Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>Although 80% of the 3-month reference period is now complete, it is still possible for the rankings to change.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
Although 80% of the 3-month reference period is now complete, it is still possible for the rankings to change.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: BANPU Vs SAWAD Has to Be Monitored Closely

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The share price decline has largely priced in the outlook of a weak GRM QoQ in 2Q24E, in line with the Singapore GRM.</li><li>The normalization of the 2024E GRM (weaker YoY) has been incorporated into our earnings projections.</li><li>Meanwhile, the commercial commencement of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) in 2025E, which will generate an incremental GRM, should reaffirm our view of strong long-term earnings prospects, with projected 2024-26E EPS growth at a 23% CAGR.</li></ul>

The share price decline has largely priced in the outlook of a weak GRM QoQ in 2Q24E, in line with the Singapore GRM.The normalization of the 2024E GRM (weaker YoY) has been incorporated into our earnings projections.Meanwhile, the commercial commencement of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) in 2025E, which will generate an incremental GRM, should reaffirm our view of strong long-term earnings prospects, with projected 2024-26E EPS growth at a 23% CAGR.

Thai Oil -Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings; CFP Project to Drive LT Earnings

<ul><li>TOP is expected to make a good start to the year with strong 1Q24E NP of Bt5.05bn in 1Q24E (+72% QoQ, +11% YoY).</li><li>We believe the firm will be able to achieve our 2024E NP estimate, with the potential normalization of the GRM to be offset by a lower crude premium YoY.</li><li>Meanwhile, the commercial commencement of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) in 2025E, which will generate an incremental GRM, should reaffirm our view of strong long-term earnings prospects, with projected 2024-26E EPS growth at a 23% CAGR. </li></ul>

TOP is expected to make a good start to the year with strong 1Q24E NP of Bt5.05bn in 1Q24E (+72% QoQ, +11% YoY).We believe the firm will be able to achieve our 2024E NP estimate, with the potential normalization of the GRM to be offset by a lower crude premium YoY.Meanwhile, the commercial commencement of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) in 2025E, which will generate an incremental GRM, should reaffirm our view of strong long-term earnings prospects, with projected 2024-26E EPS growth at a 23% CAGR. 

Thai Oil - Strong 1Q24E Earnings; Good LT Earnings Momentum

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,375/1,381 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,362/1,357 points.</li><li>We anticipate the chairman to reiterate a cautious approach towards cutting the fed funds rate, given the lingering risk of persistent inflation.</li><li>The ECB is anticipated to maintain the policy interest rate for the fourth consecutive time at 4.5%.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,375/1,381 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,362/1,357 points.We anticipate the chairman to reiterate a cautious approach towards cutting the fed funds rate, given the lingering risk of persistent inflation.The ECB is anticipated to maintain the policy interest rate for the fourth consecutive time at 4.5%.

Thailand

Thai Oil is an integrated energy company engaged in oil refining and petrochemicals, producing a diverse range of products including refined fuels, petrochemicals, and base lubricating oils. It operates one of the leading complex refineries in Asia Pacific with a current capacity of 275,000 barrels per day. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thai Oil (TOP-R TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: BANPU Vs SAWAD Has to Be Monitored Closely

After considering the recent methodology changes (relaxing the liquidity criteria), we believe BJC will be added in June 2024 and that could cause...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Thai Oil -Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings; CFP Project to Drive LT Earnings

Meanwhile, the commercial commencement of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) in 2025E, which will generate an incremental GRM, should reaffirm our view...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Oil - Strong 1Q24E Earnings; Good LT Earnings Momentum

We believe the firm will be able to achieve our 2024E NP estimate, with the potential normalization of the GRM to be offset by a lower crude...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

Srisawad is currently an expected DEL. However, the gap between 51st-ranked Srisawad and 50th-ranked Banpu is very small and it is still possible...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Keep a Close Watch on the ECB Meeting

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,375/1,381 points (10-day and 25-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

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