Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.</p></li><li><p>Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.</p></li><li>Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.</li></ul>

This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AI silicon changed what "test" is for. Larger die and stacked packages mean a late failure destroys more value, so test now decides whether parts ship.</li>
<li>Chroma's revenue doubled while gross margin fell, the signature of customers buying larger systems with more bought in content rather than more of the same instrument.</li>
<li>The whole test group is priced for a multi year cycle, not a good quarter: Advantest trades at 77.0x next year's consensus and Chroma at 44.7x.</li>
</ul>


AI silicon changed what "test" is for. Larger die and stacked packages mean a late failure destroys more value, so test now decides whether parts ship.
Chroma's revenue doubled while gross margin fell, the signature of customers buying larger systems with more bought in content rather than more of the same instrument.
The whole test group is priced for a multi year cycle, not a good quarter: Advantest trades at 77.0x next year's consensus and Chroma at 44.7x.


TechChain Insights Q&A: AI Chips Cannot Ship Until Chroma's Machines Pass Them

<ul><li>A partial earnings recap of companies so far this week: grouped by categories</li><li>Simo and Maxlinear are going to be in a separate note.</li><li>It’s too funny and interesting not to, but that will hopefully come out soon. It’s been quite a week of content.</li></ul>

A partial earnings recap of companies so far this week: grouped by categoriesSimo and Maxlinear are going to be in a separate note.It’s too funny and interesting not to, but that will hopefully come out soon. It’s been quite a week of content.

Auto Semiconductor Earnings, Testing, Semicap

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul><li>Short covering dominated the week of July 20.</li><li>Korea-linked ETFs saw dramatic SI drops, while biotech and borrow markets told a more bearish story.</li><li>A handful of names bucked the trend - shorts added exposure in clinical-stage biotech and niche fixed income plays.</li></ul>

Short covering dominated the week of July 20.Korea-linked ETFs saw dramatic SI drops, while biotech and borrow markets told a more bearish story.A handful of names bucked the trend - shorts added exposure in clinical-stage biotech and niche fixed income plays.

Korea, Biotech Lead a Mixed Week for Short Sellers

United States

Teradyne, Inc. designs, manufactures, sells, and supports semiconductor test products and services on a world wide basis. The Company's test equipment products and services include: semiconductor test systems, military/aerospace test instrumentation and systems, circuit-board test and inspection systems and automotive diagnostic and test systems.

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Teradyne Inc (TER US)

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Earnings Week of April 26th

TXN, NOD, TER, INTC, MXL, ASM, STM, ON, KLA, LRCX, VRT, Aixtron, MXL. This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual....

Fabricated Knowledge

TechChain Insights Q&A: AI Chips Cannot Ship Until Chroma's Machines Pass Them

Semiconductor testing is the step where a finished chip is run under power to find the defects that would otherwise reach a customer. With AI...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Auto Semiconductor Earnings, Testing, Semicap

A partial earnings recap of companies so far this week: grouped by categories Simo and Maxlinear are going to be in a separate note. It’s too...

Fabricated Knowledge

Korea, Biotech Lead a Mixed Week for Short Sellers

Short covering dominated the week of July 20. Korea-linked ETFs saw dramatic SI drops, while biotech and borrow markets told a more bearish...

ORTEX Market Intel

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