Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.</li><li>The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.</li><li>Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?</li></ul>

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go of the steering wheel on USD real rates.The weekly credit data from the US economy keeps weakening and we are en route for a credit contraction in the US during Q1/Q2 next year.Powell is probably right to let go of the tightness in USD real rates, but the question is whether he could be tempted to take back control in December in a final policy error?

Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.</li><li>While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.</li><li>Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate</li></ul>

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul>
<li>In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.</li>
<li>Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.
Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.
Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Numerous New Year developments suggest markets are heading towards a world where the worst of the Covid might be behind us and a better growth trajectory awaits</li>
<li>Yields have moved higher, airlines &amp; transport have performed well, Oil is up, and some Asian markets have started to rebound or breakout – Australia, Vietnam &amp; India as examples</li>
<li>This brings Thailand in focus as one of the major tourist destinations. The charts below show the breakouts and potential trends at work</li>
</ul>


Numerous New Year developments suggest markets are heading towards a world where the worst of the Covid might be behind us and a better growth trajectory awaits
Yields have moved higher, airlines &amp; transport have performed well, Oil is up, and some Asian markets have started to rebound or breakout – Australia, Vietnam &amp; India as examples
This brings Thailand in focus as one of the major tourist destinations. The charts below show the breakouts and potential trends at work


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

We have been bullish/long the DXY from 89 and more recently from 92 with a target at 94.00-50 and the level to sell the USD and turn short the greenback. Early USD shorts touted in CAD and GBP.US 10yr rise to 1.50% call to support a final USD push into our sell zone. USD will also find a final bid on a secondary pullback in the US equity cycle (EM and Asia FX) in October.We see synergy with yield near 1.50% and a DXY top near 94.DXY bear divergence is maturing into a final drive to the 94+ zone. We want to sell the next USD push/new high.

We have been bullish/long the DXY from 89 and more recently from 92 with a target at 94.00-50 and the level to sell the USD and turn short the greenback. Early USD shorts touted in CAD and GBP.US 10yr rise to 1.50% call to support a final USD push into our sell zone. USD will also find a final bid on a secondary pullback in the US equity cycle (EM and Asia FX) in October.We see synergy with yield near 1.50% and a DXY top near 94.DXY bear divergence is maturing into a final drive to the 94+ zone. We want to sell the next USD push/new high.

Thailand

The Thai baht is the official currency of Thailand. 

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Steno Signals #74 – Did King USD Just Break?

The sharp move in USDJPY and other USD pairs towards the end of last week has caught our attention and it arrives on the back of Powell letting go...

Steno Research

EM by EM #30 Pick-up from King Carry?

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus...

Steno Research

EM Traffic Light July 2023

In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels. Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are...

Nordea

Thailand – Another Asian Break

The Thai stock market shows a breakout while the currency is starting the year on a positive footing. Gains of some 9%-10% could be on the horizon...

Shyam Devani

USD DXY 94 Sell Target

We have been bullish/long the DXY from 89 and more recently from 92 with a target at 94.00-50 and the level to sell the USD and turn short the...

Thomas Schroeder

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