Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.</li>
<li>Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.</li>
<li>I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.</li>
</ul>


This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.
Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.
I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.


Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Texas Instruments had a mixed Q2, reporting revenue of $3.8 billion, a 4% sequential increase but 16% YoY decline.</li><li>This contrasted with their optimistic revenue predictions for Q3, forecasting in the range of $3.94 billion to $4.26 billion.</li><li>This could have been due to the decline in Analog revenue by 11% YoY, Embedded Processing by 31%, and its Other segment by 22% from YoY quarter.</li></ul>

The Texas Instruments had a mixed Q2, reporting revenue of $3.8 billion, a 4% sequential increase but 16% YoY decline.This contrasted with their optimistic revenue predictions for Q3, forecasting in the range of $3.94 billion to $4.26 billion.This could have been due to the decline in Analog revenue by 11% YoY, Embedded Processing by 31%, and its Other segment by 22% from YoY quarter.

Texas Instruments: Is Its China Revival Here To Stay? - Major Drivers

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector</li>
<li>Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies</li>
<li>We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector
Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies
We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing </li>
<li>UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance
TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing 
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place. Let’s start with Automotive, which is my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Texas Instruments: Is Its China Revival Here To Stay? - Major Drivers

The Texas Instruments had a mixed Q2, reporting revenue of $3.8 billion, a 4% sequential increase but 16% YoY decline. This contrasted with their...

Baptista Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

New Vietnam investments by Hon Hai and Wistron, Elan preparing for significant AI PC uptake in 4Q24/1H25, UMC's outlook increasingly optimistic for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place. Let’s start with Automotive, which is my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Texas Instruments: Is Its China Revival Here To Stay? - Major Drivers

The Texas Instruments had a mixed Q2, reporting revenue of $3.8 billion, a 4% sequential increase but 16% YoY decline. This contrasted with their...

Baptista Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

​Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

New Vietnam investments by Hon Hai and Wistron, Elan preparing for significant AI PC uptake in 4Q24/1H25, UMC's outlook increasingly optimistic for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...