Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TOP reported a crude oil spill incident near the "SBM-2" (Single Buoy Mooring) at Thai Oil's refinery, which occurred on June 5, 2025, at 11:54 p.m.</li><li>The incident is not affecting refinery operations.</li><li>The company maintains comprehensive risk insurance coverage, including third-party liability insurance, environmental liability insurance, and transport insurance.</li></ul>

TOP reported a crude oil spill incident near the "SBM-2" (Single Buoy Mooring) at Thai Oil's refinery, which occurred on June 5, 2025, at 11:54 p.m.The incident is not affecting refinery operations.The company maintains comprehensive risk insurance coverage, including third-party liability insurance, environmental liability insurance, and transport insurance.

Conference Call: Crude Oil Spill Near Single Buoy Mooring No. 2 (SBM-2) At Sea

<ul><li>1Q25 core profit (excluding a stock gain) declined YoY and QoQ due to a contraction in the GRM.</li><li>We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts (2-year core EPS CAGR of - 6%), based on conservative assumptions for the GRM and higher financial costs to support additional capital expenditures for the Clean Fuel Project (CFP).</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating with a 12-month fair value of Bt28.00. </li></ul>

1Q25 core profit (excluding a stock gain) declined YoY and QoQ due to a contraction in the GRM.We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts (2-year core EPS CAGR of - 6%), based on conservative assumptions for the GRM and higher financial costs to support additional capital expenditures for the Clean Fuel Project (CFP).We maintain our Neutral rating with a 12-month fair value of Bt28.00. 

Thai Oil - In-Line 1Q25 NP — Contracting GRM; Stock Gain a Key Cushion

<ul><li>We expect 1Q25E core profit (excluding stock gains) to decline YoY and QoQ, mainly due to a correction in the gross refining margin (GRM).</li><li>Accordingly, we have revised down our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 7-8%, reflecting a more conservative assumption for the GRM.</li><li>Under the new estimates, we forecast negative 2-year core EPS growth at a CAGR of -6%.</li></ul>

We expect 1Q25E core profit (excluding stock gains) to decline YoY and QoQ, mainly due to a correction in the gross refining margin (GRM).Accordingly, we have revised down our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 7-8%, reflecting a more conservative assumption for the GRM.Under the new estimates, we forecast negative 2-year core EPS growth at a CAGR of -6%.

Thai Oil - Weak GRM and Core Profit in 1Q25E; Downward Revision to 2025-27E Earnings

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Apr 4th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Airports of Thailand, PTT E&amp;P, Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank, CP ALL, CP AXTRA NVDR, Thai Oil, Supalai, Siri Prime Office Property Fd.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Apr 4th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Airports of Thailand, PTT E&amp;P, Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank, CP ALL, CP AXTRA NVDR, Thai Oil, Supalai, Siri Prime Office Property Fd.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 4th): Airports of Thailand, PTT E&P, Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Mar 28th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD0.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CP AXTRA NVDR, Thai Oil, Central Pattana, Indorama Ventures, PTT E&amp;P, Airports of Thailand, Kasikornbank, Bangkok Bank, CP ALL.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Mar 28th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD0.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CP AXTRA NVDR, Thai Oil, Central Pattana, Indorama Ventures, PTT E&amp;P, Airports of Thailand, Kasikornbank, Bangkok Bank, CP ALL.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): CP AXTRA, Thai Oil, Central Pattana, Indorama Ventures

Thailand

Thai Oil is an integrated energy company engaged in oil refining and petrochemicals, producing a diverse range of products including refined fuels, petrochemicals, and base lubricating oils. It operates one of the leading complex refineries in Asia Pacific with a current capacity of 275,000 barrels per day. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thai Oil (TOP-R TB)

Conference Call: Crude Oil Spill Near Single Buoy Mooring No. 2 (SBM-2) At Sea

TOP reported a crude oil spill incident near the "SBM-2" (Single Buoy Mooring) at Thai Oil's refinery, which occurred on June 5, 2025, at 11:54...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - In-Line 1Q25 NP — Contracting GRM; Stock Gain a Key Cushion

1Q25 core profit (excluding a stock gain) declined YoY and QoQ due to a contraction in the GRM. We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts (2...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - Weak GRM and Core Profit in 1Q25E; Downward Revision to 2025-27E Earnings

We expect 1Q25E core profit (excluding stock gains) to decline YoY and QoQ, mainly due to a correction in the gross refining margin (GRM).

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 4th): Airports of Thailand, PTT E&P, Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Airports of Thailand, PTT E&P, Bangkok Bank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): CP AXTRA, Thai Oil, Central Pattana, Indorama Ventures

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in CP AXTRA NVDR, Thai Oil, Central Pattana,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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