Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility</li>
<li>But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months</li>
<li>USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument</li>
</ul>


US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility
But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months
USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument


Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.</li>
<li>Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.</li>
<li>If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.</li>
</ul>


China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.
Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.
If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.


Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest impact passive sell. </li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell. 
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> – 2025 Full-Year and 4Q Outlook.   </li>
<li>The impact of U.S. recent restrictions on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> appears negligible.</li>
<li>Customer demand trends are diverging in 2H25, and overall demand is expected to soften in 4Q25.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) – 2025 Full-Year and 4Q Outlook.   
The impact of U.S. recent restrictions on United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) appears negligible.
Customer demand trends are diverging in 2H25, and overall demand is expected to soften in 4Q25.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TI is experiencing 50%+ YoY growth in data center, showing no signs of AI server demand slowdown.</li>
<li>KLA calls 2nm a “compelling” node, projecting it could be the industry’s largest over first three years.</li>
<li>Taiwan Tech positioned to benefit via TSMC N2 ramp, CoWoS packaging, and ABF substrate expansion.</li>
</ul>


TI is experiencing 50%+ YoY growth in data center, showing no signs of AI server demand slowdown.
KLA calls 2nm a “compelling” node, projecting it could be the industry’s largest over first three years.
Taiwan Tech positioned to benefit via TSMC N2 ramp, CoWoS packaging, and ABF substrate expansion.


Texas Instruments & KLA Signal Continued AI Strength, Foreshadow TSMC’s 2nm Breakout

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) outlook for 2025 remains steady despite U.S. restrictions, with softening demand expected in 4Q25.

Patrick Liao

Texas Instruments & KLA Signal Continued AI Strength, Foreshadow TSMC’s 2nm Breakout

TI's data center growth remains strong with 50% YoY growth, KLA sees potential in 2nm node to be the largest ever, Taiwan Tech set to benefit from...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

​USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

​China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

​United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) outlook for 2025 remains steady despite U.S. restrictions, with softening demand expected in 4Q25.

Patrick Liao

Texas Instruments & KLA Signal Continued AI Strength, Foreshadow TSMC’s 2nm Breakout

​TI's data center growth remains strong with 50% YoY growth, KLA sees potential in 2nm node to be the largest ever, Taiwan Tech set to benefit from...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) outlook for 2025 remains steady despite U.S. restrictions, with softening demand expected in 4Q25.

TI's data center growth remains strong with 50% YoY growth, KLA sees potential in 2nm node to be the largest ever, Taiwan Tech set to benefit from...