Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025</li>
<li>Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.</li>
<li>The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. </li>
</ul>


A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025
Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.
The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. 


Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist...

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We assume that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. </li>
</ul>


We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Revenues are still declining by ~teens% YoY but margins shows signs of improvements as end-demand improves and utilization is low. </li>
<li>Renesas doesn’t have an inventory problem and increasing revenues will lead to higher utilization and higher margins. </li>
<li>As Renesas is showing signs of a bottom, the stock is very cheap, trading at -2 standard deviations or 11x 2025 EPS, 9x 2026 EPS.</li>
</ul>


Revenues are still declining by ~teens% YoY but margins shows signs of improvements as end-demand improves and utilization is low. 
Renesas doesn’t have an inventory problem and increasing revenues will lead to higher utilization and higher margins. 
As Renesas is showing signs of a bottom, the stock is very cheap, trading at -2 standard deviations or 11x 2025 EPS, 9x 2026 EPS.


Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging. </li>
<li>
AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds. </li>
<li>
Faraday and UMC results ahead this week -- Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.</li>
</ul>



TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging. 

AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds. 

Faraday and UMC results ahead this week -- Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.</li>
<li>The selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> will be amplified by selling from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US)</a> ETFs. </li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.
The selling in Broadcom and NVIDIA will be amplified by selling from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US) ETFs. 


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist...

The submissions on proposed semiconductor tariffs were universally negative with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat...

William Keating

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out

Despite declining revenues, Renesas is showing signs of margins improvement due to increased end-demand and low utilization, making the stock a...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data

TSMC's Arizona fab achieves Taiwan-level yields, reinforcing global leadership in N2 and advanced packaging, while AI demand offsets smartphone...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 4.5% and a round-trip trade of US$2.2bn. Broadcom and Nvidia will also have...

Brian Freitas

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Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist...

The submissions on proposed semiconductor tariffs were universally negative with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat...

William Keating

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out

​Despite declining revenues, Renesas is showing signs of margins improvement due to increased end-demand and low utilization, making the stock a...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data

​TSMC's Arizona fab achieves Taiwan-level yields, reinforcing global leadership in N2 and advanced packaging, while AI demand offsets smartphone...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 4.5% and a round-trip trade of US$2.2bn. Broadcom and Nvidia will also have...

Brian Freitas

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Despite declining revenues, Renesas is showing signs of margins improvement due to increased end-demand and low utilization, making the stock a...

TSMC's Arizona fab achieves Taiwan-level yields, reinforcing global leadership in N2 and advanced packaging, while AI demand offsets smartphone...