Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

Summary: 
<ul>
<li>
TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.</li>
<li>
LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.</li>
<li>
MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.</li>
<li>
SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.</li>
<li>
TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.</li>
<li>
BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.</li>
</ul>

Summary: 


TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.

LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.

MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.

SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.

TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.

BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.


Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple's iPhone 16 Pro &amp; Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition</li>
<li>Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip</li>
<li>TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long... TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators</li>
</ul>


Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple's iPhone 16 Pro &amp; Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition
Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip
TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long... TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators


Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung's Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge</li>
<li>The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend</li>
<li>When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge
The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend
When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC - ADR</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> are the largest sells with buying spread across <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv-b0092428-e3ec-4a92-bdd6-2f6eff7f1879" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28204:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding NV</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology</a>.</li>
<li>The selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> will add to the selling from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> due to the market consultation.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

TSMC - ADR and NVIDIA are the largest sells with buying spread across ASML Holding NV, Qualcomm Inc, Applied Materials and Micron Technology.
The selling in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will add to the selling from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) due to the market consultation.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn

<ul>
<li>Japan's Meteorological Agency has issued a warning of an upcoming serious 8-9-point earthquake</li>
<li>The expected epicenter is home to at least one dozen semiconductor wafer fabrication plants: "Fabs"</li>
<li>While it's hard to predict earthquakes, this news should be considered when investing in the area.</li>
</ul>


Japan's Meteorological Agency has issued a warning of an upcoming serious 8-9-point earthquake
The expected epicenter is home to at least one dozen semiconductor wafer fabrication plants: "Fabs"
While it's hard to predict earthquakes, this news should be considered when investing in the area.


United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung's Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

Apple's iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max sales surging in China, Samsung faces challenges from multiple fronts as TSMC tightens grip in foundry, TSMC gives...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn

No constituent changes but a lot of capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.04bn. The selling in...

Brian Freitas

Could a Japan "Megaquake" Disrupt Semis?

Japan's Meteorological Agency predicted that a catastrophic earthquake is now many times more likely than before. This insight examines what that...

Jim Handy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung's Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

​Apple's iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max sales surging in China, Samsung faces challenges from multiple fronts as TSMC tightens grip in foundry, TSMC gives...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

​The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2bn

No constituent changes but a lot of capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.04bn. The selling in...

Brian Freitas

Could a Japan "Megaquake" Disrupt Semis?

Japan's Meteorological Agency predicted that a catastrophic earthquake is now many times more likely than before. This insight examines what that...

Jim Handy

Apple's iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max sales surging in China, Samsung faces challenges from multiple fronts as TSMC tightens grip in foundry, TSMC gives...

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.