Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Highlights: With 20% of all strategies traded being Diagonal or Calendar Spreads, this remains a popular strategy. Directional positioning does not exhibit a bullish or bearish bias.</li>
<li>
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,</li>
</ul>



Context: Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Highlights: With 20% of all strategies traded being Diagonal or Calendar Spreads, this remains a popular strategy. Directional positioning does not exhibit a bullish or bearish bias.

Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,


Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategy Insights from Options Trading

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Of our seven quantitative stock baskets, four have operated for more than three months. We measure the performances of these four - Consistent Compounders, SMID Compounders, Dividend Yielders, Indian Mid-Caps.</li>
<li>Consistent Compounders, though up since inception, has underperformed MXASJ mildly. SMID Compounders has underperformed sharply. Asian Dividend Yielders has outperformed handsomely and Indian Mid-Caps, by a stupendous margin.</li>
<li>We think the Indian mid-cap basket could take a short-term breather. The Dividend Yield basket could outperform, as investors’ preference for yields in uncertain times could continue for now.</li>
</ul>


Of our seven quantitative stock baskets, four have operated for more than three months. We measure the performances of these four - Consistent Compounders, SMID Compounders, Dividend Yielders, Indian Mid-Caps.
Consistent Compounders, though up since inception, has underperformed MXASJ mildly. SMID Compounders has underperformed sharply. Asian Dividend Yielders has outperformed handsomely and Indian Mid-Caps, by a stupendous margin.
We think the Indian mid-cap basket could take a short-term breather. The Dividend Yield basket could outperform, as investors’ preference for yields in uncertain times could continue for now.


Asian Equity: Performance of Our Quant Baskets: Indian MidCaps, Asian Dividend Yields Rule the Roost

<ul>
<li>Onshore Chinese investors’ purchases of HK equity through the Southbound Connect accelerated rapidly after China's September stimulus. Despite net selling in early May, the onshore bullishness seems sustainable for now.</li>
<li>Onshore investors prefer internet platforms (Tencent, Alibaba), technology and consumer discretionaries (Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile), and lately EVs (Li Auto, XPeng). High dividend SOE banks were bought earlier, not recently.</li>
<li>Our "China Twelve" stocks and focus themes closely align with onshore investors' preferences. 6 out of 12 figure in the "top bought" Southbound list - reaffirming our bullishness on them.</li>
</ul>


Onshore Chinese investors’ purchases of HK equity through the Southbound Connect accelerated rapidly after China's September stimulus. Despite net selling in early May, the onshore bullishness seems sustainable for now.
Onshore investors prefer internet platforms (Tencent, Alibaba), technology and consumer discretionaries (Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile), and lately EVs (Li Auto, XPeng). High dividend SOE banks were bought earlier, not recently.
Our "China Twelve" stocks and focus themes closely align with onshore investors' preferences. 6 out of 12 figure in the "top bought" Southbound list - reaffirming our bullishness on them.


Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences

<ul>
<li>The recent spike in Asian currencies is driving foreign institutional flows into Asian equities. Currency appreciation is usually a lead indicator of FII flows, implying that this enthusiasm may continue. </li>
<li>The markets that were sold down the most are attracting the most flows and could continue to do so. India, Taiwan and to a lesser extent, Korea qualify.</li>
<li>Domestic sectors like Chinese internet, restaurant chains, athleisure; Indian private banks, consumer discretionary, hospital chains could gain. So could defensives with high dividend yields, e.g. Korea and Chinese utilities, telecom.</li>
</ul>


The recent spike in Asian currencies is driving foreign institutional flows into Asian equities. Currency appreciation is usually a lead indicator of FII flows, implying that this enthusiasm may continue. 
The markets that were sold down the most are attracting the most flows and could continue to do so. India, Taiwan and to a lesser extent, Korea qualify.
Domestic sectors like Chinese internet, restaurant chains, athleisure; Indian private banks, consumer discretionary, hospital chains could gain. So could defensives with high dividend yields, e.g. Korea and Chinese utilities, telecom.


Asian Equities: Currency Strength Driving FII Flows – Winners and Losers

<ul>
<li>
Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility is currently cheap, trading in its 14th percentile, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> approaches its twelve-months high.</li>
<li>
Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: A pronounced skew smile and a relatively flat term structure make spreads and calendar / diagonal spreads attractive strategies.</li>
<li>
Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity can be found in the monthly May expiry and the Quarterly expiries. The historically low implied volatility facilitates longer term positions.</li>
</ul>



Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility is currently cheap, trading in its 14th percentile, while Tencent (700 HK) approaches its twelve-months high.

Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: A pronounced skew smile and a relatively flat term structure make spreads and calendar / diagonal spreads attractive strategies.

Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity can be found in the monthly May expiry and the Quarterly expiries. The historically low implied volatility facilitates longer term positions.


Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategy Insights from Options Trading

Tencent's multi-leg option trades reveal a diverse range of strategies. Insights on market sentiment and actionable examples provided.

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Equity: Performance of Our Quant Baskets: Indian MidCaps, Asian Dividend Yields Rule the Roost

Our quant basket performance: Consistent Compounders underperforms, SMID Compounders lags, Div Ylds outperform, Indian Mid-Caps excel. The last...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences

In May, net buying of HK-listed stocks cratered to $5.8bn from the previous 3 month’s $20-21bn range. Avg daily turnover dropped to $12bn from the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Currency Strength Driving FII Flows – Winners and Losers

In May, net buying of HK-listed stocks cratered to $5.8bn from the previous 3 month’s $20-21bn range. Avg daily turnover dropped to $12bn from the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure

Tencent is approaching its 12-month high and implied volatility is cheap. The skew smile and flattish term structure make spreads attractive.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategy Insights from Options Trading

​Tencent's multi-leg option trades reveal a diverse range of strategies. Insights on market sentiment and actionable examples provided.

Gaudenz Schneider

Asian Equity: Performance of Our Quant Baskets: Indian MidCaps, Asian Dividend Yields Rule the Roost

​Our quant basket performance: Consistent Compounders underperforms, SMID Compounders lags, Div Ylds outperform, Indian Mid-Caps excel. The last...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Southbound Trades Re-Affirm Our China Preferences

In May, net buying of HK-listed stocks cratered to $5.8bn from the previous 3 month’s $20-21bn range. Avg daily turnover dropped to $12bn from the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Currency Strength Driving FII Flows – Winners and Losers

In May, net buying of HK-listed stocks cratered to $5.8bn from the previous 3 month’s $20-21bn range. Avg daily turnover dropped to $12bn from the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure

Tencent is approaching its 12-month high and implied volatility is cheap. The skew smile and flattish term structure make spreads attractive.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent's multi-leg option trades reveal a diverse range of strategies. Insights on market sentiment and actionable examples provided.

Our quant basket performance: Consistent Compounders underperforms, SMID Compounders lags, Div Ylds outperform, Indian Mid-Caps excel. The last...