into Tencent’s earnings-day price history, option-implied move, volatility term structure, and trade implications around straddles and calendar spreads.


Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 12 Aug: Elevated Volatility, Modest Implied Move

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Tencent Holdings (ADR) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>Tencent's dominance is anchored by its Weixin/WeChat super-app, a vast ecosystem integrating social media, gaming, payments, and business services, creating a powerful network effect and high user stickiness.</li>
 <li>Future growth is increasingly reliant on the enterprise segment, particularly FinTech and Cloud/AI services, alongside the international expansion of its world-leading gaming division to offset maturing domestic markets.</li>
 <li>Significant risks persist from the stringent and evolving regulatory landscape in China, which impacts operations from gaming to fintech, and intense domestic competition from tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  Tencent's dominance is anchored by its Weixin/WeChat super-app, a vast ecosystem integrating social media, gaming, payments, and business services, creating a powerful network effect and high user stickiness.
  Future growth is increasingly reliant on the enterprise segment, particularly FinTech and Cloud/AI services, alongside the international expansion of its world-leading gaming division to offset maturing domestic markets.
  Significant risks persist from the stringent and evolving regulatory landscape in China, which impacts operations from gaming to fintech, and intense domestic competition from tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) - Aug 2026

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Offshore relative value: We tested 12-month relative returns across onshore vs. offshore, and both vs. EM. Offshore China is the oversold leg, driven by its own weakness rather than onshore strength. </li>
<li>
AI rotation: The performance gap reflects capital favoring the onshore industrial upgrades vs. offshore consumption. Re-rating requires offshore earnings pickup regardless of how cheap the multiple looks.</li>
<li>
Stock selection:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-china-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22895:1" rel="noopener">MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX)</a> is dominated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> while dispersion across the index is wide. We built an investable bucket.
</li>
</ul>



Offshore relative value: We tested 12-month relative returns across onshore vs. offshore, and both vs. EM. Offshore China is the oversold leg, driven by its own weakness rather than onshore strength. 

AI rotation: The performance gap reflects capital favoring the onshore industrial upgrades vs. offshore consumption. Re-rating requires offshore earnings pickup regardless of how cheap the multiple looks.

Stock selection:MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX) is dominated by Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba (9988 HK) while dispersion across the index is wide. We built an investable bucket.



China Equities: Relative Upside in Offshore Vs. Onshore Stocks

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Tencent (700 HK) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Earnings: Possible Sell-Off, Buy the Dip

Tencent’s (700 HK) Aug 12 earnings are expected to reflect solid core operations despite margin pressure. Sell-off may continue unless results...

Nico Rosti

Tencent/Netease: Two Months Without Approvals Despite Second-Highest Count Since 2022

NPPA released its September 2026 domestic game approval batch. None of the companies we track received approval despite the overall approval count...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 12 Aug: Elevated Volatility, Modest Implied Move

Update: Tencent reports tomorrow evening (HKT), and the new 21 Aug weekly expiry has now listed. The IV term structure has steepened sharply into...

Gaudenz Schneider

Primer: Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) - Aug 2026

Tencent's dominance is anchored by its Weixin/WeChat super-app, a vast ecosystem integrating social media, gaming, payments, and business...

αSK Primers

China Equities: Relative Upside in Offshore Vs. Onshore Stocks

Offshore China is improving relative to onshore China. We anticipate a re-ratings cycle and selected a basket of offshore stocks for active returns.

Damanick Dantes, CMT

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