Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.</li>
<li>However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. </li>
<li>The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.
However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. 
The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.


What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Robotphoenix Intelligent Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Robotphoenix Intelligent Technology (6871 HK)

<ul>
<li>To raise HK$679.2m of net proceeds, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robotphoenix-intelligent-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48807:1" rel="noopener">Robotphoenix Intelligent Technology (6871 HK)</a>'s IPO is small. But this dedicated industrial robotics company is worth a bet.</li>
<li>Although losses have been increasing for FY23-25, with a 3-year forward revenue CAGR of 35.2%, they should peak in FY27 and start to reduce in FY28.</li>
<li>We calculate a fair P/S of 13.7-15.5x for FY26, translating into a price of HK$34.3-38.6, or 12.5-26.5% upside from the IPO price. </li>
</ul>


To raise HK$679.2m of net proceeds, Robotphoenix Intelligent Technology (6871 HK)'s IPO is small. But this dedicated industrial robotics company is worth a bet.
Although losses have been increasing for FY23-25, with a 3-year forward revenue CAGR of 35.2%, they should peak in FY27 and start to reduce in FY28.
We calculate a fair P/S of 13.7-15.5x for FY26, translating into a price of HK$34.3-38.6, or 12.5-26.5% upside from the IPO price. 


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Teradyne reported a record first-quarter 2026 with revenue reaching approximately $1.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.56, surpassing previous highs set during the mobile peak of 2021.</li><li>The company attributed this growth primarily to robust demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI) across its portfolio, which includes Semiconductor Test, Product Test, and Robotics segments.</li><li>AI-related demand constituted nearly 70% of revenue for the quarter, up from 60% in late 2025, reflecting Teradyne’s strategic focus on the expanding AI ecosystem, including verticalization, electrification, and AI-driven growth waves.</li></ul>

Teradyne reported a record first-quarter 2026 with revenue reaching approximately $1.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.56, surpassing previous highs set during the mobile peak of 2021.The company attributed this growth primarily to robust demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI) across its portfolio, which includes Semiconductor Test, Product Test, and Robotics segments.AI-related demand constituted nearly 70% of revenue for the quarter, up from 60% in late 2025, reflecting Teradyne’s strategic focus on the expanding AI ecosystem, including verticalization, electrification, and AI-driven growth waves.

Teradyne’s GPU Testing Push Is Accelerating Fast—Can It Capture the AI Semiconductor Boom?

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>One active M&amp;A deal could trigger an intra-review ADD. Shareholders have already approved the deal.</li>
<li>We expect three changes and around US$5bn one-way flow for Nasdaq 100 in the June index rebal event and another $2bn in one-way flows on the intra-review change.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.
One active M&amp;A deal could trigger an intra-review ADD. Shareholders have already approved the deal.
We expect three changes and around US$5bn one-way flow for Nasdaq 100 in the June index rebal event and another $2bn in one-way flows on the intra-review change.


Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Jun26 Rebal: Three Regular ADDs/DELs; US$7bn in One-Way Flows

<ul><li>Teradyne, Inc.'s recent earnings announcement for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 showcased a significant performance improvement driven largely by AI-related demand across various sectors.</li><li>The company experienced a notable 41% sequential revenue growth in Q4 with over 100% growth in non-GAAP earnings, outpacing their high-end guidance expectations.</li><li>Teradyne's strong results were primarily attributed to double-digit growth in Semiconductor Test, Product Test, and Robotics segments, with AI applications accounting for more than 60% of revenue in Q4.</li></ul>

Teradyne, Inc.'s recent earnings announcement for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 showcased a significant performance improvement driven largely by AI-related demand across various sectors.The company experienced a notable 41% sequential revenue growth in Q4 with over 100% growth in non-GAAP earnings, outpacing their high-end guidance expectations.Teradyne's strong results were primarily attributed to double-digit growth in Semiconductor Test, Product Test, and Robotics segments, with AI applications accounting for more than 60% of revenue in Q4.

Teradyne: How EVs, Automation, and IoT Are Expanding Its Testing Footprint!

United States

Teradyne, Inc. designs, manufactures, sells, and supports semiconductor test products and services on a world wide basis. The Company's test equipment products and services include: semiconductor test systems, military/aerospace test instrumentation and systems, circuit-board test and inspection systems and automotive diagnostic and test systems.

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Teradyne Inc (TER US)

What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

Robotphoenix (6871) IPO: Worth a Bet

Robotphoenix's small IPO aims to raise HK$679.2m, but with a promising future in industrial robotics and a leadership position in the industry, it...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Teradyne’s GPU Testing Push Is Accelerating Fast—Can It Capture the AI Semiconductor Boom?

Teradyne reported a record first-quarter 2026 with revenue reaching approximately $1.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.56,...

Baptista Research

Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Jun26 Rebal: Three Regular ADDs/DELs; US$7bn in One-Way Flows

Three expected changes in the June 2026 Nasdaq 100 rebalance, an active M&A deal in play, and a SpaceX inclusion expected by late July.

Anjana Amarasuriya

Teradyne: How EVs, Automation, and IoT Are Expanding Its Testing Footprint!

Teradyne, Inc.'s recent earnings announcement for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 showcased a significant performance improvement driven...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

Robotphoenix (6871) IPO: Worth a Bet

​Robotphoenix's small IPO aims to raise HK$679.2m, but with a promising future in industrial robotics and a leadership position in the industry, it...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Teradyne’s GPU Testing Push Is Accelerating Fast—Can It Capture the AI Semiconductor Boom?

Teradyne reported a record first-quarter 2026 with revenue reaching approximately $1.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.56,...

Baptista Research

Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Jun26 Rebal: Three Regular ADDs/DELs; US$7bn in One-Way Flows

Three expected changes in the June 2026 Nasdaq 100 rebalance, an active M&A deal in play, and a SpaceX inclusion expected by late July.

Anjana Amarasuriya

Teradyne: How EVs, Automation, and IoT Are Expanding Its Testing Footprint!

Teradyne, Inc.'s recent earnings announcement for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 showcased a significant performance improvement driven...

Baptista Research

Robotphoenix's small IPO aims to raise HK$679.2m, but with a promising future in industrial robotics and a leadership position in the industry, it...