Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) demonstrated a strong performance in the second quarter of 2024, anchored by significant growth in its online music services and a robust increase in adjusted net profit.</li><li>The company reported a 28% year-over-year growth in online music services and a 26% increase in adjusted net profit, signaling robust operational health and profitability.</li><li>The addition of over 10 million music subscribers in the first half of 2024, combined with an increase in average revenue per paying user (ARPPU), underscores the company's effective market penetration and pricing strategy.</li></ul>

Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) demonstrated a strong performance in the second quarter of 2024, anchored by significant growth in its online music services and a robust increase in adjusted net profit.The company reported a 28% year-over-year growth in online music services and a 26% increase in adjusted net profit, signaling robust operational health and profitability.The addition of over 10 million music subscribers in the first half of 2024, combined with an increase in average revenue per paying user (ARPPU), underscores the company's effective market penetration and pricing strategy.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group: Innovation In Subscription & User Experience & Other Major Drivers

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>TME announced 2Q24 results on 13 Aug: total revenue declined by 2% YoY to RMB7.16bn, in line with our/Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB7.16/7.13bn; non-IFRS net income was up by 22% YoY to RMB1.87bn, 2/2% ahead of our/consensus estimate.</li><li>For 2H24E, management will focus more on balanced growth of music subs and ARPPU, expecting slower music subscriber net adds but continued QoQ ARPPU growth, which has raised certain investor concerns.</li><li>That said, management reiterated its long-term target (150mn music subscribers &amp; RMB15 in monthly ARPPU). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

TME announced 2Q24 results on 13 Aug: total revenue declined by 2% YoY to RMB7.16bn, in line with our/Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB7.16/7.13bn; non-IFRS net income was up by 22% YoY to RMB1.87bn, 2/2% ahead of our/consensus estimate.For 2H24E, management will focus more on balanced growth of music subs and ARPPU, expecting slower music subscriber net adds but continued QoQ ARPPU growth, which has raised certain investor concerns.That said, management reiterated its long-term target (150mn music subscribers &amp; RMB15 in monthly ARPPU). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TME (TME US) - Focus on Balanced Growth of Music Subs and ARPPU in 2H24E

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pony-ai-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44035:1" rel="noopener">Pony AI (PONY US)</a> raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (2498 HK)</a> raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.</li>
<li>The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.</li>
<li>We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent's advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.</li>
<li>We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.</li>
</ul>


We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.
We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent's advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.
We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.


[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

China

Tencent Music Entertainment operates an online music entertainment platform in China. The Company offers platform that comprises of online music, recording, music-centric live streaming enabling users to discover, listen, sing, watch, perform, and socialize music.

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Tencent Music (TME US)

Tencent Music Entertainment Group: Innovation In Subscription & User Experience & Other Major Drivers

Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) demonstrated a strong performance in the second quarter of 2024, anchored by significant growth in its online...

Baptista Research

TME (TME US) - Focus on Balanced Growth of Music Subs and ARPPU in 2H24E

TME announced 2Q24 results on 13 Aug: total revenue declined by 2% YoY to RMB7.16bn, in line with our/Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB7.16/7.13bn

CMB International

Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

Tencent's Q3 results are expected to exceed consensus, with increased estimates for international game growth and advertising business benefiting...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tencent Music Entertainment Group: Innovation In Subscription & User Experience & Other Major Drivers

Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) demonstrated a strong performance in the second quarter of 2024, anchored by significant growth in its online...

Baptista Research

TME (TME US) - Focus on Balanced Growth of Music Subs and ARPPU in 2H24E

TME announced 2Q24 results on 13 Aug: total revenue declined by 2% YoY to RMB7.16bn, in line with our/Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB7.16/7.13bn

CMB International

Pony AI IPO Lockup - US$4.3bn Lockup Release with Stock at 69x EV/Sales

Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$260m in its upsized US ADR listing in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

​Tencent's Q3 results are expected to exceed consensus, with increased estimates for international game growth and advertising business benefiting...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent's Q3 results are expected to exceed consensus, with increased estimates for international game growth and advertising business benefiting...