Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Thai Airways International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 30 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a>'s stock price has doubled this year, and the stock will be capped back to 10% of the index weight in June. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.1-3.7% of float in the adds with the largest impacts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-diy-holding-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43926:1" rel="noopener">Mr. DIY Holding (Thailand)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-airways-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18317:1" rel="noopener">Thai Airways International (THAI TB)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)'s stock price has doubled this year, and the stock will be capped back to 10% of the index weight in June. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.1-3.7% of float in the adds with the largest impacts in Mr. DIY Holding (Thailand) and Thai Airways International (THAI TB). 


SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes in June; DELTA Capping Too

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data</li>
<li>Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)</li>
<li>As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture</li>
</ul>


Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data
Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)
As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture


August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>There have been some changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.</li>
<li>The reference period for the June 2026 index rebal event is about to end soon. The expected ADDs/DELs presented in this insight are our final expectations.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
There have been some changes to our expected ADDs/DELs list since our last insight.
The reference period for the June 2026 index rebal event is about to end soon. The expected ADDs/DELs presented in this insight are our final expectations.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun26: Final Expectations; 3 ADDs/DELs and Delta Capping

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Thai Airways International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Although 1Q26 core profit beat our estimate due to lower-thanexpected staff expenses, we expect 2Q26E performance to remain fairly volatile following the increase in jet fuel prices during March–April, before starting to decline in May as the Middle East situation improved.</li><li>We maintain our “Buy” rating and 12M FV of Bt6.80, based on EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, supported by 14% upside and stronger long-term earnings growth than peers. Meanwhile, tactical upside risk remains limited.</li><li>In addition, investors should continue to monitor the remaining 75% of debt-to-equity conversion shares, which will become eligible for trading again in August 2026.</li></ul>

Although 1Q26 core profit beat our estimate due to lower-thanexpected staff expenses, we expect 2Q26E performance to remain fairly volatile following the increase in jet fuel prices during March–April, before starting to decline in May as the Middle East situation improved.We maintain our “Buy” rating and 12M FV of Bt6.80, based on EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, supported by 14% upside and stronger long-term earnings growth than peers. Meanwhile, tactical upside risk remains limited.In addition, investors should continue to monitor the remaining 75% of debt-to-equity conversion shares, which will become eligible for trading again in August 2026.

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26 Core Profit Declined YoY...

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), with upside increasing to 14% based on a 12M fair value of Bt6.80, implying EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.</li><li>While 2Q26E performance is likely to be pressured by higher jet fuel costs and a potential decline in ASK during June–July due to weaker forward bookings, we are starting to see improving signals.</li><li>Revenue is expected to increase 1% YoY and 6% QoQ, supported by higher passenger yield (+3% YoY, +5% QoQ) driven by stronger demand for direct flights in order to avoid transit through the Middle East, despite ASK and RPK declining 2% YoY.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), with upside increasing to 14% based on a 12M fair value of Bt6.80, implying EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.While 2Q26E performance is likely to be pressured by higher jet fuel costs and a potential decline in ASK during June–July due to weaker forward bookings, we are starting to see improving signals.Revenue is expected to increase 1% YoY and 6% QoQ, supported by higher passenger yield (+3% YoY, +5% QoQ) driven by stronger demand for direct flights in order to avoid transit through the Middle East, despite ASK and RPK declining 2% YoY.

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26E Core Profit Down YoY On Higher Staff Costs

Thailand

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is the flag carrier airline of Thailand, providing passenger, cargo, and mail transportation on scheduled and chartered flights to domestic and international destinations. The company also offers related services such as ground handling, catering, and aircraft maintenance. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1960.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Thai Airways International (THAI TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes in June; DELTA Capping Too

There are 4 changes for the SET50 in June. DELTA will be capped at 10% of the index. Passives need to buy between 1.1-3.7% of float in the adds...

Brian Freitas

August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

By almost every measure, August's US border crossing data look even weaker than the mediocre numbers from July. Clearly, US travel and leisure...

Tracking Traffic

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun26: Final Expectations; 3 ADDs/DELs and Delta Capping

Among the expected ADDs, Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited (TFG TB) continues to see strong share price momentum. It is now up more than 2x...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26 Core Profit Declined YoY...

We maintain our “Buy” rating and 12M FV of Bt6.80, based on EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, supported by 14% upside and stronger long-term earnings growth than...

Krungthai XSpring

THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL Plc. (THAI): 1Q26E Core Profit Down YoY On Higher Staff Costs

We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), with upside increasing to 14% based on a 12M fair value of Bt6.80, implying EV/EBITDA of 3.4x.

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)