Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Texas Instruments demonstrated a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching $4.7 billion, marking a 7% increase sequentially and a 14% increase year-over-year.</li><li>Key segments such as Analog and Embedded Processing exhibited solid growth, with year-over-year increases of 16% and 9%, respectively.</li><li>The company's industrial and automotive markets showed notable increases, with industrial revenue growing 25% year-on-year.</li></ul>

Texas Instruments demonstrated a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching $4.7 billion, marking a 7% increase sequentially and a 14% increase year-over-year.Key segments such as Analog and Embedded Processing exhibited solid growth, with year-over-year increases of 16% and 9%, respectively.The company's industrial and automotive markets showed notable increases, with industrial revenue growing 25% year-on-year.

Texas Instruments Has A MAJOR Tech Upgrade: New Fabs, Bigger Profits Ahead!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>The demand &amp; inventory correction lasted for 9 quarters (4Q22-4Q24) but we’re already past peak recovery in 4Q25. 2-3Q25 revenue growth was ~15% YoY, declining to 10% in 4Q. </li>
<li>4Q guidance: revenues ok, weak EPS 1) higher tax rate 2) lower production loading. While management says that inventories are at a good level, TXN is cutting down production levels.</li>
<li>Consensus is ~10% too high for 2026 &amp; 27, Valuations not attractive, above average.</li>
</ul>


The demand &amp; inventory correction lasted for 9 quarters (4Q22-4Q24) but we’re already past peak recovery in 4Q25. 2-3Q25 revenue growth was ~15% YoY, declining to 10% in 4Q. 
4Q guidance: revenues ok, weak EPS 1) higher tax rate 2) lower production loading. While management says that inventories are at a good level, TXN is cutting down production levels.
Consensus is ~10% too high for 2026 &amp; 27, Valuations not attractive, above average.


TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control</li>
<li>We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)</li>
<li>We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control
We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)
We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS


Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We highlight a growing divergence within the analog semiconductor space.</li><li>The power management IC (PMIC) and signal chain markets are stabilizing after a severe downturn, entering a cyclical recovery phase.</li><li>In contrast, the mobile radio frequency front-end (RFFE) market remains under pressure, while automotive RFFE emerges as a key strategic growth frontier.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We highlight a growing divergence within the analog semiconductor space.The power management IC (PMIC) and signal chain markets are stabilizing after a severe downturn, entering a cyclical recovery phase.In contrast, the mobile radio frequency front-end (RFFE) market remains under pressure, while automotive RFFE emerges as a key strategic growth frontier.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Analog sector – PMIC recovery underway; RF in transition

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The SET Index today is expected to rebound within a limited range, with the resistance at 1,270/1,280 points and the support at 1,252/1,239 points (200-day EMA).</li><li>External factors are slightly negative after the US July PPI rose more than expected, dampening hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 bps at its mid-September meeting, though there may be a positive surprise from tonight’s meeting between the US and Ukraine if Ukraine agrees to Russia’s proposal, contrary to market expectations.</li><li>Domestic factors are slightly positive, supported by: i) better-than-expected 2Q25 earnings from Thai listed companies (+8.6%), with 1H25 earnings accounting for 57.5% of full-year estimates, which could lead to upward earnings and target revisions, and ii) the House of Representatives passing the 2026 fiscal budget bill last Friday, while the NESDC signaled a more positive outlook for the second half of the year compared to earlier concerns over US tariff hikes, adding upside to 2025E GDP growth and reducing the risk of contraction if Prime Minister Paetongtarn is found guilty by the court and a new prime minister must be selected on August 29.</li></ul>

The SET Index today is expected to rebound within a limited range, with the resistance at 1,270/1,280 points and the support at 1,252/1,239 points (200-day EMA).External factors are slightly negative after the US July PPI rose more than expected, dampening hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 bps at its mid-September meeting, though there may be a positive surprise from tonight’s meeting between the US and Ukraine if Ukraine agrees to Russia’s proposal, contrary to market expectations.Domestic factors are slightly positive, supported by: i) better-than-expected 2Q25 earnings from Thai listed companies (+8.6%), with 1H25 earnings accounting for 57.5% of full-year estimates, which could lead to upward earnings and target revisions, and ii) the House of Representatives passing the 2026 fiscal budget bill last Friday, while the NESDC signaled a more positive outlook for the second half of the year compared to earlier concerns over US tariff hikes, adding upside to 2025E GDP growth and reducing the risk of contraction if Prime Minister Paetongtarn is found guilty by the court and a new prime minister must be selected on August 29.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 18, 2025

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Texas Instruments Has A MAJOR Tech Upgrade: New Fabs, Bigger Profits Ahead!

Texas Instruments demonstrated a robust financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching $4.7 billion, marking a 7%...

Baptista Research

TXN 3Q25: Peak Revenue Growth (Recovery) Is Behind Us, Consensus Too High, Stock a Bit Expensive.

decline in revenue growth in 4Q25, weak EPS guidance for 4Q. TXN cutting production levels despite management stating inventories are good....

Nicolas Baratte

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Buy $SPX and $QQQ Pullbacks to 20-Day MA. Semiconductor buy ideas on pullbacks (remain overweight)...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors - Analog sector – PMIC recovery underway; RF in transition

The power management IC (PMIC) and signal chain markets are stabilizing after a severe downturn, entering a cyclical recovery phase.

CMB International

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. August 18, 2025

The SET Index today is expected to rebound within a limited range, with the resistance at 1,270/1,280 points and the support at 1,252/1,239 points...

Krungthai XSpring

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