Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

FX & Rates

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<p>In our next Smartkarma Webinar, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/olivier-desbarres" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:6282" rel="noopener">Olivier Desbarres</a> will discuss his outlook for Asian currencies. The webinar will be held on 1 April 2020 at 1700hrs Singapore/Hong Kong time.</p>
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<a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=502894640" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a>.</h2></div>
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<p>Olivier Desbarres has over 21 years of experience in the finance industry, including 15 years as a senior Economist, Rates and FX strategist for Credit Suisse and Barclays in Moscow, London and Singapore.</p>
<p>In his last role, he was Head of Asia-Pacific FX Strategy at Barclays in Singapore and focal point for G10 research. Prior to that, Olivier covered Emerging Europe, Middle and Africa at Credit Suisse in London where he built a strong track record with the world’s largest fund managers. He was also the UK Rates Strategist for two years and wrote extensively on EU and Eurozone membership.</p>
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In our next Smartkarma Webinar, Olivier Desbarres will discuss his outlook for Asian currencies. The webinar will be held on 1 April 2020 at 1700hrs Singapore/Hong Kong time.



Register for the Webinar here.

Olivier Desbarres has over 21 years of experience in the finance industry, including 15 years as a senior Economist, Rates and FX strategist for Credit Suisse and Barclays in Moscow, London and Singapore.
In his last role, he was Head of Asia-Pacific FX Strategy at Barclays in Singapore and focal point for G10 research. Prior to that, Olivier covered Emerging Europe, Middle and Africa at Credit Suisse in London where he built a strong track record with the world’s largest fund managers. He was also the UK Rates Strategist for two years and wrote extensively on EU and Eurozone membership.


Smartkarma Webinar | Asian Currencies Outlook

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thb" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22830:1">THB (USDTHB CURNCY)</a> below 31 is flagging valuation concerns with high conviction chart bottoming signals. The macro cycle is due to bottom near the 30.50 level with risk toward the lower 30 area as the risk limit area. </p><p style="text-align: left;">Micro and macro cycle bull divergence is maturing in the daily and weekly charts and forms when the trend is near a terminal point stemming from diminishing USD sell volumes and momentum (THB tends to spike into a low however) as the market finds itself very long the THB.</p><p style="text-align: left;">USD/THB macro cycle is etching out a cycle low at a time when intervention risk is rising to stem the Baht's strength.</p><p style="text-align: left;">A USD cycle low will provide headwinds for the SET rally and front run an equity peak. Exports plays on our radar.</p>

THB (USDTHB CURNCY) below 31 is flagging valuation concerns with high conviction chart bottoming signals. The macro cycle is due to bottom near the 30.50 level with risk toward the lower 30 area as the risk limit area. Micro and macro cycle bull divergence is maturing in the daily and weekly charts and forms when the trend is near a terminal point stemming from diminishing USD sell volumes and momentum (THB tends to spike into a low however) as the market finds itself very long the THB.USD/THB macro cycle is etching out a cycle low at a time when intervention risk is rising to stem the Baht's strength.A USD cycle low will provide headwinds for the SET rally and front run an equity peak. Exports plays on our radar.

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

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<li>Thailand 6-month reference rate should remain capped below 1,40%.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22830" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22830:1">THB (USDTHB CURNCY)</a> outright swaps are showing elements of bearish reversal (Crossing Moviong Averages, RSI entering bearish territory).</li>
<li>In parallel, the 1-5y curve is also showing signs of a significant flattening reaction below 83/989bps towards 50/40bps even 32bps.</li>
<li>Therefore, going to be received on the mid-end part of the curve makes more sense, with a 5y outright swaps expected to drop below 2,1350/2,1300% to reach 1,77% at…</li>
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Thailand 6-month reference rate should remain capped below 1,40%.

THB (USDTHB CURNCY) outright swaps are showing elements of bearish reversal (Crossing Moviong Averages, RSI entering bearish territory).
In parallel, the 1-5y curve is also showing signs of a significant flattening reaction below 83/989bps towards 50/40bps even 32bps.
Therefore, going to be received on the mid-end part of the curve makes more sense, with a 5y outright swaps expected to drop below 2,1350/2,1300% to reach 1,77% at…


Thailand Swaps : Bullish Flattening Expected

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.</em></p>

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook.  The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop.  The ECB tried to talk down the EUR today and failed.  While the market appears to be grabbing for safe havens (gold, Treasuries, JPY), the market is not necessarily feeling bad about the global economy.  In fact, it is feeling pretty good about emerging markets.  Global economic indicators are robust, and commodity prices are rising.  A number of Asian currencies have broken steady ranges to make new highs.  The MYR and THB are both stronger along with their equity markets.

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

Thailand

The Thai baht is the official currency of Thailand. 

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THB (USDTHB CURNCY)

Smartkarma Webinar | Asian Currencies Outlook

In our next Smartkarma Webinar, Olivier Desbarres will discuss his outlook for Asian currencies. The webinar will be held on 1 April 2020 at...

Smartkarma Research

USD/Thai Baht Macro Cycle Low

THB (USDTHB CURNCY) below 31 is flagging valuation concerns with high conviction chart bottoming signals. The macro cycle is due to bottom near the...

Thomas Schroeder

Thailand Swaps : Bullish Flattening Expected

Thailand 6-month reference rate should remain capped below 1,40%. THB (USDTHB CURNCY) outright swaps are showing elements of bearish reversal...

Guillaume Coutant

Populist Pandering Hurts the Dollar; Emerging Markets Powering On

USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook. ...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)