Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Deregulation's Green Energy Boost: Reduced federal oversight could accelerate innovation in renewables as corporations and markets drive sustainability efforts independently of government policies.</li>
<li>Tariff-Induced Deflation Risks: Disrupted global supply chains and demand destruction from tariffs may lead to deflationary pressures rather than the widely expected inflation.</li>
<li>Rise of Privatized Services: Tax cuts could act as a gateway to increased privatization of government services, shifting more essential functions like education and law enforcement to corporate control.</li>
</ul>


Deregulation's Green Energy Boost: Reduced federal oversight could accelerate innovation in renewables as corporations and markets drive sustainability efforts independently of government policies.
Tariff-Induced Deflation Risks: Disrupted global supply chains and demand destruction from tariffs may lead to deflationary pressures rather than the widely expected inflation.
Rise of Privatized Services: Tax cuts could act as a gateway to increased privatization of government services, shifting more essential functions like education and law enforcement to corporate control.


Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation, Tariffs, and Tax Reforms

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting resulted in a 5 to 2 vote to reduce the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, a move that surprised the market.</li><li>KTX expects the MPC to refrain from further rate cuts in the next meeting as they await more clarity on key economic indicators, such as inflation and loan growth, which were contributing factors to this rate cut.</li><li>We believe this reduction, the first easing of monetary policy in over four years (the last easing cycle occurred in July 2019, when rates were cut from 1.75% to a low of 0.5% in May 2020), will generate positive sentiment in sectors sensitive to lower interest rates, including finance (auto title loans, leasing, credit cards), real estate development, and the PF & REIT sectors.</li></ul>

The latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting resulted in a 5 to 2 vote to reduce the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, a move that surprised the market.KTX expects the MPC to refrain from further rate cuts in the next meeting as they await more clarity on key economic indicators, such as inflation and loan growth, which were contributing factors to this rate cut.We believe this reduction, the first easing of monetary policy in over four years (the last easing cycle occurred in July 2019, when rates were cut from 1.75% to a low of 0.5% in May 2020), will generate positive sentiment in sectors sensitive to lower interest rates, including finance (auto title loans, leasing, credit cards), real estate development, and the PF & REIT sectors.

Economic Update: MPC Votes 5:2 to Cut Rate to 2.25%

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. </li>
<li>As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
</ul>


Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.
Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. 
As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.


Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Canada

Thomson Reuters Corporation provides business information services. The Company offers information-enabled software and tools for legal, tax, accounting, and compliance professionals. Thomson Reuters also provides news services worldwide.

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Thomson Reuters (TRI US)

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation, Tariffs, and Tax Reforms

Trump's re-election sparks a policy rodeo of deregulation, tariffs, and tax cuts, but focus should be on structural trends as that will always...

Pyari Menon

Economic Update: MPC Votes 5:2 to Cut Rate to 2.25%

The latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting resulted in a 5 to 2 vote to reduce the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, a move that...

Krungthai XSpring

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullbacks in $EFA $ACWX as they hold above $80 and $53.50 supports; Europe and Japan also buyable pullbacks to uptrend supports; Market...

Vermilion Research

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