HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Jintan has taken the lead in niche market with "IP+ snacks" model, achieving strong short-term growth.However, it has been constrained by external IP reliance, rising customer concentration, cash flow pressure.</li>
<li>With seasonal adjustments in 25H2, the revenue growth rate could be 10%YoY in 2025 full year. With the diversification of IP/channels expansion, revenue growth could be 15%YoY/12%YoY in 2026/2027.</li>
<li>Jintan's characteristic is high growth but high external IP dependency risk, so a reasonable valuation should be lower than Pop Mart but higher than other traditional snack enterprises.</li>
</ul>


Jintan has taken the lead in niche market with "IP+ snacks" model, achieving strong short-term growth.However, it has been constrained by external IP reliance, rising customer concentration, cash flow pressure.
With seasonal adjustments in 25H2, the revenue growth rate could be 10%YoY in 2025 full year. With the diversification of IP/channels expansion, revenue growth could be 15%YoY/12%YoY in 2026/2027.
Jintan's characteristic is high growth but high external IP dependency risk, so a reasonable valuation should be lower than Pop Mart but higher than other traditional snack enterprises.


Pre-IPO Jintan - About the Business Model, the Risks and the Peer Comparison

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we scan the Asia Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channel space for Consumer Packaged Goods to identify the verticals that have gained wider consumer acceptance and witnessed steady growth in each of the key geographies - China, South East Asia, and India. We look into the factors that enabled notable D2C brands in the Beauty, Fashion, and Food verticals to make steady inroads and disrupt the sector within a short period. We discuss the D2C ecosystem, brand journey and key challenges. 2020 has been the year that fast-tracked online retail penetration in most parts of Asia. In this context, we profile D2C brands with either a dominant segment presence or unique business model to gain a deeper understanding of the Asia D2C landscape.
What is original about this report? Insights and takeaways for Investors in Asia D2C branded players in consumer space based on our comparative study of the segment across three key geographies - China, SE Asia, and India. China's early march in digital transformation and D2C market space offers valuable lessons to players/investors in early-stage digital markets like India which is witnessing aggressive traction in this space. Insights discussed in the report have mostly been weaned from the startup experiences shared by founders of reputed D2C brands. The report also analyses investment outlook for select digitally native D2C brands with lead segment presence and/or unique business models.

 In this Smartkarma Original Series report, we scan the Asia Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) channel space for Consumer Packaged Goods to identify the verticals that have gained wider consumer acceptance and witnessed steady growth in each of the key geographies - China, South East Asia, and India. We look into the factors that enabled notable D2C brands in the Beauty, Fashion, and Food verticals to make steady inroads and disrupt the sector within a short period. We discuss the D2C ecosystem, brand journey and key challenges. 2020 has been the year that fast-tracked online retail penetration in most parts of Asia. In this context, we profile D2C brands with either a dominant segment presence or unique business model to gain a deeper understanding of the Asia D2C landscape.
What is original about this report? Insights and takeaways for Investors in Asia D2C branded players in consumer space based on our comparative study of the segment across three key geographies - China, SE Asia, and India. China's early march in digital transformation and D2C market space offers valuable lessons to players/investors in early-stage digital markets like India which is witnessing aggressive traction in this space. Insights discussed in the report have mostly been weaned from the startup experiences shared by founders of reputed D2C brands. The report also analyses investment outlook for select digitally native D2C brands with lead segment presence and/or unique business models.

D2C Brands in Asia: Disruption Potential in Consumer Space

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a>'s 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1% places it ahead of most peers in F&amp;B retailing, including the tea beverage sector. </li>
<li>Operating on a franchise model, its 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs are not expensive, as peers ex-<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a> are averaging at 15x and 12.4x. </li>
<li>It is difficult to trade at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue (2097 HK)</a>'s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming (1364 HK)</a>'s ~20x, due to lower margins. Our fair value is 16.5x PER, equalling HK$300.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)'s 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1% places it ahead of most peers in F&amp;B retailing, including the tea beverage sector. 
Operating on a franchise model, its 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs are not expensive, as peers ex-Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) are averaging at 15x and 12.4x. 
It is difficult to trade at Mixue (2097 HK)'s and Guming (1364 HK)'s ~20x, due to lower margins. Our fair value is 16.5x PER, equalling HK$300.


Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a> is a food and beverage retailer in China. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/busy-ming-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:217547" rel="noopener">Busy Ming IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) is a food and beverage retailer in China. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million.
I previously discussed the IPO in Busy Ming IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front,  a few US$1bn+ IPOs are said to be looking to launch later this month, across regions.</li>
<li>On the placements front, deals continue to flow through as the market remains receptive. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front,  a few US$1bn+ IPOs are said to be looking to launch later this month, across regions.
On the placements front, deals continue to flow through as the market remains receptive. 


ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery

China

Three Squirrels Inc. manufactures and distributes food products. The Company produces roasted food products, nuts, candied fruits, and other products. Three Squirrels also provides daily necessities, office supplies, plastics, craft gifts, electronic products, and other products.

Price Gauge
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Three Squirrels (300783 CH)

Pre-IPO Jintan - About the Business Model, the Risks and the Peer Comparison

Jintan's "IP+ snack" model leads niche market but face risk.Revenue expected to be up 10% in 2025, with potential for 15%/12% in 2026/27.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

D2C Brands in Asia: Disruption Potential in Consumer Space

Insights for investors based on comparative study of Asia D2C landscape across India, SE Asia & China.Analysis of relative segment attractiveness....

Devi Subhakesan

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Busy Ming has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Jintan - About the Business Model, the Risks and the Peer Comparison

​Jintan's "IP+ snack" model leads niche market but face risk.Revenue expected to be up 10% in 2025, with potential for 15%/12% in 2026/27.Valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

D2C Brands in Asia: Disruption Potential in Consumer Space

Insights for investors based on comparative study of Asia D2C landscape across India, SE Asia & China.Analysis of relative segment attractiveness....

Devi Subhakesan

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

​Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Busy Ming has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (8 September 2025)- Metaplanet, Lifedrink, Koei, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Hesai, Chery

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Jintan's "IP+ snack" model leads niche market but face risk.Revenue expected to be up 10% in 2025, with potential for 15%/12% in 2026/27.Valuation...

Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...