Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.</li>
<li>End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. </li>
<li>Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.
End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. 
Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.


Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Texas Instruments reported its third quarter 2024 results, evidencing a mixed financial landscape amid varying market conditions.</li><li>Revenue stood at $4.2 billion, reflecting a 9% sequential rise but an 8% decline year-over-year.</li><li>This revenue performance was underpinned by the company's significant presence in Analog revenue, which experienced a decline of 4% year-over-year, while Embedded Processing saw a more pronounced decrement of 27%.</li></ul>

Texas Instruments reported its third quarter 2024 results, evidencing a mixed financial landscape amid varying market conditions.Revenue stood at $4.2 billion, reflecting a 9% sequential rise but an 8% decline year-over-year.This revenue performance was underpinned by the company's significant presence in Analog revenue, which experienced a decline of 4% year-over-year, while Embedded Processing saw a more pronounced decrement of 27%.

Texas Instruments Incorporated: Will The Industrial and Automotive Market Recovery Save The Day? - Major Drivers

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Summary: 
<ul>
<li>
TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.</li>
<li>
LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.</li>
<li>
MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.</li>
<li>
SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.</li>
<li>
TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.</li>
<li>
BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.</li>
</ul>

Summary: 


TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.

LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.

MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.

SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.

TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.

BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.


Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple's iPhone 16 Pro &amp; Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition</li>
<li>Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip</li>
<li>TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long... TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators</li>
</ul>


Hua-Where? Hua-Who? Report: Apple's iPhone 16 Pro &amp; Pro Max Sales Surge 44% in China; A Strong Start Amidst Competition
Samsung Under Siege: Facing Major Challenges Across Verticals as TSMC Tightens Foundry Grip
TSMC 3Q24: Guidance Remains Strong; Explains Why AI Demand Not Overhyped; Stay Long... TSMC is Working with All AI Innovators


Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung's Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge</li>
<li>The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend</li>
<li>When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge
The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend
When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon


United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

Texas Instruments Incorporated: Will The Industrial and Automotive Market Recovery Save The Day? - Major Drivers

Texas Instruments reported its third quarter 2024 results, evidencing a mixed financial landscape amid varying market conditions. Revenue stood at...

Baptista Research

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung's Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

Apple's iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max sales surging in China, Samsung faces challenges from multiple fronts as TSMC tightens grip in foundry, TSMC gives...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

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Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

​Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

Texas Instruments Incorporated: Will The Industrial and Automotive Market Recovery Save The Day? - Major Drivers

Texas Instruments reported its third quarter 2024 results, evidencing a mixed financial landscape amid varying market conditions. Revenue stood at...

Baptista Research

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: IPhone 16 Sales Surge in China; Samsung's Strength Diluted Against TSMC’s Focus

​Apple's iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max sales surging in China, Samsung faces challenges from multiple fronts as TSMC tightens grip in foundry, TSMC gives...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Current Semi Surge Still Strong

​The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.

Jim Handy

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Apple's iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max sales surging in China, Samsung faces challenges from multiple fronts as TSMC tightens grip in foundry, TSMC gives...

The semiconductor market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI, but history suggests a potential collapse may be on the horizon.