Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes over US$19+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying OK at just under +US$1bn/day. Significantly, there was huge net buying of ETFs.</li>
<li>Last week's reco <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> was up 4.4% on the week, +3.1% from Monday's close to Friday. +3.9% gain on the H/A pair.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes over US$19+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying OK at just under +US$1bn/day. Significantly, there was huge net buying of ETFs.
Last week's reco Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 4.4% on the week, +3.1% from Monday's close to Friday. +3.9% gain on the H/A pair.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tencent announced 2Q25 financial results: total revenue/non-IFRS operating income grew by 15%/18% YoY to RMB184.5/69.2bn, 3%/4% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate, driven by solid growth across business lines.</li><li>Higher-margin games and marketing businesses continued to maintain strong momentum (+22% and 20% YoY respectively), driving quality growth and further GPM expansion (+3.6ppts YoY).</li><li>We lift our FY25-27E non-IFRS earnings forecast by 1-4% to factor in the stronger-than-expected games &amp; marketing revenue growth and continuous execution of quality growth strategy. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent announced 2Q25 financial results: total revenue/non-IFRS operating income grew by 15%/18% YoY to RMB184.5/69.2bn, 3%/4% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate, driven by solid growth across business lines.Higher-margin games and marketing businesses continued to maintain strong momentum (+22% and 20% YoY respectively), driving quality growth and further GPM expansion (+3.6ppts YoY).We lift our FY25-27E non-IFRS earnings forecast by 1-4% to factor in the stronger-than-expected games &amp; marketing revenue growth and continuous execution of quality growth strategy. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent (700 HK) - 2Q25 Results: Strong Games and Marketing Businesses...

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 2Q25, game revenue increased by 22% YoY and FinTech revenue growth reached two digits.</li>
<li>The operating margin improved to 34.5% in 2Q25 compared to 30.6% in 2Q24.</li>
<li>The 10-year P/E band suggests an upside of 22.5% and a target price of HK$718 for year end 2025.</li>
</ul>


In 2Q25, game revenue increased by 22% YoY and FinTech revenue growth reached two digits.
The operating margin improved to 34.5% in 2Q25 compared to 30.6% in 2Q24.
The 10-year P/E band suggests an upside of 22.5% and a target price of HK$718 for year end 2025.


Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25, Game Revenue Up by 22%, FinTech Back to 2 Digits

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.</li>
</ul>



Context: Tencent (700 HK)is set to release Q2 earnings on 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK time. The stock is in a low-volatility phase, but options traders are watching closely.

Highlight: Option prices imply a post-earnings move near the top of Tencent’s historical range.

Why Read: Gain insight into how historic patterns and option pricing shape risk and opportunity ahead of Tencent’s earnings release.


Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.</li>
<li>The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.</li>
<li>This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.
The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.
This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.


Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk

SOUTHBOUND Connect volumes were quite large again this week at nearly $100bn USD. The big flows on the buy side were in ETFs suggesting allocation...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK) - 2Q25 Results: Strong Games and Marketing Businesses...

Tencent announced 2Q25 financial results: total revenue/non-IFRS operating income grew by 15%/18% YoY to RMB184.5/69.2bn, 3%/4% ahead of Bloomberg...

CMB International

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25, Game Revenue Up by 22%, FinTech Back to 2 Digits

The difference suggests an upside of 22.5% and a target price of HK$718 for year end 2025. The operating margin improved to 34.5% in 2Q25 compared...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Tencent (700 HK) reports tomorrow, Wednesday, 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK. The stock traded sideways over the past four days. Historic move on...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk

SOUTHBOUND Connect volumes were quite large again this week at nearly $100bn USD. The big flows on the buy side were in ETFs suggesting allocation...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK) - 2Q25 Results: Strong Games and Marketing Businesses...

Tencent announced 2Q25 financial results: total revenue/non-IFRS operating income grew by 15%/18% YoY to RMB184.5/69.2bn, 3%/4% ahead of Bloomberg...

CMB International

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q25, Game Revenue Up by 22%, FinTech Back to 2 Digits

The difference suggests an upside of 22.5% and a target price of HK$718 for year end 2025. The operating margin improved to 34.5% in 2Q25 compared...

Ming Lu

Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 13 Aug: Patterns, Pricing, and Possibilities

Tencent (700 HK) reports tomorrow, Wednesday, 13 August 2025, 8:00pm HK. The stock traded sideways over the past four days. Historic move on...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK) - Surging Price, Strikes, and Volatility. A Novel Look with an Animated Chart

​Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent's stock surge has led to a slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. A novel...