Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q25 core/net profit beat estimates by 10%/14% and was the strongest quarter of the year (~63% of full-year earnings), driven by abnormally high market GRM (USD9.4) and GIM (USD11.8).</li><li>Given stretched current valuation at our 12M FV of Bt50.00 (required return: 9.4%) and limited tactical upside, we downgrade to Neutral (from Outperform; previous FV Bt44.75).</li><li>Although 1Q26E GRM may soften QoQ from a high 4Q25 base, we expect it to remain within USD5.5–5.7/bbl over the next two years.</li></ul>

4Q25 core/net profit beat estimates by 10%/14% and was the strongest quarter of the year (~63% of full-year earnings), driven by abnormally high market GRM (USD9.4) and GIM (USD11.8).Given stretched current valuation at our 12M FV of Bt50.00 (required return: 9.4%) and limited tactical upside, we downgrade to Neutral (from Outperform; previous FV Bt44.75).Although 1Q26E GRM may soften QoQ from a high 4Q25 base, we expect it to remain within USD5.5–5.7/bbl over the next two years.

Thai Oil Plc. (TOP): 4Q25/2025 Core Profit Beat; Strong GRM, Deleveraging, CFP

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>A slowdown in cargo loadings from Taiwan extended into a second week, leaving total August volumes relatively low so far.</li><li>An unusually large cargo loaded from Singapore in the past week before heading to Hong Kong.</li><li>The last time a cargo of this size moved from Singapore to Hong Kong was in 2023.</li></ul>

A slowdown in cargo loadings from Taiwan extended into a second week, leaving total August volumes relatively low so far.An unusually large cargo loaded from Singapore in the past week before heading to Hong Kong.The last time a cargo of this size moved from Singapore to Hong Kong was in 2023.

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 21 August

<ul><li>The market is moving into its seasonal demand recovery with supply still constrained, leaving South Korea, India and other alternative suppliers to cover more of the shortfall just as maintenance could reduce their ability to do so.</li></ul><ul><li>The summer slowdown is giving way to a seasonal demand recovery just as spare supply remains thin, making every major export source more important.</li><li>Supply is being redistributed rather than restored. South Korea, India and China have increased their importance as Middle East and other Asian flows weaken, but the shift leaves the market more exposed to disruption at any one of those suppliers.</li></ul>

The market is moving into its seasonal demand recovery with supply still constrained, leaving South Korea, India and other alternative suppliers to cover more of the shortfall just as maintenance could reduce their ability to do so.The summer slowdown is giving way to a seasonal demand recovery just as spare supply remains thin, making every major export source more important.Supply is being redistributed rather than restored. South Korea, India and China have increased their importance as Middle East and other Asian flows weaken, but the shift leaves the market more exposed to disruption at any one of those suppliers.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 21 Aug '26

<ul><li>TOP reported progress on debt reduction and positive CFP developments, easing market concerns amid improving refining margins (market GRM: high base in 4Q25, softening QoQ in 1Q26E but remaining elevated; 2026–27E at mid-cycle), supporting our upward revision to 2026–27E core profit forecasts.</li><li>We maintain an Outperform call with a 12M FV of Bt44.75 (from Bt36.75), supported by an attractive current valuation and 26–28E core EPS growth of 11% CAGR (above peers), with neutral tactical risks.</li><li>TOP has accelerated debt deleveraging totaling USD1,483mn since 2025 (USD933mn from bond buybacks and loan repayments; USD550mn bond buyback in Jan 2026 funded by asset monetization).</li></ul>

TOP reported progress on debt reduction and positive CFP developments, easing market concerns amid improving refining margins (market GRM: high base in 4Q25, softening QoQ in 1Q26E but remaining elevated; 2026–27E at mid-cycle), supporting our upward revision to 2026–27E core profit forecasts.We maintain an Outperform call with a 12M FV of Bt44.75 (from Bt36.75), supported by an attractive current valuation and 26–28E core EPS growth of 11% CAGR (above peers), with neutral tactical risks.TOP has accelerated debt deleveraging totaling USD1,483mn since 2025 (USD933mn from bond buybacks and loan repayments; USD550mn bond buyback in Jan 2026 funded by asset monetization).

THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): Debt Deleveraging Progress; CFP Progress; GRM Outlook

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Thai Oil, JSW Steel</li>
<li>UST yields rose 1-2 bps across the curve yesterday, as treasuries were pressured by a large corporate-issuance supply and amid the strong equities market.</li>
<li>Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs rose 1 bp each to 3.46% and 4.17%, respectively. Equities climbed to fresh record highs, with the S&amp;P and Nasdaq both up 0.6% at 6,945 and 23,547, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Thai Oil, JSW Steel
UST yields rose 1-2 bps across the curve yesterday, as treasuries were pressured by a large corporate-issuance supply and amid the strong equities market.
Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs rose 1 bp each to 3.46% and 4.17%, respectively. Equities climbed to fresh record highs, with the S&amp;P and Nasdaq both up 0.6% at 6,945 and 23,547, respectively.


Thailand

Thai Oil is an integrated energy company engaged in oil refining and petrochemicals, producing a diverse range of products including refined fuels, petrochemicals, and base lubricating oils. It operates one of the leading complex refineries in Asia Pacific with a current capacity of 275,000 barrels per day. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thai Oil (TOP-R TB)

Thai Oil Plc. (TOP): 4Q25/2025 Core Profit Beat; Strong GRM, Deleveraging, CFP

4Q25 core/net profit beat estimates by 10%/14% and was the strongest quarter of the year (~63% of full-year earnings), driven by abnormally high...

Krungthai XSpring

Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 21 August

A slowdown in cargo loadings from Taiwan extended into a second week, leaving total August volumes relatively low so far. An unusually large cargo...

Base Oil News

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 21 Aug '26

The market is moving into its seasonal demand recovery with supply still constrained, leaving South Korea, India and other alternative suppliers...

Base Oil News

THAI OIL Plc. (TOP): Debt Deleveraging Progress; CFP Progress; GRM Outlook

We maintain an Outperform call with a 12M FV of Bt44.75 (from Bt36.75), supported by an attractive current valuation and 26–28E core EPS growth of...

Krungthai XSpring

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Thai Oil, JSW Steel

Lucror Analytics

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