Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NHAI has delivered a very successful highway program, following the advent of Bharatmala (BM-1)</li><li>The huge scaling up of the NH program in terms of getting the model right, awarding, executing, financing, creating a highly competitive vendor ecosystem, and monetizing assets is no mean task and involves significant execution complexities that could have only been handled by the N’HAI’ Way</li><li>We have done an in-depth analysis of the NHAI financial model and believe that concerns about debt may get tackled from FY31 onwards as NHAI is capable of meeting its debt commitments on its own and solely relying on budgetary support for additional NH capex</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NHAI has delivered a very successful highway program, following the advent of Bharatmala (BM-1)The huge scaling up of the NH program in terms of getting the model right, awarding, executing, financing, creating a highly competitive vendor ecosystem, and monetizing assets is no mean task and involves significant execution complexities that could have only been handled by the N’HAI’ WayWe have done an in-depth analysis of the NHAI financial model and believe that concerns about debt may get tackled from FY31 onwards as NHAI is capable of meeting its debt commitments on its own and solely relying on budgetary support for additional NH capexContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Titan: Titan’s top-line growth remains healthy. Revenue grew 26% YoY to INR 119bn</li><li>Ex-bullion sales grew 22% YoY to INR97.5bn (in-line) as both buyers’ growth (+14% YoY) and ticket sizes (+6% YoY) aided growth</li><li>The key take from the Q1 print was the preference for market share gain over margins</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Titan: Titan’s top-line growth remains healthy. Revenue grew 26% YoY to INR 119bnEx-bullion sales grew 22% YoY to INR97.5bn (in-line) as both buyers’ growth (+14% YoY) and ticket sizes (+6% YoY) aided growthThe key take from the Q1 print was the preference for market share gain over marginsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Ambuja Cement, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

<ul><li>FY24 started off with a muted quarter in terms of road project awarding amidst high competitive intensity: In Q1FY24, the NHAI awarded just four projects (vs ten projects in Q1FY23), of which two were HAM projects worth INR 20.6bn (vs nine projects worth INR 98.1bn in Q1FY23) and two were EPC projects worth INR 19.4bn (vs one project worth INR 7.7bn in Q1FY23)</li><li>The total project stretch stood at ~104 km (vs ~367 km in Q1FY23)</li><li>All the projects were bid at a discount over the NHAI cost</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FY24 started off with a muted quarter in terms of road project awarding amidst high competitive intensity: In Q1FY24, the NHAI awarded just four projects (vs ten projects in Q1FY23), of which two were HAM projects worth INR 20.6bn (vs nine projects worth INR 98.1bn in Q1FY23) and two were EPC projects worth INR 19.4bn (vs one project worth INR 7.7bn in Q1FY23)The total project stretch stood at ~104 km (vs ~367 km in Q1FY23)All the projects were bid at a discount over the NHAI costContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>ITC: ITC’s Q4 print was largely in-line with Revenue/EBITDA/APAT growing by 7/19/20% vs the expectation of 8/17/17%</li><li>Cigarette revenue/EBIT growth was at 14% each, with volume growth at c.11.5% (4% four-year CAGR)</li><li>A stable tax environment, normalisation in demand, &amp; deterrent action by agencies on illicit trade continue to support cigarette recovery</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC: ITC’s Q4 print was largely in-line with Revenue/EBITDA/APAT growing by 7/19/20% vs the expectation of 8/17/17%Cigarette revenue/EBIT growth was at 14% each, with volume growth at c.11.5% (4% four-year CAGR)A stable tax environment, normalisation in demand, &amp; deterrent action by agencies on illicit trade continue to support cigarette recoveryContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, State Bank of India, Berger Paints

India

Thermax Ltd manufactures equipment and machinery used to both produce and to conserve energy. The Company operates through a number of divisions, including Boilers, Heat Recovery Steam Generators, Water Treatment Plants and Air Pollution Control Equipment. In addition, Thermax  produces steam and gas turbines and diesel gensets through a number of strategic alliances.

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Thermax (TMX IN)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Industrials: N’HAI’ Way

We have done an in-depth analysis of the NHAI financial model and believe that concerns about debt may get tackled from FY31 onwards

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Ambuja Cement, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

Ex-bullion sales grew 22% YoY to INR97.5bn (in-line) as both buyers’ growth (+14% YoY) and ticket sizes (+6% YoY) aided growth

HDFC Securities

Industrials: Muted start for the year

FY24 started off with a muted quarter in terms of road project awarding amidst high competitive intensity: In Q1FY24, the NHAI awarded just four...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, State Bank of India, Berger Paints

ITC: ITC’s Q4 print was largely in-line with Revenue/EBITDA/APAT growing by 7/19/20% vs the expectation of 8/17/17%. Cigarette revenue/EBIT growth...

HDFC Securities

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