Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect a very strong 2Q26E core profit of Bt16.0bn, although negative one-off items should have reduced net profit to Bt7.6bn.</li>
<li>The result is driven by robust market GRM and market GIM of USD21.0/bbl and USD23.5/bbl, respectively, underpinning our upward revisions to our 2026-28E core profit forecasts.</li>
<li>We maintain our Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value of Bt63.50, based on a required return of 15.8%.</li>
</ul>


We expect a very strong 2Q26E core profit of Bt16.0bn, although negative one-off items should have reduced net profit to Bt7.6bn.
The result is driven by robust market GRM and market GIM of USD21.0/bbl and USD23.5/bbl, respectively, underpinning our upward revisions to our 2026-28E core profit forecasts.
We maintain our Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value of Bt63.50, based on a required return of 15.8%.


THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): Strong 2Q26E Core Profit; One-Off Items Weigh on NP; Forecasts Raised

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asian base oils exports have reduced the summer surplus in the region, with recovering demand and upcoming maintenance complicating any extension of those shipments to Europe and the Americas</li></ul><ul><li>Asia's summer surplus is smaller than usual as open arbitrage kept more barrels moving to the Americas and Europe.</li><li>Cargoes that loaded in July and August are now reaching those destinations, partially offsetting tighter US and Middle East supply.</li></ul>

Asian base oils exports have reduced the summer surplus in the region, with recovering demand and upcoming maintenance complicating any extension of those shipments to Europe and the AmericasAsia's summer surplus is smaller than usual as open arbitrage kept more barrels moving to the Americas and Europe.Cargoes that loaded in July and August are now reaching those destinations, partially offsetting tighter US and Middle East supply.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 18 Sep '26

<ul><li>A larger-than-usual cargo with a combination of Group II light and heavy grades was set to load from Taiwan in the coming days, with India a likely destination.</li><li>A large cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August headed to India, with arrival due this week.</li><li>A large cargo with a combination of Group II light and heavy grades loaded from Taiwan at end-July headed to the US Gulf coast, with arrival due in late-September.</li></ul>

A larger-than-usual cargo with a combination of Group II light and heavy grades was set to load from Taiwan in the coming days, with India a likely destination.A large cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August headed to India, with arrival due this week.A large cargo with a combination of Group II light and heavy grades loaded from Taiwan at end-July headed to the US Gulf coast, with arrival due in late-September.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 18 September

<ul><li>Several cargoes of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August and early September, with all of them heading to Southeast Asia and one likely bound for India.</li><li>A cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late July was set to reach East Coast South America at the end of this week.</li><li>Singapore took delivery of more base oils from the Netherlands, adding to a shipment from the same country last week.</li></ul>

Several cargoes of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August and early September, with all of them heading to Southeast Asia and one likely bound for India.A cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late July was set to reach East Coast South America at the end of this week.Singapore took delivery of more base oils from the Netherlands, adding to a shipment from the same country last week.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 11 September

<ul><li>The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave less supply available to absorb further disruptions</li></ul><ul><li>The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with less surplus than usual, after the third-quarter slowdown failed to produce the usual supply build.</li><li>China and India are putting more pressure on available barrels, with China's Group II balance tightening as India's demand extends its recovery.</li></ul>

The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave less supply available to absorb further disruptionsThe base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with less surplus than usual, after the third-quarter slowdown failed to produce the usual supply build.China and India are putting more pressure on available barrels, with China's Group II balance tightening as India's demand extends its recovery.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 11 Sep '26

Thailand

Thai Oil is an integrated energy company engaged in oil refining and petrochemicals, producing a diverse range of products including refined fuels, petrochemicals, and base lubricating oils. It operates one of the leading complex refineries in Asia Pacific with a current capacity of 275,000 barrels per day. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thai Oil (TOP-R TB)

THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): Strong 2Q26E Core Profit; One-Off Items Weigh on NP; Forecasts Raised

We expect a very strong 2Q26E core profit of Bt16.0bn, although negative one-off items should have reduced net profit to Bt7.6bn. The result is...

Krungthai XSpring

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 18 Sep '26

Asian base oils exports have reduced the summer surplus in the region, with recovering demand and upcoming maintenance complicating any extension...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 18 September

A larger-than-usual cargo with a combination of Group II light and heavy grades was set to load from Taiwan in the coming days, with India a...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 11 September

Several cargoes of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August and early September, with all of them heading to Southeast Asia and one...

Base Oil News

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 11 Sep '26

The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave...

Base Oil News

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