Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As first discussed back in May (see <a href="https://skr.ma/LAfHm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xspring-capital-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19807:1" rel="noopener">XSpring (XPG TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bec-world-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16881:1" rel="noopener">BEC (BEC TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-practical-solution-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45379:1" rel="noopener">The Practical Solution (TPS TB)</a> all went limit down. Twice.</li>
<li>As widely reported at the time, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana reportedly pledged his holdings in all four companies. Pledged shares in KTC ballooned in June versus May, but since fallen.</li>
<li>All four were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big moves were seen in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bcpg-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24051:1" rel="noopener">BCPG (BCPG TB)</a> (up), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-foods-group-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24053:1" rel="noopener">Thai Foods Group (TFG TB)</a> (down).</li>
</ul>


As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
As widely reported at the time, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana reportedly pledged his holdings in all four companies. Pledged shares in KTC ballooned in June versus May, but since fallen.
All four were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big moves were seen in BCPG (BCPG TB) (up), and Thai Foods Group (TFG TB) (down).


Thai Pledged Shares: The Prakitchaiwattana Complex Remains Static

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TFG’s retail business serves as its flagship, supporting both sales growth and margin expansion through the group’s retail channels.</li><li>KTX has raised our fair value estimate to Bt6.50, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 18.4% (previously Bt6.30 with a required return of 18.3%).</li><li>Based on our valuation metrics, we maintain an “Outperform” rating from a fundamental perspective (with 20% upside to the share price), while our tactical view remains neutral.</li></ul>

TFG’s retail business serves as its flagship, supporting both sales growth and margin expansion through the group’s retail channels.KTX has raised our fair value estimate to Bt6.50, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 18.4% (previously Bt6.30 with a required return of 18.3%).Based on our valuation metrics, we maintain an “Outperform” rating from a fundamental perspective (with 20% upside to the share price), while our tactical view remains neutral.

THAIFOODS GROUP Plc. (TFG): 2025–27E Earnings Raised 17% P.A....

<ul><li>We have revised our fair value estimate to Bt6.30, based on a required return of 16.8%, reflecting our new house view’s assumptions of Rf = 1.45% and MRP = 5.26% (previously Bt5.20, 20.8%, 1.48%, and 6.83%).</li><li>Valuation metrics: We have upgraded our rating to Outperform (from Neutral) following the upward revision of our current fundamental view to buy (from neutral), as the share price implies 24% upside to the new fair value.</li><li>We maintain our view that the long-term growth outlook is in line with the sector average (with 2-year core growth in 2025-27E expected at a CAGR of -5.3% per year from the high base in 2025E), and the tactical view is neutral.</li></ul>

We have revised our fair value estimate to Bt6.30, based on a required return of 16.8%, reflecting our new house view’s assumptions of Rf = 1.45% and MRP = 5.26% (previously Bt5.20, 20.8%, 1.48%, and 6.83%).Valuation metrics: We have upgraded our rating to Outperform (from Neutral) following the upward revision of our current fundamental view to buy (from neutral), as the share price implies 24% upside to the new fair value.We maintain our view that the long-term growth outlook is in line with the sector average (with 2-year core growth in 2025-27E expected at a CAGR of -5.3% per year from the high base in 2025E), and the tactical view is neutral.

Thaifoods Group - Strong YoY and QoQ Performance in 2Q25

<ul><li>The momentum in 2Q25E is positive, with core profit expected to grow both YoY and QoQ, supported by strong margins (driven by higher swine and broiler prices in Thailand and Vietnam), lower raw material costs, increased swine sales volume, a solid export performance in the European broiler market, and retail store expansion with strong SSSG.</li><li>An interim dividend of Bt0.085 is expected for 2Q25E, implying an annualized dividend yield of 7%.</li><li>In terms of the valuation metrics, we maintain our view that long-term growth outlook is in line with the sector average, with 2025-27E earnings growth projected at a negative CAGR of -5.3% from a high 2025E base.</li></ul>

The momentum in 2Q25E is positive, with core profit expected to grow both YoY and QoQ, supported by strong margins (driven by higher swine and broiler prices in Thailand and Vietnam), lower raw material costs, increased swine sales volume, a solid export performance in the European broiler market, and retail store expansion with strong SSSG.An interim dividend of Bt0.085 is expected for 2Q25E, implying an annualized dividend yield of 7%.In terms of the valuation metrics, we maintain our view that long-term growth outlook is in line with the sector average, with 2025-27E earnings growth projected at a negative CAGR of -5.3% from a high 2025E base.

Thaifoods Group - 2Q25E Earnings to Have Grown YoY and QoQ

<ul><li>Momentum in 2Q25E: Core profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ due to strong margins (as swine and broiler prices in Thailand and Vietnam have risen, while raw material costs have declined).</li><li>Swine sales volume is increasing, the broiler export business to Europe is performing well (as Brazil has reported avian flu in commercial farms) , and retail store expansion continues with strong SSSG.</li><li>This, combined with a better-than-expected margin in 1Q25, prompts us to raise our 2025E profit forecast by 19% and slightly revise up the 2026- 27E estimates.</li></ul>

Momentum in 2Q25E: Core profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ due to strong margins (as swine and broiler prices in Thailand and Vietnam have risen, while raw material costs have declined).Swine sales volume is increasing, the broiler export business to Europe is performing well (as Brazil has reported avian flu in commercial farms) , and retail store expansion continues with strong SSSG.This, combined with a better-than-expected margin in 1Q25, prompts us to raise our 2025E profit forecast by 19% and slightly revise up the 2026- 27E estimates.

Thaifoods Group - 2025E Profit Forecast Revised up 19%

Thailand

Thaifoods Group is a vertically integrated food producer specializing in the production of chicken and swine, operating in Thailand and Vietnam. The company's core activities include chicken breeding, meat production, processed chicken products, pig breeding, and live pig sales. It also operates feed mills and a retail business. Thaifoods Group was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Thaifoods Group (TFG TB)

Thai Pledged Shares: The Prakitchaiwattana Complex Remains Static

Pledged shares in the four key Prakitchaiwattana-held stocks, including Krungthai Card, were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big...

David Blennerhassett

THAIFOODS GROUP Plc. (TFG): 2025–27E Earnings Raised 17% P.A....

TFG’s retail business serves as its flagship, supporting both sales growth and margin expansion through the group’s retail channels.

Krungthai XSpring

Thaifoods Group - Strong YoY and QoQ Performance in 2Q25

We have revised our fair value estimate to Bt6.30, based on a required return of 16.8%, reflecting our new house view’s assumptions of Rf = 1.45%...

Krungthai XSpring

Thaifoods Group - 2Q25E Earnings to Have Grown YoY and QoQ

The momentum in 2Q25E is positive, with core profit expected to grow both YoY and QoQ, supported by strong margins (driven by higher swine and...

Krungthai XSpring

Thaifoods Group - 2025E Profit Forecast Revised up 19%

Momentum in 2Q25E: Core profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ due to strong margins (as swine and broiler prices in Thailand and Vietnam have...

Krungthai XSpring

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