Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>On February 19, 2025, Samsung E&amp;A (Thailand) Co., Ltd. and Saipem Singapore Pte. Ltd. (the "claimants," which are two of the three companies under the UJV) initiated arbitration proceedings against TOP at the Singapore International Arbitration Centre.</li><li>The dispute concerns TOP’s enforcement of a guarantee against UJV in the amount of USD358mn on January 24, 2025, which the claimants argue was premature and inappropriate.</li><li>They have also filed a claim for damages against TOP (with no further details disclosed).</li></ul>

On February 19, 2025, Samsung E&amp;A (Thailand) Co., Ltd. and Saipem Singapore Pte. Ltd. (the "claimants," which are two of the three companies under the UJV) initiated arbitration proceedings against TOP at the Singapore International Arbitration Centre.The dispute concerns TOP’s enforcement of a guarantee against UJV in the amount of USD358mn on January 24, 2025, which the claimants argue was premature and inappropriate.They have also filed a claim for damages against TOP (with no further details disclosed).

THAI OIL Plc. - Clarification on the Arbitration Process Related to the Clean Fuel Project

<ul><li>4Q24 NP exceeded our expectation by 15%, while 2024 NP was a bit higher (4%) than our estimate.</li><li>The year 2024 performance declined YoY, consistent with the market GIM, along with huge stock losses.</li><li>We maintain our 2025-26E earnings estimates and expect 2-year core EPS growth at a -13% CAGR.</li></ul>

4Q24 NP exceeded our expectation by 15%, while 2024 NP was a bit higher (4%) than our estimate.The year 2024 performance declined YoY, consistent with the market GIM, along with huge stock losses.We maintain our 2025-26E earnings estimates and expect 2-year core EPS growth at a -13% CAGR.

Thai Oil - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Hedging Gain; Risks Regarding CFP Remain

<ul><li>The guarantee of USD358mn received by TOP (out of a total of USD483mn) marks a positive development for the CFP (Clean Fuel Project).</li><li>It eases the funding plan for the additional investment required for the CFP, amounting to USD1,776mn, by allowing the company to scale back or delay a bond issuance/loans and reduce interest expenses.</li><li>This is reflected in an upward revision of the net profit estimates for 2025-26E and the new fair value of Bt32.0 (previously Bt27.0).</li></ul>

The guarantee of USD358mn received by TOP (out of a total of USD483mn) marks a positive development for the CFP (Clean Fuel Project).It eases the funding plan for the additional investment required for the CFP, amounting to USD1,776mn, by allowing the company to scale back or delay a bond issuance/loans and reduce interest expenses.This is reflected in an upward revision of the net profit estimates for 2025-26E and the new fair value of Bt32.0 (previously Bt27.0).

Thai Oil - CFP: Eased Funding Plan but Challenges Remain

<ul><li>We expect the 4Q24E earnings to have improved QoQ, supported by a better market GIM, with negligible stock impacts.</li><li>However, the 2024E net profit is likely to decline YoY, in line with the lower market GIM and stock losses.</li><li>We maintain our 2025-26E earnings forecasts, projecting 2-year core EPS growth at a -21% CAGR, which underperforms the sector.</li></ul>

We expect the 4Q24E earnings to have improved QoQ, supported by a better market GIM, with negligible stock impacts.However, the 2024E net profit is likely to decline YoY, in line with the lower market GIM and stock losses.We maintain our 2025-26E earnings forecasts, projecting 2-year core EPS growth at a -21% CAGR, which underperforms the sector.

Thai Oil  - 4Q24E Earnings to Have Improved QoQ; CFP the Overhang

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.</li>
<li>Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 stocks listed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February.
There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$50m flow and between 3.5-64x ADV. Positioning is not very high in a lot of the stocks.
Stocks could avoid deletion if they move higher in the next week or two. But increased positioning could keep a lid on that.


Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

Thailand

Thai Oil is an integrated energy company engaged in oil refining and petrochemicals, producing a diverse range of products including refined fuels, petrochemicals, and base lubricating oils. It operates one of the leading complex refineries in Asia Pacific with a current capacity of 275,000 barrels per day. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thai Oil (TOP-R TB)

Thai Oil - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Hedging Gain; Risks Regarding CFP Remain

4Q24 NP exceeded our expectation by 15%, while 2024 NP was a bit higher (4%) than our estimate. The year 2024 performance declined YoY, consistent...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - CFP: Eased Funding Plan but Challenges Remain

The guarantee of USD358mn received by TOP (out of a total of USD483mn) marks a positive development for the CFP (Clean Fuel Project).

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - 4Q24E Earnings to Have Improved QoQ; CFP the Overhang

We expect the 4Q24E earnings to have improved QoQ, supported by a better market GIM, with negligible stock impacts. However, the 2024E net profit...

Krungthai XSpring

Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

There are 8 Indo, Malay, Thai and Phil stocks that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February. Flow is US$52m-US$123m and impact is 3.5...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

THAI OIL Plc. - Clarification on the Arbitration Process Related to the Clean Fuel Project

The dispute concerns TOP’s enforcement of a guarantee against UJV in the amount of USD358mn on January 24, 2025, which the claimants argue was...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Hedging Gain; Risks Regarding CFP Remain

4Q24 NP exceeded our expectation by 15%, while 2024 NP was a bit higher (4%) than our estimate. The year 2024 performance declined YoY, consistent...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - CFP: Eased Funding Plan but Challenges Remain

The guarantee of USD358mn received by TOP (out of a total of USD483mn) marks a positive development for the CFP (Clean Fuel Project).

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - 4Q24E Earnings to Have Improved QoQ; CFP the Overhang

We expect the 4Q24E earnings to have improved QoQ, supported by a better market GIM, with negligible stock impacts. However, the 2024E net profit...

Krungthai XSpring

Southeast Asia: The Passive Axe Hangs as Positioning Increases

There are 8 Indo, Malay, Thai and Phil stocks that could be deleted from passive portfolios in February. Flow is US$52m-US$123m and impact is 3.5...

Brian Freitas